STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 18 November

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 18, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 63 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 342 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 31 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1092
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 15, 2004

Dow... 10,549.57 +61.92 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq... 2,099.68 +21.06 (+1.01%)
S&P 500... 1,181.94 +6.51 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.14% -0.06 (-1.52%)
Gold future... 445.10 +4.60 (+1.03%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 83.47 Change +0.18 (+0.22%

Snow chills market as dollar hits a fresh low

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1363629,00.html

THE dollar slipped to a fresh low against the euro yesterday after John Snow, the US Treasury Secretary, poured cold water on any suggestions of co-ordinated central-bank action to prop up the ailing greenback.

Mr Snow, speaking in London, said: “I think the history of efforts to impose non-market valuations on currencies is at best unrewarding and chequered.”

Within minutes of his pronouncement, the US currency weakened as far as $1.3035 to the euro. It also fell to a seven-month low of 103.9 yen. Mr Snow’s comments dashed any faint hopes of the US Federal Reserve joining other countries in a co-ordinated move to stem the dollar’s precipitous slide.

Don Smith of ICAP commented: “The US Administration is going to be unresponsive to any calls for intervention. And it would not be particularly discomforted by a further slide in the dollar.”

Mr Snow repeated his insistence that the US was still pursuing a strong dollar policy. However, he said that the market must decide, and analysts said that the tone of his statement suggested he was happy to go on with a strategy of benign neglect.

The dollar has fallen 30 per cent against the euro over the past two years as traders increasingly fret about the deficits on trade and government finances.

...more...

Washington Cold-Shoulders Europe on Currencies

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6845758

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - European complaints over a strengthening euro are falling on deaf ears in Washington, where officials see a weaker dollar as a key to unwinding global economic imbalances, analysts say.

U.S. officials have stuck to well-honed rhetoric backing a strong dollar, but markets increasingly suspect the Bush administration secretly welcomes the greenback's fall.

"Let me be clear: our policy is for a strong dollar. Our dollar policy remains unchanged because a strong dollar is in both the national and international interest," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Wednesday in remarks prepared for delivery in London.

His words failed to stem fresh losses in the dollar, which saw it hit a record low against the euro and a seven-month low against the yen .

Analysts say the repetitive strong-dollar refrain has lost its punch. "It's so obviously not what anybody believes," said Roger Kubarych, senior economist adviser at HVB Bank.

Still, some economists think the administration is loath to openly shift rhetorical gears out of concern the dollar's so-far-orderly drop could get out of hand.

"They continue to spout the strong-dollar mantra simply because they're worried that if they discard it they'll get a faster rate of decline than they'd like," said Morris Goldstein of the Institute for International Economics.

<snip>

"If you have just a dollar depreciation, you'd get too much inflationary pressure," he said. "You need ... fiscal tightening to give you room for dollar depreciation."

The trade gap is running at about $600 billion a year, or over 5 percent of gross domestic product, which is a level economists consider unsustainable over the long haul.

...more...

Dollar Holds Near Record; Officials May Be Unable to Stem Slide

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a1rinU9rQPPE&refer=news_index

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar held near a record against the euro and traded near a seven-month low versus the yen on speculation central banks may be unable to stem the U.S. currency's decline.

``The U.S. is happy with a slowly weakening dollar,'' said Toru Umemoto, a market analyst in Tokyo at Keio University's Global Security Research Center, headed by former Japanese vice finance minister Eisuke Sakakibara. ``It will be difficult for either Europe or Japan to stop it from falling.''

Finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 of the world's biggest economies are unlikely to persuade U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow to help support the dollar when they meet in Berlin on Nov. 19 to Nov. 21. Snow signaled yesterday he won't back any agreement to manage the dollar's decline, ignoring complaints from European policy makers.

<snip>

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. today recommended in a report to clients to sell the dollar against the euro, after Snow's remarks yesterday ``sounded as dollar bearish as possible without plainly inviting the market to sell the dollar.'' Fiona Lake, a market economist at Goldman in London, confirmed the report.

...more...

Markets see Snow comments as green light to sell dollar

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/117819/1/.html

LONDON : Far from reversing the dollar's slide, comments from US Treasury Secretary John Snow have been taken by markets as a sign that Washington welcomes a weaker currency, to the alarm of eurozone officials as the euro hit new highs.

Snow's repeated insistence on a tour of Europe this week that the US "strong dollar" policy remains intact has been received with increasing disbelief by dealers, who chased the euro to a new record high of 1.3074 dollars.

<snip>

"The selling pressure on the dollar was fuelled... by the comment of US Treasury Secretary Snow that the history of efforts to impose 'non-market valuations on currencies is at best unrewarding and chequered'," said Paul Chertkow, economist at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"In the absence of a clear statement from Mr Snow that dispels the belief that the Bush administration welcomes the depreciation of the dollar as a means of ameliorating the US current account position, selling pressure on the dollar against the yen appears set to intensify ahead of the G20 meeting."

The dollar's drop has been caused by huge US current account and budget deficits, with markets taking the view that the US government is happy to let its currency fall to help reduce the deficits by boosting exports and reducing imports.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. Madness.

Sheer madness. Nothing more than a plan to benefit the bottom lines of off-shored companies.

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning UIA and all.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Ya know - it almost seems as though the Bush administration wants the dollar to descend into the category of junk currency. This slide extends beyond ineptitude. It really looks like currency devaulation by design.

[UpInArms]

7. Good Morning, Ozy!

Yes, it does appear to be devaluation by design.

The magnitude of this move has yet to be seen.

It appears that it doesn't matter what economic data is released, the trend is going to be down.

[54anickel]

14. The U.S. Never Had a `Strong Dollar' Policy

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=aSpaAwBEf4H0

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- When Treasury Secretary John Snow yesterday once again indicated the U.S. wouldn't attempt to stem the dollar's slide against the euro, the U.S. currency fell another notch. Analysts and European politicians complained about U.S. indifference to its responsibilities.

Who's kidding whom here? What is it the Europeans would like to see the U.S. do?

A quick glance at the trade statistics shows that the dollar's decline actually hasn't hurt Europe very much so far. The inevitable pain associated with capping and shrinking the huge U.S. current account deficit really is yet to come, and there is nothing the U.S. can or should do to try to prevent it.

Such endless fixation of foreign-exchange markets on whether the U.S. will continue to hew to a ``strong dollar'' policy is bizarre and always has been bizarre, because there has never been such a policy.

snip>

As for fiscal policy, which can affect national savings and has an indirect impact on the dollar's value, you can be sure that the dollar's value hasn't had any effect on the tax and spending choices made by President George W. Bush or Congress.

In some ways, the puzzle has been why the dollar hasn't fallen faster and further, given the rapid expansion of the U.S. current account deficit to almost 6 percent of gross domestic product and the need to shrink it. That process unavoidably will involve a big drop for the dollar.

snip>

The numbers are striking. Through September of this year, the U.S. had imported goods and services worth $1.295 trillion while exports totaled only $850 billion. That means that just to stabilize the deficit, exports would have to increase more than 50 percent faster than imports.

more...

[54anickel]

9. HOLY COW!!! It hit a low of 83.10 in the wee hours of the morning?!?!

Last trade 83.44 Change +0.15 (+0.18%)

Settle 83.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.30 Previous Close 83.29

High 83.60 Low 83.10

Someone must be helping it up from there. What else goes on at 1:00 am to cause it to rise?


U.S. Dollar Falls Against Asian Currencies

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041118/asia_declining_dollar_3.html

TOKYO (AP) -- The U.S. dollar tumbled to its lowest rate in years against key Asian currencies Thursday after a top U.S. official indicated the government wouldn't intervene to halt the American currency's recent slide worldwide.
ADVERTISEMENT


The dollar fell to a four-and-a-half-year low against the Japanese yen, a seven-year low against the South Korean won and hovered near six-year lows against the Singapore dollar. The trend continued as European markets opened, and the dollar fell to a new record low against the euro.

The euro surged to US$1.3074, breaking the record set on Wednesday, as concerns about high oil prices and the U.S. trade and budget deficits continued to push the dollar lower.

Analysts attributed Thursday's plunge to comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow in London on Wednesday, that "no one has ever devalued their way to prosperity" but the "only way to get prosperity is to follow the marketplace."

Snow said the United States favors a strong dollar, but his comments were still interpreted as ruling out official intervention in currency markets and renewed the markets' view that U.S. President George W. Bush's administration is happy to watch the dollar fall.

