Reply #17: We're watching the painful unraveling of the conservative coalition. [View All]

[SanchoPanza]

George W. Bush was, essentially, the right's version of LBJ. Johnson represented both the apex of American liberlism (in its Cold War incarnation, anyway) and the beginning of its rapid decline. The modern conservative coalition was slowly built up in the 60s and 70s, achieved dominance in the 80s and 90s, and the height of its power under the first several years of Bush. After that administration, which was more conservative than any administration in the modern era prior to it, the coalition began to come apart at the seams.

That's how coalitions function; a slow and methodical build-up followed by a rapid deterioration. It's what brought down the Federalists, the Whigs, Northern Republicanism of the Lincoln variety, the New Deal Coalition, and now the conservative movement. Events and circumstances pull their constituent parts away from one another and the sense of unity and mutual purposes falls victim to factionalism.

The current GOP nomination battle should be viewed through this prism; the leaders of various constituencies trying to gain dominance over the other, with none of them generating consensus. Making matters worse (or better, I suppose) is the fact that the conservative movement has essentially given up on attracting new constituencies into the coalition to help offset those that are leaving.

The question that remains is whether or not they'll take a significant chunk of America's current and future prosperity down with them. I'm of the mind that they will, and that it will likely get worse for all of us before it gets better. The coalition has to die for the republic to thrive.