'Good Chance' of Iraq Elections in January (setting up possibly delay?)

[maddezmom]

UNITED NATIONS - Iraq (news - web sites)'s interim government has "a good chance" of holding national elections by Jan. 31, but voting might be delayed if violence escalates or Sunni Muslims decide to boycott, the country's U.N. envoy says.


U.N. Ambassador Samir Sumaidaie told a news conference Friday that the government plans on holding elections for a 275-member assembly in the last week of January, but "what happens in the next weeks will be important."


"The recent military operation in Fallujah has been very positive in removing a safe haven from the terrorists," he said. "We clearly have reduced the ability of the terrorists to launch an organized campaign."


But in the run-up to the election, Sumaidaie said the government will be closely watching not just the security situation and threats from militants, but political developments.

more: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&ncid=540&e=6&u=/ap/20041120/ap_on_re_mi_ea/un_iraq

[maddezmom]

1. LAT: 46 Groups Will Boycott Iraq Vote

The decision may set back government efforts to ensure participation by Sunni Muslims.




By Alissa J. Rubin, Times Staff Writer


BAGHDAD — Dozens of political organizations, many with largely Sunni Muslim members, announced Thursday that they would boycott elections planned for January as the government's leading political parties met in northern Iraq to discuss forming an alliance before the vote.

The groups' decision, announced by the influential Muslim Scholars Assn., was not a surprise, and its ultimate impact is difficult to gauge because many of the other organizations command little support. But it casts doubts over efforts by the U.S.-backed interim Iraqi government to ensure participation by Sunni Muslims in the elections. Without substantial Sunni involvement, any elected government would be fragile.

The boycott plan came on the same day leading members of the government talked about running on the same ticket, which would improve their chances of winning. They already have name recognition and political organizations that can help sell their message.

Thursday was the deadline for political parties to register with the Iraqi Electoral Commission, but there will be a two-day grace period for late filings in Baghdad. So far, the electoral commission has certified 80 political entities and 50 more have submitted applications and are awaiting approval, said Hussein Hindawi, the chairman.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1005983&mesg_id=1006031&page=

[Chipper Chat]

4. Kurdish independence ???

What's the story with the Kurds? They seem like such peaceful and intelligent people. Will they boycott the "election".? Why don't they just declare independence from Iraq (which they never recognized they were part of anyway). Discussion welcome...

[LynnTheDem]

5. Why??? Because TURKEY would launch war on the Kurds IMMEDIATELY.

As Turkey has already officially warned.

The Kurds are aligned with IRAN.

Can we say ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST WAR?

[maddezmom]

6. earlier DU link : Kurds' separatist ambitions pose challenge to Iraq unity

SAID SADIQ, Iraq -- Brigadier Rahim Mohammed Shakur's allegiance to the Iraqi Army is about as solid as the faxed sheet of paper he received two weeks ago, announcing that his Kurdish peshmerga fighters were now regular Iraqi soldiers, under Baghdad's command.

"I am a Kurd," Shakur, 42, said cheerfully last week, as his tank battalion trained with 100 Soviet tanks and armored personnel carriers that his fighters raided from Saddam Hussein's army in April 2003. "If we are ever attacked, I will stop being a regular Iraqi soldier and become a peshmerga again."

Iraqi Kurdistan's de facto independence from Baghdad -- and the popular desire in the three northern provinces to secede from Iraq -- could pose one of the thorniest problems over the coming year for the ethnic, religious, and political factions trying to craft a new Iraqi federal constitution.

The importance of the Kurds is not lost on US officials; on Monday, as American forces launched the attack on Fallujah, US Ambassador John Negroponte flew from Baghdad to Sulaymaniyah for a day to ask leaders from the PUK to commit to a smooth national election process.



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=988674

[BlueManDude]

2. They're gonna have their stupid "elections"

and Allawi will "win". I've given up caring about what happens in Iraq.