Some Asian officials have been worried the United States will start relying on a weak dollar to fight the ballooning American trade and budget deficits.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Think that article answers my question about 1:00 am rises

Didn't catch this the first time I read through it.
snip>

On Thursday, several Japanese financial officials expressed concern about the dollar's moves, and the top government spokesman said Japan was ready to intervene as it has done in the past to prop up the dollar.

But traders now believe Japan probably won't intervene until the dollar falls below 103 yen.

From the Yen chart, it looks like it neary kissed 103

[UpInArms]

21. here's some more on BOJ

http://www.dailyfx.com/article_daily_brief_111804.html

Euro- Buy the Retrace?

Japan's Vice Finance Minister Koichi Hosokawa warned tonight that firm action will be taken if necessary in the FX market and said that it was important that rates move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals. Most market players do not think that BOJ will intervene before the G-20 meeting this weekend. Indeed, the common wisdom on the trading desks is that BOJ will not commence intervention until the yearly low of 103.40 is breached which would trip the stops of many trend momentum traders and trap the USD bears in a massive short squeeze. Of course, in the intricate chess game that is the FX market the BOJ may be already anticipating the anticipators and could start the intervention early catching the market unaware. Regardless, after twice making lows at the 103.66 level, the pair has rebounded above the 104 handle on short covering and bargain hunting.

Meanwhile, after setting record highs, the euro tenaciously holds on to the 130.50 level with Euro-zone data having little effect as the jump in German PPI prices is attributed to one-off effects of extremely high October oil prices. A report by FT notes that George Bush met with a group of US bankers this week to "to assure the markets of his commitment to deficit reduction." The news may be welcome news to dollar bulls, but as we cautioned yesterday US military obligations in Iraq may undermine any attempts to control the US Federal budget. For now, the mood of the markets remains dollar bearish and any retrace decline in the EUR/USD will likely serve as a good entry point in the pair's continuing march upward.

[54anickel]

25. Hahaha! Boosh assuring the markets of his commitment to deficit

reduction. No wonder the buck took a dive! Let's see, tax-breaks, war, more war, increasing the strategic petro reserves, more high-tech war paraphernalia, diverting funds from SS and Medicare into private accounts - did I miss anything? Yep, those plans have deficit reduction written all over 'em.

[UpInArms]

2. It's MaeveDay!

Today's Reports:

Nov 18 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 11/13
report -
briefing.com 335K
market 333K
last report 333K
revised -

Nov 18 10:00 AM
Leading Indicators Oct
report -
briefing.com -0.2%
market -0.1%
last erport -0.1%
revised -

Nov 18 12:00 PM
Philadelphia Fed Nov
report -
briefing.com 20.0
market 23.2
last report 28.5
revised
-

[UpInArms]

5. U.S. weekly jobless claims down 3,000 to 334,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38309.3541564352-827155835&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time fell 3,000 to 334,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The level of claims was in line with forecasts, according to a survey of Wall Street economists conducted by CBS MarketWatch. The four-week moving average of new claims rose by 1,000 to 338,250 in the week ending Nov. 13. Economists prefer the four-week average to measure the health of the workforce because it smoothes out errant data caused by unexpected events, including hurricanes.

8:30am 11/18/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 3,000 TO 334,000

8:30am 11/18/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 1,000 TO 338,250

[UpInArms]

22. Leading indicators fall 5th straight month

10:00am 11/18/04 7 OF 10 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS FALL IN OCTOBER

10:00am 11/18/04 U.S. LEADING INDICATORS DOWN 5 MONTHS IN A ROW

10:00am 11/18/04 U.S. ECONOMY 'LOSING STEAM,' CONFERENCE BOARD SAYS

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B29170FEC%2D280F%2D4B5F%2DB1C4%2D8FB05D6C532F%7D&siteid=mktw

Leading indicators fall 5th straight month
U.S. economy losing steam, Conference Board says

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. economy is losing steam, the Conference Board said Thursday, reporting that the index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in October, the fifth straight decrease.

The string of declines "is a clear signal that the economy is losing steam, and may start off 2005 with a relatively weak pace of economic activity," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the board.

A separate business confidence survey "suggests that worries about where the economy is heading may cause some strategic plans to be put on hold," Goldstein said. "And the signal will be much stronger if consumers turn more cautious, just as the holiday season approaches."

The September leading index was revised lower to a 0.3 percent decline from a 0.1 percent drop previously.

Seven of the 10 leading indicators fell in October, led by consumer expectations, money supply and interest rate spreads. Vendor performance, factory workweek, building permits and new orders for capital goods also contributed to the decline in the leading index.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. Nov. Philly Fed 20.7 vs. 28.5 in Oct

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38309.5052715741-827174233&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region continued to expand in November but at a slower pace than in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed's activity index fell to 20.7 in November from 28.5 in October. The decline was larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to fall to 23.4, according to a MarketWatch survey. New orders and shipments fell from their October readings.

[ozymandius]

6. WrapUp by Mike Hartman (addresses the sinking dollar)

CURRENCY WARS LOOM OVER 2005

Stock prices rallied today with positive economic reports, strong third quarter earnings from Hewlett-Packard, and the announcement of K-Mart’s $11 billion buyout of Sears. The dollar reached new lows versus most of the major currencies with the euro above $1.30 and the December gold futures contract closing at the new high for the move at $445.10. Bond prices continue to defy the gravitational pull of lower prices that would bring a higher interest rate environment as anticipated due to the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Stock prices continue higher, economic news is positive, the dollar tanks and inflation is higher than expected, but interest rates move lower. Bond prices should be moving lower, not interest rates, but the fact they are not should be telling the markets that all is not well. Something is out of line. I am beginning to hear more and more speculation the Fed is covertly buying bonds off the market to support prices and keep interest rates low. Ben Bernanke said they would use unconventional means if necessary, and on face value it looks like he meant it.

On the economic front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in October, the biggest gain in six months. Expectations called for a gain of 0.4%, but after yesterday’s PPI numbers many traders were concerned the CPI would be even worse than what we saw today. The PPI was reported with a gain of 1.7% in October which was the strongest gain since January 1990. Year over year PPI is higher by 4.4% in October while September was higher by 3.3%. Now compare that to the gain in the CPI. Year over year the CPI was reported higher for September and October by 2.0%. Producer prices are increasing faster than consumer prices, which means corporations have to eat a portion of their cost increases putting a pinch on bottom line results. Increased competition for consumer goods and continuing low utilization of production capacity are making it difficult to raise prices at retail. The CPI understates the true rate of inflation, but can still be viewed “relative” to the PPI to see potential pressure on corporate profit margins moving forward. Two big negatives in the BLS report showed gasoline prices were higher by 8.6% and real average earnings WENT DOWN 0.4%. Prices are moving higher and incomes are moving lower…something to keep an eye on.

-cut-

The Real Story:

Dollar Falls to Record Low as Snow Signals No Agreement to Stem Its Slide
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record against the euro for the fourth time in two weeks and dropped versus the yen as U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow signaled he won't back any agreement to stem the currency's slide.

"The history of efforts to impose non-market valuations on currencies is at best unrewarding and checkered," Snow said in response to a question on whether he would support an agreement with Europeans to manage the pace of the dollar's decline. He made the comments after a speech in London. (MY COMMENT: Why doesn’t Mr. Snow tell Japan and China about the "unrewarding and checkered" history of currency intervention, instead of telling Europe why we aren’t going to support the dollar in the currency markets?)

-cut-

Basically, Mr. Snow is trying to tell the European Union to get with the program and stimulate the economy via monetary and fiscal stimulus. We want them to inflate just like we are along with Japan. Monetarily we are telling them to lower interest rates and gun the money supply, while on the fiscal side we are probably telling them to increase government deficit spending to keep the money flowing until economic momentum can sustain itself. Remember that the euro was created to eventually work as a global reserve currency concurrent with the U.S. dollar. It looks like our guys are saying, OK Europe, you want a strong currency…you can have it along with its attendant problems. Now we have to see who will win this grand game of chicken. Will the U.S. begin to impose discipline on monetary and fiscal policies, or will the E.C.B. buckle under the pressure of a strong euro forcing them to overtly weaken the euro and support the dollar just as Japan and China have been doing?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fedsron2us]

51. The current administration wants to frighten the Europeans

into buying the dollar in order to stem the rise of the Euro. I am sure that the White House is relying on foreign suckers intervening in the market to smooth the decline in the US currency. They hope that politicians in Asia and Europe will be so blinded by their short term economic need for the American export market that they ignore the long term strategic implications of their actions. Its a neat trick to get other governments to give you their foreign exchange reserves to prop up the dollar. All the Bush regime have to do is to keep cranking the printing press. Of course the US can only get away with this game because the dollar is the reserve currency. The problem is that sooner or later some of these foreign powers are going to realise that they are being played for fools. Russia has clearly got the message and is no longer buying the dollar. Will any of the other major players follow ?. My guess is that fear will keep them supporting the dollar for now. This is a pity because it is my belief that coordinated selling of the dollar by other governments around the world would be the best way to put a stop to Bush's miltary adventurism and bring the US people to their senses.

[ozymandius]

8. Techs worry Wall Street

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks face tech concerns Thursday due to warnings from chip equipment maker Applied Materials and search engine Google.

U.S. stock futures were mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures pointing to a lower open while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures pointed to a slightly higher open.

Search engine Google (Research) warned in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission early Thursday that while it expected to see continued revenue growth, the rate of growth is likely to slow in the fourth quarter as well as in future periods.

-cut-

In corporate news, two major earnings reports are due after the ball -- media conglomerate Walt Disney and retailer Gap.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/18/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[ozymandius]

10. Stocks on tap for mixed open

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stock futures are indicating a mixed open Thursday, with technology shares likely to surrender prior-session gains after profit warnings from Applied Materials and Google.

-cut-

There was mixed news on the labor front. The number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time fell 3,000 to 334,000 last week, in line with the forecasts.

-cut-

"Claims sustained in the mid-330s are consistent with payroll growth of 150-to-175K, enough to stabilize the unemployment rate but not to bring it down significantly," according to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Later, investors will get another reading on the economy with the release of the U.S. index of leading economic indicators for October at 10 a.m. ET.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF8D1A1CC%2DF929%2D4FA6%2DB941%2D341B9EE3A5F5%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[ozymandius]

12. check out these charts (Careful, you might poke your eye out.)

Let's take a glimpse at how the Bush administration has done with its tinkle-down economic strategy.

[54anickel]

19. Gotta figure that last chart should still be going up as well. They've

dinked with that soooo much with that birth/death rate and all those other "creative" methods to try and avoid the Hoover legacy. I always wonder when the public will wake up and question those numbers. Perhaps when 75% of Americans are lined up at the soup kitchens?

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:15 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Not much change since the last futures update, and hence, it appears as if the cash market will start the day on a mixed note

9:01 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Futures market holding fairly steady this morning, but pointing to a mixed open for the cash market... With first-time jobless claims essentially matching expectations, traders have largely dismissed the data as a non event.... Separately, look for the tech sector to underperform in early trading as AMAT's guidance is viewed as a profit taking trigger

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Weekly initial claims came in at 334K, in line with the 333K consensus... Futures markets relatively unchanged since the release and indicating a mixed start for the cash market

8:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Little enthusiasm in the futures market stilll setting up the cash market for a negative start... Economic data out today - Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 333K) is out at 08:30 ET... October Leading Indicators (consensus -0.1%) is expected at 10:00 ET... November Philadelphia Fed Index (consensus 23.2) is expected at 12:00 ET.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Futures market exhibiting a negative tone this morning, suggesting the cash market will open lower... Buying efforts appear somewhat subdued as traders await the initial claims reports at 08:30 ET and digest some key ratings changes... Separately, Applied Materials (AMAT) beat analysts' Q4 expectations by a penny last night but warned for Q105 while Medtronic (MDT) missed the consensus estimate by a penny on lighter than anticipated revenues.

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to light profit taking after testing weekly resistance crossing at 1583 on Wednesday. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 1717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1546.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 5.50 pts. at 1569 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly resistance crossing at 1265.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1175.16 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 0.30 pts. at 1184.50 as of 5:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

15. Bush Plans Tax Code Overhaul

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58554-2004Nov17.html

During his reelection campaign, President Bush piqued interest among conservatives and liberals alike when he said replacing the income tax with a national sales tax was "an interesting idea." Just after the election he signaled that tax policy would be a centerpiece of his domestic agenda, reiterating his pledge to name a bipartisan panel to draft a fundamental tax reform proposal. That sent conservatives scurrying into either the flat tax or sales tax camp to muster political momentum.

But before the tax panel is even named, administration officials have begun dialing back expectations that they will move to scrap the current graduated income tax for another system.

Instead the administration plans to push major amendments that would shield interest, dividends and capitals gains from taxation, expand tax breaks for business investment and take other steps intended to simplify the system and encourage economic growth, according to several people who are advising the White House or are familiar with the deliberations.

The changes are meant to be revenue-neutral. To pay for them, the administration is considering eliminating the deduction of state and local taxes on federal income tax returns and scrapping the business tax deduction for employer-provided health insurance, the advisers said.

more...

[MrUnderhill]

16. Hmmm. Get rid of the deduction for health insurance???

Didn't they just expand that for self-employed people?

And won't that cause some businesses on the bubble to DROP their employee health coverage???? (Though that might help sell a national health plan).

And I'm pretty sure I pay more in State and local (read "property" here) taxes than I get in dividends and interest.

[54anickel]

18. I was afraid he was going to do something with state income tax when

he gave back the deduction for state sales tax that Ronnie took away. That helps the people in states with little or no income tax (hey, aren't those mostly RED states). Once again, "rewarding" big spenders, gluttony and consumption while slamming the working class just trying to eek out a living.

[lastliberalintexas]

23. When did he give that deduction back?

I've not seen anything about that, and that would be interesting since sales taxes are a major source of revenue in Texas and other backwards states. But it's not the primary source, that would still be property taxes. So this new plan would eliminate any deductions for them (as well as state income taxes), from what I've seen.

Even if he gives the deduction back for sales taxes, they would be doing so assuming that most people won't be able to take it. After all, who would even know that they'd have to keep those thousands of receipts necessary to itemize? The well off, of course. Still one more way to screw Joe and Jane Six Pack.

Course, sadly, if Joe and Jane voted repub, my sympathy has dried up faster than their write-offs.

[54anickel]

26. I posted a thread a few days ago. Here's the article and the related

thread. The thread has a couple of other articles tied to it as well.

New tax law could help big spenders
http://www.delawareonline.com/newsjournal/business/kristof/11142004.html

The recently passed American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 includes a provision that gives taxpayers who itemize deductions a choice: They can write off the state income taxes they pay, or they can choose to claim their sales taxes instead.

This new tax break was pushed by members of Congress in states without income taxes, who saw it as a way of getting their residents an added deduction. But it also has potential for big spenders in some other states. The catch: To get any real mileage out of the deduction, taxpayers may need to maintain a shoebox full of receipts.

Clint Stretch, director of tax policy with Deloitte & Touche in Washington said this provision would have the greatest effect in the seven states that either have no income tax or assess taxes only on dividends and interest. "But someone in a state like California might want to consider this if they had low income but high wealth, so they found themselves buying a luxury car or boat in a year that they didn't pay a lot of income tax," Stretch said.

Deduction tied to spending

For instance, a family of four with $50,000 in taxable income would pay $1,263 in California income taxes. The family, assuming it had fairly standard expenses, would be unlikely to have bought enough taxable goods to make the sales tax write-off worthwhile, said John Logan, senior state tax analyst with CCH Inc., a Riverwoods, Ill.-based publisher of tax information.

But not always. If this family decided to tap its savings to buy a $40,000 car, the situation would reverse. In Los Angeles County, the family would pay $3,300 in state and local sales taxes on that purchase alone. Add that to other taxable purchases, and the sales tax write-off is likely to be twice as valuable as the income tax deduction, Logan said. In Illinois, where the income tax rate is relatively low but state and local sales taxes can exceed 8 percent, most families will benefit from writing off the sales tax rather than income taxes, Logan added.

more...


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=988659

[lastliberalintexas]

28. Interesting

I still can't imagine a scenario though where a sales tax deduction would help a lower to middle income taxpayer. They would have to spend themselves into crushing debt every single year in order to pay enough in sales taxes to make the deduction worthwhile, unless they also have enough for a mortgage and property tax deduction. And since most people would have to rely on the tables for the deduction due to lack of receipts, I'd love to see what this administration calculated. I'll have to see if the tables are already available.

But really, since the vast majority of taxpayers can't even itemize, we're still talking about something that benefits the wealthier among us (surprise, surprise). Credits, exemptions and lowering the marginal rates for smaller incomes are still the best ways to help our workers. But no, I'm not so stupid that I actually expect this administration to do that!