[0007]

3. I don't think the election will be held in January how could it?

What is clear is that the U.S. is gonna throw the kitchen sink into Iraq come hell or high water. This time next year I predict that there will be 200,000 troops and God knows how many more mercenaries. The Allies has been dropping like dirty dogs....

[maddezmom]

7. 11/14 Fallujah Battle Deepens Divide in Iraq

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Raids on mosques and the arrests of several hardline Sunni clerics have raised fears the U.S.-led assault on the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Fallujah will further alienate Iraq (news - web sites)'s religious minority from the majority Shiites and autonomy-seeking Kurds.



Last week, Sheik Mahdi al-Sumaidaei, head of the Supreme Association for Guidance and Daawa, a conservative Sunni organization, accused interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's government of "launching a war on Sunnis."


On Thursday, al-Sumaidaei urged Sunnis to launch a civil disobedience campaign to protest the assault on Fallujah. Hours later, Iraqi security forces raided his Um al-Tuboul mosque, a major landmark in western Baghdad, seizing weapons and arresting the cleric and about two dozen supporters.


~snip~

"There is no problem of Sunnis or Shiites," he said. "This is all Iraqis against the terrorists. We are going to keep on breaking their backs everywhere in Iraq. We are not going to allow them to win."


However, the Association of Muslim Scholars, considered the most influential Sunni group in Iraq with 3,000 clerics, has called for a nationwide election boycott to protest the assault on Fallujah.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&ncid=736&e=8&u=/ap/20041114/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_divided_over_fallujah

[tlcandie]

8. Delayed or postponed is the word on

I've heard on LINKTV or FSTV due to the Fallujah bombings and with 47 groups currently planning on boycotting the elections.

:shrug:

[maddezmom]

10. Citing Security Concerns, Iraq Factions Urge Delay of Election

Nov. 19--DUKAN, Iraq -- Leading Sunni politicians and representatives of Iraq's prime minister and president called yesterday for Iraq's national election to be postponed until order is restored in the violence-racked Sunni Arab heartland, the strongest signal yet that the ballot might not take place in January as scheduled.


The national election has been the linchpin of the US agenda in Iraq, and the interim government's main mission is supposed to be paving the way for an elected body to write a new constitution. But security has deteriorated in the Sunni Triangle, and US and Iraqi forces have struggled to establish order.

At a one-day summit of nearly all of Iraq's major political parties at a lakeside resort here in the Kurdish north, senior officials -- including a vice president and several ministers -- discussed delaying elections by two or three months until security can be established. Although the meetings are not binding, they are expected to shape the interim government's formal deliberations later in Baghdad.

It is unclear who has legal authority to postpone the election, which under the interim constitution is set to take place sometime before Jan. 31. But a top Allawi aide said the prime minister would consult his Cabinet, Iraq's Independent Election Committee, and the UN on the matter.

http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=13402836&BRD=1170&PAG=740&dept_id=226968&rfi=6

[Okieprogie]

9. They will have the elections

My guess is that they will have the "elections" no matter what. In the end, Bush will just say that an imperfect democracy is better than no democracy, and that those who didn't get to vote can blame themselves for revolting.

The real issue is going to be what happens if those aligned with Iran win the election.

[newyawker99]

11. Hi Okieprogie!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Okieprogie]

12. Thanks

I appreciate it!

[maddezmom]

13. Iraqi Def. Minister...no plan in place to secure the elections

Iraqi Defense Minister Hazim al-Shalaan said insurgents had moved from Fallujah and Babil province, south of Baghdad, to the capital. But, he told U.S.-funded al Hurra television: "We have a comprehensive plan similar to the Fallujah operation ... There is great operation planned in Babil."


The government says it will quell the Sunni insurgency before an election in January.


But asked about his ministry's plans for election security, Shalaan said: "We do not have any plan yet, but when we approach the election stages we will have a plan."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041120/ts_nm/iraq_dc&cid=564&ncid=1480