Thanks for the info!

[amandabeech]

43. Steal from the poor to give to the rich. It's incredible.

* is doing Reagan-hood one better.

If he wants to simplify the system, he can start by eliminating deductions. That's where the complexity comes from.

Of course, those with the highest incomes tend to have the most types of deductions, and * will never ask them to pay more.

[54anickel]

17. What gives with gold -- long term?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF4CC3B13%2D0DA1%2D472D%2D858B%2D0D249E8FE994%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The Bush Bounce continues in the stock market, but gold goes up, too. What gives?

Wednesday night, Dow Theory Letters' veteran editor Richard Russell seemed almost on the point of abandoning his long-held bearishness on stocks.

His (grudging) conclusion: "Is the stock market bubble back? Feels to me as though it is. Wild prices going for stocks that offer nothing in the way of dividends, but with all this liquidity, what's a body to do but buy, buy, and well -- buy."

snip>

Russell's explanation for the two rallies: "Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity."

Recently, we looked at the long-run stock market. (Read Oct. 26 column.) We concluded that the market was still quite high by historical standards -- the excesses of the 1990s had not been worked off.

They're even less worked off now!

But we'll see.

snip>

The remarkable thing about gold is that really has been a store of value. Adjusted for inflation, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 has fluctuated around about a dollar ever since.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Pioneer of Sham Tax Havens Sits Down for a Pre-Jail Chat

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/18/business/18tax.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1100789960-k9m1awslVT95NEle/TkHQQ

SEATTLE, Nov. 17 - Jerome Schneider, the nation's best-known seller of fraudulent offshore banks, said in an interview today that he had helped hundreds of rich Americans evade taxes, including actors, celebrities and business owners.

Mr. Schneider, who pleaded guilty in February to conspiring to help his clients evade the tax laws, said that he expected "every single one" of his clients to be prosecuted or sued for the taxes they evaded. He said clients sought to evade taxes on incomes ranging from $100,000 to $40 million, though most were from a third to half a million dollars.

Mr. Schneider, 53, spoke in a cramped hotel room here under the watchful eye of three Internal Revenue Service criminal investigators, who said nothing but smiled broadly at times as he answered questions and named clients and associates. The I.R.S. set up the interview with Mr. Schneider but did not interfere with it. The agency, by law, cannot comment on individual taxpayers.

Under the terms of his agreement with the government to plead guilty, Mr. Schneider may not make any public comments about his former clients "without prior consent of the government." He is to be sentenced on Monday in Federal District Court in Los Angeles. In return for his cooperation, he is expected to serve no more than 24 months in prison. He has already paid $100,000 in restitution.

Mr. Schneider said he always reported his full income to the I.R.S. and never personally used an offshore bank to hide income.

Since 1976, Mr. Schneider has set up sham banks for clients in the Cayman Islands, Grenada, Montserratt, Vanuatu, the Cook Islands and, recently, in Nauru, a Pacific island.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Oil market pullback may be short-lived

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6513898/

snip>

But the latest supply numbers reported Wednesday include some ominous signs that prices could soon be headed higher again — especially for heating oil and diesel fuel. And with global demand for oil pushing the limits of world production capacity, these large, sudden price swings may become much more common, analysts say.

snip>

Oil traders have been keeping a close watch on the weekly inventory numbers because the usual fallback — big production increases by major OPEC producers — no longer seems likely. Global production is now running just one percent above the world's daily consumption of 82.4 million barrels, a razor thin cushion that leaves little room for either a production outage or a further increase in demand.

Oil industry experts are divided on whether new oil supplies can be found quickly enough to keep up with growing demand. One leading proponent of the theory that oil production is peaking, Princeton University geologist Kenneth Deffeyes, predicts that global output will reach its limit by late next year and then gradually begin declining.

Meanwhile, global demand shows no signs of slowing, particularly in major developing nations like China and India. In its latest report, the U.S. Department of Energy once again bumped up its estimates of oil demand this year to show a 3.5 percent gain over last year. And demand is expected to grow another 2.4 percent next year.

Oil supplies may get even tighter if China and India follow through with plans to develop their own strategic petroleum reserves, similar to stockpiles currently held by the U.S. and European nations. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, currently set to top out at about 725 million barrels, would be increased to 1 billion barrels if the Bush administration's pending energy bill is approved by Congress. Diverting oil into those strategic stockpiles would take hundreds of millions of barrels of oil off the market and further tighten supplies.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Chinese banks race to meet benchmarks

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4bc9273e-38cc-11d9-bc76-00000e2511c8.html

China's banking reforms are proceeding at an unprecedented pace with 11 more banks set to meet global standards for capital adequacy by the end of the year, bringing the total to 19, according to the country's banking watchdog.

In a further sign of the accelerating pace of reform, nine foreign banks are also set to gain approval to buy strategic stakes in Chinese lenders, said Liu Mingkang, head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

They will join nine foreign banks that have already been granted approval since Mr Lui was appointed banking regulator 18 months ago.

snip>

Foreign financial institutions that have already bought into Chinese banks include HSBC, Citibank, Hang Seng Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, Newbridge Capital Corp, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the International Finance Corp, the private sector investment arm of the World Bank.

The nine additional foreign banks awaiting approval to buy stakes in Chinese lenders do not include the overseas institutions currently in talks to purchase equity in Bank of China and China Construction Bank, two of the country's big four lenders due to list in Hong Kong and New York next year.

more...

[TrogL]

29. Just found a kewl new information source

http://scholar.google.com/

Google scholar.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar/about.html

Google Scholar enables you to search specifically for scholarly literature, including peer-reviewed papers, theses, books, preprints, abstracts and technical reports from all broad areas of research. Use Google Scholar to find articles from a wide variety of academic publishers, professional societies, preprint repositories and universities, as well as scholarly articles available across the web.

Just as with Google Web Search, Google Scholar orders your search results by how relevant they are to your query, so the most useful references should appear at the top of the page. This relevance ranking takes into account the full text of each article as well as the article's author, the publication in which the article appeared and how often it has been cited in scholarly literature. Google Scholar also automatically analyzes and extracts citations and presents them as separate results, even if the documents they refer to are not online. This means your search results may include citations of older works and seminal articles that appear only in books or other offline publications.

Here's some kewl stuff on the impact of variations on the US dollar on the Canadian economy.

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=economics+canadian+dollar+rise&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&btnG=Search

[54anickel]

30. Guns, Gold & Groceries (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty111804.html

snip>

And while we are still snooping around in the banks, I notice that Required Reserves never seem to go up, although every time I get out a book on economics I am always reminded that 1) I am an idiot and that I don't seem to understand any of this stuff, and 2) I am always reading things like how banks set aside reserves as some big percentage of liabilities, and the starting place for every example is that we are asked to assume that reserves are 10% of liabilities. Keeping this classical 10% figure in mind, I look around at the banks and I am surprised to note that Required Reserves are always essentially unchanged, especially since the banks' assets and liabilities have both been increasing like gangbusters all this time, all these years, right along with the growth in M3, and right along with the growth in total debt extant throughout the whole freaking country until, and I think I read this somewhere but I know it is about right, the total debt (personal, business, local, state and federal governments) is now over 400% of GDP. 400%! Note the use of the exclamation point, which is a clever literary device I am using at this particular place to indicate emphasis since I cannot come over to your house and grab you by the scruff of your neck and force your head down until you agree to look at it, and then I laugh (Hahaha!) at the expression on your face as the enormity of it sinks into your brain. My knees buckle at the very thought of owing four times as much as everything this whole freaking country produces in goods and services in a whole year. And this is right along with the growth in house prices, and right along with the growth in the price of every damn thing you can name that can be measured in money, and especially those things that can be measured in terms of MY money.

But Required Reserves are still hovering around some piddly $45 billion, while Liabilities are north of $4.5 trillion, which makes Required Reserves a nice, round 1%. One percent! Now you know why almost all economic disasters start in the damn banks.

snip>

But while we have the Fed feeding us a big fat lie like that, the Europeans are not so sanguine. Consumer prices over there are rising at a 2.5% rate, which is, oddly enough, almost exactly the same as our "official" inflation. They are scared and worried, while we hotshot Americans, drawing exclusively on our own historical record of the last forty short years, proclaim this as "low" and "under control"! What makes this so sad is that the poor Europeans, running around in their bare feet and saying things like "Sacre bleu!" and "Blongqvist gesorten!" because they cannot afford shoes and Europe has a lot of prickly things that hurt your feet, have not had the fabulous benefits of an American education. So they do not realize their own folly or how silly they seem to us Americans. They don't listen to us Americans when we tell these Euro-numbskulls that inflation at 2.5% is low, benign, tame, under control, not worth worrying about, because the government says so! This makes it all okay! See how easy this stuff is?

Yet, the stupid Euro-trash, babbling along in their stupid foreign languages, think that just because the entire 5,000-year history of inflation indicates that 3% inflation is Truly Bad News (TBN), and just because it has always worked out for the worse for the entire 5,000 years in a row, that inflation approaching 3% is somehow bad. How quaint, eh?

Who is right? In this corner, wearing red, white and blue trunks, we have the Americans, using a mutant strain of bizarre economic theory that grotesquely grew from the Keynesian cancer, now sick and coughing, facing an economic Armageddon after only forty years of acting like big-spending morons. In the other corner, wearing the blue trunks with the white stars, we have the Europeans, who rely on the lessons of 5,000 years of economic history.

snip>

I also just love the part where initial jobless claims rose last week by 2,000 to a "seasonally adjusted" 333,000. As a guy whose ears are still sore from being forced to hear the lackluster "economists" of the world who used to say that as long as claims were less than 300,000, then we are still in expansion and that everything is wonderful, and in fact everything is better than wonderful, and that you ought to get up off your fat butt and go out and buy some stocks right now. But since initial jobless claims are always above 300,000 nowadays, these jerks don't say that any more. They are still advising you to buy stocks, however, because everything is, as they say, wonderful.

more...

[54anickel]

32. 12:17 numbers and yadda

Dow 10,568.12 +18.55 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,097.87 -1.81 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,182.39 +0.45 (+0.04%)
10-yr Bond 4.14% -0.004
30-yr Bond 4.84% -0.004
NYSE Volume 667,778,000
Nasdaq Volume 974,901,000

12:05PM : Choppy trading in the early going has market sentiment mixed in the morning session... So far most of the weakness has rested on technology's shoulders following a Q1 (Jan) warning from Applied Materials (AMAT 17.02 -0.32)... The news has sent the rest of the semiconductor equipment makers down despite positive comments earlier from Intel (INTC 24.55 +0.23)... Semiconductor has thus been the largest weight on the indices, and has been somewhat offset by buying in other technology components (computer hardware, networking and disk drive)....
The blue chips have held up comparatively better, trading modestly in positive territory thanks to buying in retail, industrial, basic material, utility, and retail... The latter has been under pressure on the heels of downside guidance from several specialty retailers... Energy, along with retail, has been one of the only weak groups in the blue chips... Energy has recently taken a hit on a slide in the December crude oil contract ($46.10/bbl -$0.74)... Meanwhile, economic news for the week is now in the books as the November Philadelphia Fed Index just came out and fell to 20.7 versus a consensus of 23.2...

Earlier, investors essentially shrugged off this week's jobless claims reading, as it matched expectations, and the rarely surprising Leading Indicators (October) figure, despite it coming in worse than anticipated...NYSE Adv/Dec 1453/1682, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1184/1718

11:30AM : The market remains near its highs of the day despite sentiment still reflecting a modestly bearish bias... Decliners outpace advancers on the NYSE 17 to 13 while declining issues hold a 16 to 11 edge over advancing issues on the tech-heavy Nasdaq... Positive comments from Intel's (INTC 24.57 +0.25) CEO regarding a much improved performance in the first half of 2005 and a rebound in shares of Applied Materials (AMAT 17.06 -0.28) over the last half hour have assisted technology's (S&P 500 +0.1%) temporary rally into positive territory...

Also, the last piece of economic news -- November Philadelphia Fed Index (consensus 23.2) -- will be out at the top of the hour...NYSE Adv/Dec 1306/1734, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1148/1684

11:00AM : The broader averages bounce off their lows of the morning but several stocks still can't seem to catch a bid... Multiple analyst downgrades have knocked down shares of Medtronic (MDT 48.63 -3.69) this morning after it disappointed Wall Street with Q2 earnings of $0.44 per share last night... AG Edwards downgraded Medtronic to Hold from Buy, along with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, to name just three of the five brokers that revised their ratings...

And the news has had a ripple effect throughout the medical device sector, taking competitors like Guidant (GDT 64.27 -0.59), Boston Scientific (BSX 33.85 -0.10) and St Jude Medical (STJ 75.17 -1.32) down with it... However, Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ ), which only generates about one third of its revenues from medical devices, has actually invited some modest buying interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 1210/1746, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1006/1763

10:30AM : Major indices remain mixed on lackluster buying interest... Leading Indicators for October came in worse than expected at the top of the hour, but the market has shrugged off the report as much of it was quite predictable and fairly dated... Meanwhile, news of a possible second case of Mad Cow Disease in the U.S. has invited selling interest into many of the restaurant stocks...

Fast food companies like McDondald's (MCD 29.90 -0.50) and Wendy's (WEN 35.57 -0.49) have turned negative on the news as have casual dining stocks like Outback Steakhouse (OSI 40.85 -0.79) and Applebee's International (APPB 24.69 -0.70)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1281/1571, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 921/1733

10:00AM : Stable action in early trading keeps many blue chips in the green while selling pressure in technology continues... Semiconductor capital equipment remains the biggest laggard of the morning with weakness also present within medical devices, department stores and retail apparel groups... Showing signs of strength thus far are the tobacco, internet, REITs, airline and computer storage groups... Meanwhile, October leading economic indicators came in at -0.3%versus the consensus of -0.1% and September's revised decline of 0.3%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1314/1200, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1099/1255

9:40AM : Market starts the day mixed, with slight selling pressure in tech dragging the Nasdaq down... Applied Materials (AMAT 16.54 -0.80), despite beating analysts' Q4 (Oct) EPS expectations by a penny, warned that excess chip supplies would depress Q1 (Jan) sales by about 20-23% sequentially... The leading maker of semiconductor capital equipment, which accounts for almost 1.0% of the Nasdaq's value, also said that quarterly orders would decline roughly 35% sequentially, as opposed to the 10-20% hit some analysts had anticipated...

In economic news, October Leading Indicators (consensus -0.1%) will be out at 10:00 ET...SOX -1.37

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1437 (43%) 1212 (39%)
Declines 1703 (51%) 1722 (55%)
Unchanged 167 (5%) 155 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 300 (48%) 476 (51%)
Down Vol* 301 (48%) 445 (47%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (2%) 8 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 121 89
New Lo's 8 17


And the buck continues to soar! (Short covering perhaps?)

Last trade 83.71 Change +0.42 (+0.50%)

Settle 83.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.30 Previous Close 83.29

High 83.73 Low 83.10

[loudsue]

33. Nobody's posted any Market numbers!! Is the Market Open???

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

34. Say a Prayer For the Dollar

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html

The Dollar Index came within a fraction of a point yesterday of the 82.72 hidden-pivot target first advertised here more than two months ago. Wednesday's intraday low was 83.26 -- close enough to our objective that we wouldn't be at all surprised if the dollar were to embark on its biggest rally in six months from right here.

But what if the buck falls below 82.72 and just keeps on going, you ask? And what might that portend for investors? Well, it depends on how badly the pivot is breached. We should be prepared for a small overshoot, perhaps to 82.65 or so. But if the Dollar Index slips much lower than that -- closing below 82.40, say, or trading beneath 82.00 intraday -- we are likely to experience further, considerable weakness to a minimum 77.60. That would represent a nasty tumble of nearly 7 percent from current levels, and although that might not sound like much, it would deliver a powerful body blow to China and Japan, which together hold nearly $800 million of our dollar-denominated Treasury debt.

Pending the greenback's further slippage, we should also brace for a blast of hot air from those who are likely to insist that the sickly dollar portends significantly higher prices for all the goodies we import from our kind benefactors in Asia. This simplistic view of inflation might have been correct ten years ago. But that was before disinflationary, then deflationary, forces began to overpower the global economy. Things are very different now, and we can see that Japan and China are willing and eager to accept enormous exposure to the dollar in order to keep their export-dependent economics humming.

So even if the dollar continues to fall, my guess is that it will not result in significantly higher prices in the U.S. for Toyotas, plasma TVs, microchips and such. The Asian manufacturer understands that the sale of those items, and much else, would virtually collapse if their prices were to rise in lock-step with a collapsing dollar. Toyota et al. are therefore likely to keep up the pressure, and GM, Ford and Chrysler will gain no respite in their desperate, decade-long quest to regain pricing power. How ironic, meanwhile, that talk of "inflation" should be waxing at a time when the world's debt-dependent consumer economy is in danger of toppling from its pins. So many dollars do we owe that the swift, merciful return of inflation should be at the top of our wish-list and in our prayers.

[54anickel]

35. Prediction: The future of the USA stock market

Lots of mumbo-jumbo that's over my head, but the graphs are interesting....

http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction

Based on a theory of cooperative herding and imitation working both in bullish as well as in bearish regimes that we have developed in a series of papers, we have detected the existence of a clear signature of herding in the decay of the US S&P500 index since August 2000 with high statistical significance, in the form of strong log-periodic components. Since August 2000, the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. We have proposed to describe this phenomenon using the concept of a log-periodic power law (LPPL) antibubble, characterizing behavioural herding between investors leading to a competition between positive and negative feedbacks in the pricing process. This work was motivated by the similitude between the evolutions of Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 Index.

Fig. 1 shows 9 years of the evolution of the Japanese Nikkei index and almost 8 years of the USA S&P500 index, compared to each other after a translation described in the update of September 17, 2003 has been performed. The years are written on the horizontal axis (and marked by a tick on the axis where January 1 of that year occurs). This figure illustrates an analogy noted by several observers that our work has made quantitative. The oscillations with decreasing frequency which decorate an overall decrease of the stock markets are observed only in very special stock markets regimes, that we have terms log-periodic "anti-bubbles". By analyzing the mathematical structure of these oscillations, we quantify them into one (or several) mathematical formula(s) that can then be extrapolated to provide the prediction shown in the following figures. Note that extrapolating is often a risky endeavour and needs to be justified. In our case, the extrapolations, which give the forecasts, are based on the belief that these equations offered below embody the major forces in the market at the macroscopic scale. This leads to the possibility of describing several probable scenarios. We do not believe in the existence of deterministic trajectories but we aim at targeting the most probable future paths.

snip>

Several of our readers have suggested to us that we should analyze the data from the perspective of foreigners, by converting the market price in euro, British pound or Yen, for instance. This makes sense if one takes into account (1) the artificial and distorting input of the liquidity input by the Fed (which amounts to an effective inflation in dollar terms, hence its depreciation, to be naively simple) and (2) the importance of foreign investors on the US stock markets recycling their surplus dollars. As the figures below show, the picture from the vantage of a foreigner is very different than for an US investor. The tentative conclusion of this new study is that the strong impact of the Fed intervention has perturbed the fingerprints of the antibubble, so that we conclude that it has ended in the US, while maybe in reality the herding bearish-bullish oscillations are still present but are hidden by the distorting feedback actions of the Fed. Then, the antibubble signature could be better observed from the different reference frame of foreigners.

[54anickel]

36. Is Sears a Blue Light Special?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

Retailers have been in the spotlight this week. Several large retailers reported earnings this week, but it was the announcement that K-Mart will purchase Sears that captured everyone’s attention. Besides being ailing retailers, both companies share Ed Lampert as their largest shareholder. There has been speculation that Lampert would turn K-Mart into the next Berkshire Hathaway and use the excess cash to purchase other companies. Analysts are mixed on almost every aspect of the merger. By some, it is being viewed as a way to compete with Wal-Mart by becoming a larger force in retailing by allowing it to ask for more price concessions from suppliers. Others view it as a real estate transaction arguing that by putting together two bad retailers, you don’t get one good one. The truth probably lies somewhere in between. Investors wasted no time assuming that any company associated with Lampert, K-Mart, or Sears would benefit. AutoNation and Autozone, both companies that Lampert is the largest shareholder, rose about 1.5%. Companies that supply Sears and K-Mart also jumped on the assumption that this would increase the market they sell into. Whirlpool jumped 4.5% and Martha Stewart rose 6.2%. It might not be that easy. If this was put together to rival Wal-Mart, it is likely that the company will demand price concessions from its suppliers. Whirlpool might find it more difficult to implement its price increase planed for the beginning of the year. For those looking at the real estate angle, the company planes to convert several of the existing K-Mart locations to Sears and plans on vacating several of its mall-based locations. Investors were quick to assume that these mall-based stores were worth more than previously thought and extrapolated that across other retailers that own real estate. Dillard’s has long been valued based partly on its real estate holdings. It has jumped 23% since Vornado announced it bought a 4.3% position in Sears last week. If Sears anticipates moving out of malls, this will result in an increase of the supply of mall anchor space. This could diminish the attractiveness of Dillard’s anchor space. In a recent research note, UBS reminds investors that recent real estate divestitures at May, Saks, and JC Penney have resulted in substantial charges as opposed to hidden upside and that it will take two to three years for May to unload 34 Lord & Taylor stores.

Retail sales in October came in stronger than expected. Sales increased 0.1% and 0.9% excluding autos. Economists were expecting 0.1% and 0.5% respectively. Additionally September sales were revised upward. Retail sales excluding auto sales were the strongest since May when they were up 0.9% as well. Year-over-year growth has rebounded over the past two months to 8.5%, and is on top of a 6.5% gain last year.

We have discussed the rise in raw material prices that manufacturers have been facing this year. These increases have been causing producer prices to increase dramatically. In October, producer prices jumped 1.7%. Not only was this 110 basis points higher than economists forecasted, it was the largest increase since January 1990. This pushed the year-over-year increase to 4.4% and is the second largest increase January 2001. While manufacturers have experienced price increases for inputs, they have not been able to pass along price increases. This appears to be starting to change. The consumer price index also rose more than economists forecasted in October. On a month-over-month basis CPI rose 0.6% and increased 3.2% from last year. Over the past five years there has been four other months when the monthly increase has been 0.6%, which was also the largest increase over the same period. Additionally, several companies have commented that they will be instituting price increases

snip>

Personal consumption grew faster than overall GDP in 17 of the 23 quarters from September 1997 until March 2003. This was fueled by an ever diminishing savings rate along with rapid personal debt growth. Retailers reacted by aggressively expanding. . Does the K-Mart / Sears merger mark the end of this expansion? Will other retailers start consolidating as growth opportunities diminish? Time will tell, but it seems improbable that the current trend can be sustained for another five years.

more...

[spotbird]

37. Kick nt

[54anickel]

38. 2:09 update

Dow 10,568.56 +18.99 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,098.26 -1.42 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,182.60 +0.66 (+0.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.117% -0.027
30-yr Bond 4.818% -0.026
NYSE Volume 943,269,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,303,168,000

2:00PM : Today's economic news has had little impact on equities but it has boosted the greenback for the first time in quite awhile... Investors initially shrugged off today's jobless claims, Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Index figure... But when the latter one came in below expectations, the dollar bounced off its all-time lows against the euro as traders reasoned that the US manufacturing boom had slowed... Short covering ahead of Friday's G-20 meeting has also contributed to the greenback's rise (to $1.2966 against the euro)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1326/1875, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1207/1818
1:30PM : Indices continue to trade near the midpoint of the day's range... Mid cap (-0.4%) and small cap (-0.5%) issues have actually trailed their large cap counterparts as the former areas have fallen victim to profit taking... The Russell 2000 hit an all-time high earlier in the week... Investors have taken a more cautious stance in regards to stocks that are perceived to be a bit more risky... As a result of this, it will be interesting to see if the January Effect will take place at the beginning of the year... Russell 2000 -0.50, S&P Midcap 400 -0.40, NYSE Adv/Dec 1336/1873, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1164/1851

1:00PM : Indices still trade in a narrow range as much of today's buying interest remains focused on blue chips... The Dow, which has held onto its gains all morning, has been assisted by strength in several areas; but some special attention evidenced by huge volumes, has been paid to one stock in particular... Altria Group (MO 58.98 +1.56), the world's largest tobacco company, has hit all time highs today on the heels of two analyst upgrades...

Prudential upgraded Altria and raised its price target to $68 (from $54) following the D.C. Circuit Court's action yesterday that implied several positive legal catalysts for the tobacco industry... Goldman Sachs also raised its rating on Altria, to Outperform from In-Line, citing their increased confidence that all three major legal issues are now likely to be resolved by mid-2005... NYSE Adv/Dec 1430/1757, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1199/1767

12:30PM : Stocks hold their ground despite a soft Philly Fed index report... Out at the top of the hour was the November Philadelphia Fed index, a survey of manufacturing conditions for the region, which came in at 20.7, below the consensus of 23.2... While this was weaker than expected, any reading above zero reflects growth, and the influential outlook components rebounded solidly from October's reading... Investors have also been relieved by a decline in the prices received index, which indicates that inflation remains under control... NYSE Adv/Dec 1452/1712, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1187/1751

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1404 (41%) 1243 (39%)
Declines 1800 (53%) 1793 (56%)
Unchanged 187 (5%) 148 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 419 (46%) 705 (55%)
Down Vol* 453 (50%) 537 (42%)
Unch. Vol* 24 (2%) 18 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 140 106
New Lo's 8 22


And the buck, loosing its upward momentum

Last trade 83.72 Change +0.43 (+0.52%)

Settle 83.29 Settle Time 23:35

Open 83.30 Previous Close 83.29

High 83.90 Low 83.10

[54anickel]

39. NY Fed chief sees hedge fund risks

http://www.nytimes.com/financialtimes/business/FT20041117_6538_36956.html

Some Wall Street banks are relaxing the financial controls they impose on their hedge fund clients in an attempt to gain business, the head of the New York Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

Tim Geithner, president of the New York Fed, said there were "signs of some erosion in standards in response to competitive pressures" whereas banks needed stricter controls because of their increasingly complex relationships with hedge funds.

The comments from Mr Geithner, who is responsible for regulating bank holding companies, will heighten concerns that some Wall Street firms are cutting corners to gain more of the highly lucrative business of servicing hedge funds.

Most of the large banks are battling to expand into this business of "prime brokerage", which has been dominated by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns.

In a speech to a securities industry conference, Mr Geithner said there were signs banks and brokers were "lowering initial margin requirements for hedge funds and relaxing other credit terms".

more...

[54anickel]

40. Outsourcing of jobs is accelerating in U.S

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/11/17/business/jobs.html

snip>
.
Data on the number of U.S. jobs moving overseas in recent years are scattered and unreliable. As the AT&T example shows, jobs may be cut in the United States, and employment may increase overseas, but companies are reluctant to draw connections between the two, while unions are only too willing to do so. Groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce peg the number at perhaps 200,000 jobs a year. But a new report commissioned by a bipartisan congressional commission said 406,000 U.S. jobs would migrate overseas this year, double the conventional wisdom. This trend is expected to continue for several years.
.
Job movement overseas "is absolutely accelerating, and it's changing in its nature," said Kate Bronfenbrenner, a professor in Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations, who prepared the report for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. "Whereas in 2001 it was almost all in manufacturing, now we see an increase in information technology, communications, financial services, and white-collar work, from research and design to back office." The report will be presented at public hearings in Seattle in January.
.
Some economists cite growing numbers of U.S. jobs transplanted overseas as the main reason for slow employment growth during the current economy recovery. Another 400,000 jobs added to the total 1.8 million jobs created in the United States in 2004 would be "a big deal," Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, said. But Shang-Jin Wei of the International Monetary Fund said that when a company employs people overseas, lower costs and high profits enable it to hire elsewhere in the organization. "We create one job for every job lost," he estimated.
.
snip>
.
The joint report, by Cornell and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, is the first to look at offshoring in all industries and to use the same method to compare two years: 2001 and 2004. Private consultants have examined specific industries. An often-cited study by Forrester Research last spring estimated that 225,000 white-collar U.S. service jobs would locate overseas in 2004, bringing to 540,000 the total of those jobs overseas. A study by Deloitte Research in 2004 said 850,000 financial jobs could be heading overseas by 2010.
.
snip>
.
Martin Regalia, the chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the estimate of 406,000 job losses in 2004 was at the "high end of any estimates out there."
.
Bronfenbrenner defended her data as "extremely conservative" and said companies go to great lengths to suppress or play down in the U.S. press any job shifts.

more...

[54anickel]

41. JOHN WILLIAMS' BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT NUMBERS

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=378

STAGFLATION OR WORSE SIGNALED BY KEY INDICATORS

PAYROLLS BOOSTED BY UNUSUAL SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS


While the financial markets feasted on a report of strong payroll growth that resulted from some seasonal factor indigestion, key leading indicators, of good quality, combined to send a signal of possible pending stagflation.

Where many business series covered in this month's newsletter are showing slowing annual growth, Help Wanted Advertising and the Purchasing Managers Survey's New Orders component turned negative on an annual basis. Combined with surging oil prices and the PMS's Prices Paid component, signals for a period of stagflation, or worse, are in place.

Due to continued financial market misperceptions of solid economic growth and contained inflation, the broad reporting risk to upcoming economic numbers continues to weigh in favor of indicators of economic growth coming in below, and indicators of inflationary pressures coming in above, market expectations. Where our analysis offers particular insight into likely reporting biases in the next releases of key series, such is noted in the text accompanying the specific series analysis.

This month's "Reporting Focus" is on consumer confidence, a concept surveyed and modeled only in the private sector. Methodological problems and survey biases are not limited to government numbers.

THE BIG THREE MARKET MOVERS

lots more...

[54anickel]

42. Fahrenheit Oil and Gold: China & the Final War for Resources

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Ridley/nov182004.html

In their 1999 seminar treatise entitled, Unrestricted War: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America, Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui state that in order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, “The Final War over Resources”, must be successfully concluded.

Though this could be easily blown off as People’s Liberation Army hyperbole, a closer look at the facts shows us that the United States is in a very vulnerable position on a number of fronts with China. And so with it, is the U.S. dollar.

As long time readers of the OI news know, the resurgence of gold and the fall of the dollar have a multiple factors working together. Going forward into 2005, China’s “final war for resources” will be a key factor in the further depreciation of the greenback.

snip>

Zhu Min, general manager and advisor to the President for the Bank of China was quoted in the China Daily earlier this year saying that: “The United States is benefiting from China using its trade surplus to buy U.S. Treasury paper as a reserve currency, along with other Asian nations. But in the long run, this is not sustainable.... China will focus more and more on domestic demand, which is growing fast. Then we won't be able to finance the U.S. deficit."

And now that’s what’s happening. China is reportedly selling off their hoard of U.S. dollars to help build their much needed infrastructure and spend heavily to secure global resources.

A United Nations report points out that China’s recent prosperity has raised the living standard of 160 million Chinese who once existed in poverty. Behind them are another 800 million who are awaiting their turn to live a life once thought unattainable. The demand of goods and services from this group means an even greater global demand for resources.

more...

[ozymandius]

50. Over a barrel

They have us over a barrel don't they? We have grown addicted to their cheap products, their limitless amount of cash to assume our debts. Now it looks like they're taking thinking of tending to their own concerns. Oh the irony!

We have stepped up to the plate so many times to tend the concerns of other nations while peddling the assumption that we are the richest nation on earth - thus able to do so. But what happens when the world asks our government to extend its priorities to cover the needs of people who actually pay taxes in this country? We can't. America is not in the business of taking care of Americans anymore. It's never been priority since 1968.

[Gay Green]

53. And pretty soon

they won't be able to take care of their own!

[54anickel]

54. Makes you wonder what the REAL reason behind their banks rushing

to meet the benchmarks is all about. Could get interesting, a Communist government toying with capitalism - some sort of new hybrid.

[Gay Green]

52. And if the dollar falls freely all the way into a black hole...

...China will be p!ssed! x(

[54anickel]

44. 3:20 and looking up

Dow 10,579.87 +30.30 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,103.27 +3.59 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,184.12 +2.18 (+0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.117% -0.027
30-yr Bond 4.813% -0.031
NYSE Volume 1,198,462,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,608,149,000

3:00PM : Market finds a new wave of buying interest, but the rising tide is not lifting all boats... Pharmaceuticals, for instance, has lost what little ground it had earlier following recent comments from an FDA official...
David Graham, associate director for science and medicine in the FDA's Office of Drug Safety, has told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the way the FDA is currently configured "is incapable of protecting Americans against another Vioxx.".. Graham, also the voice behind the inital Vioxx warning, named a few drugs -- Pfizer's (PFE ) other arthritis drug Bextra, Abbott Laboratories' (ABT 43.53 -0.12) weight-loss drug Meridia, GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK 43.65 -1.39) asthma therapy Serevent, and AstraZeneca's (AZN 41.59 -2.55) cholesterol-reducing drug Crestor -- that could also pose potential risks and thus, should be a looked at in more detail... Merck (MRK 27.29 -0.05), the maker of Vioxx, has also shown recent weakness...NYSE Adv/Dec 1437/1805, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1261/1813

2:35PM : Stocks lose a bit of steam in afternoon trading as sentiment continues to be mixed across the broader market... Breadth figures remain negative and industry leadership continues to be split - the combination of which has effectively prevented a rally at this point... With both financial and health care negative - two areas that consititute more than 20% of the S&P 500 - the market is poised to continue in its current range... One area that has showed some resilience in late-day trading has been bonds... The 10-year note is currently up 2 ticks, bringing it's yield to 4.12%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1401/1814, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1266/1791

2:00PM : Today's economic news has had little impact on equities but it has boosted the greenback for the first time in quite awhile :eyes:... Investors initially shrugged off today's jobless claims, Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Index figure... But when the latter one came in below expectations, the dollar bounced off its all-time lows against the euro as traders reasoned that the US manufacturing boom had slowed... Short covering ahead of Friday's G-20 meeting has also contributed to the greenback's rise (to $1.2966 against the euro)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1326/1875, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1207/1818

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1598 (46%) 1428 (44%)
Declines 1676 (48%) 1657 (51%)
Unchanged 158 (4%) 150 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 608 (54%) 930 (60%)
Down Vol* 492 (43%) 596 (38%)
Unch. Vol* 19 (1%) 14 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 153 117
New Lo's 9 24

[54anickel]

45. Possible New Case of Mad Cow Disease Found

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041118/mad_cow_9.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A second case of mad cow disease may have turned up in the United States but meat from the suspect animal has not entered the food chain, Agriculture Department officials said Thursday.

The officials released few details and refused to say where the possibly diseased animal was found. They said it would be four to seven days before more could be confirmed, a delay that livestock industry representatives said would cause turmoil in the beef market.

snip>

The possible case comes 11 months after the United States had its first case of mad cow disease. Japan and other countries are still maintaining bans against U.S. beef as the result of the earlier case.

snip>

"The inconclusive result does not mean we have found another case of BSE in this country," said Andrea Morgan, associate deputy administrator of the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.

She said the inconclusive results "are a normal component of screening tests, which are designed to be extremely sensitive so they will detect any sample that could possibly be positive."

more...

[54anickel]

46. FDA Called 'Defenseless' Against Bad Drugs

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041118/vioxx_safety_9.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The American public is "virtually defenseless" if another medication such as Vioxx proves to be unsafe after it is approved for sale, a government drug safety reviewer told a congressional committee Thursday.

"I would argue that the FDA as currently configured is incapable of protecting America against another Vioxx," said David Graham, who warned that the arthritis drug had been linked to an increased risk of heart attack and stroke.

He told the Senate Finance Committee that there were at least five other drugs on the market today that should be looked at seriously to see whether they should remain there. He cited the acne drug Accutane, the weight loss drug Meridia, the anti-cholesterol drug Crestor, the pain reliever Bextra, and the asthma drug Serevent.

snip>

"The culture within the FDA, being one where the pharmaceutical industry, which the FDA is supposed to regulate, is seen by the FDA as its client instead," he said.

snip>

Critics contend the agency ignored risks in both instances, then intimidated its own reviewers when they pointed to safety concerns.

[54anickel]

47. Gold tracking fund sees firm demand on debut

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8b342e3c-3994-11d9-b822-00000e2511c8.html

The listing of the long awaited gold tracking fund on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday was met with firm demand but also a fall in bullion prices from 16-year highs.

It is the first time a pure commodity backed investment has listed on the NYSE.

Streettracks Gold Trust - which was set up by the World Gold Council and is distributed and marketed by State Street Securities, the US financial services group - made its stock market debut 18 months after the WGC, which is funded by gold miners, filed a prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The trust, which is an exchange traded fund, had traded about 2m units by early afternoon in New York.

With each unit accounting for a 10th of a troy ounce of gold, the units traded equated to 200,000 ounces of gold or about 6 tonnes. Annual gold demand is about 2,500 tonnes.

more...

[TrogL]

48. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDT4&v=s)


2004-10-18 Monday, October 18 0.796813 USD
2004-10-19 Tuesday, October 19 0.797321 USD
2004-10-20 Wednesday, October 20 0.804376 USD
2004-10-21 Thursday, October 21 0.804764 USD
2004-10-22 Friday, October 22 0.80782 USD
2004-10-25 Monday, October 25 0.817528 USD
2004-10-26 Tuesday, October 26 0.816593 USD
2004-10-27 Wednesday, October 27 0.816127 USD
2004-10-28 Thursday, October 28 0.820075 USD
2004-10-29 Friday, October 29 0.819068 USD
2004-11-01 Monday, November 1 0.817728 USD
2004-11-02 Tuesday, November 2 0.815461 USD
2004-11-03 Wednesday, November 3 0.825014 USD
2004-11-04 Thursday, November 4 0.829669 USD
2004-11-05 Friday, November 5 0.834655 USD
2004-11-08 Monday, November 8 0.838574 USD
2004-11-09 Tuesday, November 9 0.83682 USD
2004-11-10 Wednesday, November 10 0.834934 USD
2004-11-12 Friday, November 12 0.838997 USD
2004-11-15 Monday, November 15 0.831117 USD
2004-11-16 Tuesday, November 16 0.838082 USD
2004-11-17 Wednesday, November 17 0.838574 USD
2004-11-18 Thursday, November 18 0.8285






Ok, so who peed all over the loonie? It's down against EVERYTHING. The only news I heard was about another mad cow in the States, but everybody's saying the case is unconfirmed (at least a few hours ago) and not proven to be from a Canadian source.

Oh, and Martin kicked Parrish out of caucus for flapping her big mouth once too often. No news there.

:wtf:

[54anickel]

49. Closing and even the buck is up

Dow 10,572.55 +22.98 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,104.28 +4.60 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,183.55 +1.61 (+0.14%)
10-yr Bond 4.117% -0.027
30-yr Bond 4.813% -0.031
NYSE Volume 1,458,684,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,983,378,000

Close:The market finished the day with modest gains despite spending most of the day trapped in a range around the unchanged mark... The lackluster attittude stemmed from a Q1 (Jan) warning from Applied Materials (AMAT 17.64 +0.30), which acted as one of the catalysts behind the tech-laden Nasdaq's sluggish start... But as advancers narrowed the gap between decliners in late trading, a buying frenzy turned the SOX (+1.32%) around and left every tech sub-sector surging into the close... Other areas showing strength were energy and airline, as December crude oil futures fell 1.32% to $46.22/bbl...
Tobacco, on the heels of two analyst upgrades on Altria (MO 58.66 +1.24) - citing eventual resolution of three major legal issues - also surged... Showing weakness throughout the day, though, were metals, steel, gold, retail and medical devices... The latter sector became weak after Medtronic (MDT 48.72 -3.60) missed analysts' expectations and subsequently became a victim of five analyst downgrades... Retail was also under pressure following a slew of warnings from apparel companies...

Meanwhile, the last of the week's economic data met little fanfare, as investors shrugged off most of the news... The November Philadelphia Fed Index fell to 20.7 (consensus of 23.2), bouncing the dollar from yesterday's lows against the euro, but doing little to create broad-based interest in the way of equities even though the number signaled solid expansion in the region's manufacturing... Weekly jobless claims of 333K came close to the consensus of 334K, while October Leading Indicators checked in at -0.3% (consensus -0.1%)...

Leading Indicators were ignored as it is largely a compendium of earlier economic releases, and initial claims made little impact as it confirmed the expansion already seen in the labor market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1644/1642, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1491/1622

3:30PM : Equities showing resilience as the major indices extend their reach into positive territory... Meanwhile, tomorrow is shaping up to be a rather quiet session as there is no economic data being released and not much in the way of earnings... Tonight's earnings calendar, however, has a few companies worth mentioning... Walt Disney (DIS 26.38 -0.18), which analysts expect to earn $0.18 per share on $7.58 bln in sales, will be the final Dow component to report its quarterly results while S&P 500 constituent Novell (NOVL 7.14 +0.32) will also announce Q4 earnings...

Other notables include specialty retailer Gap (GPS 22.76 -0.24), which is expected to report Q3 earnings of $0.28 per share, design software maker Autodesk (ADSK 60.36 +0.04) and footwear retailer Foot Locker (FL 24.00 -0.12)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1557/1717, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1424/1674

And the buck
Last trade 83.82 Change +0.40 (+0.48%)

Settle 83.69 Settle Time 16:46

Open 83.32 Previous Close 83.29

High 83.90 Low 83.84

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio


Last tick: 2004-11-18 18:19:21 ET
30-min delayed quote.


Have a great evening everyone! :hi:

Gee, I thought I posted some pretty decent articles today - but only *crickets* Damn I miss Frodo B-)