Reply #6: ALERT! NOTE! That material comes from a conspiracy website [View All]

[flamingdem]

1. With respect to the plans for controlling the well post blowout, not much has changed over the past 31 years. Please see . You will understand what I’m talking about after viewing.

2. Most folks think this was an extremely poor well design, i.e. no second barrier to protect the surface/environment from the reservoir (not deposit). You could call it a deposit, but in the industry, we call it a reservoir. If you need more evidence of this, please see the BP report presented on Capitol Hill. I believe you have posted the link. Pay particular attention to the slides detailing the well itself.

3. It’s believed that there are burst disks in the casing strings tied back to surface. Your presumption that a well integrity problem exists is spot on, only the wrong presumption! Please see the presentation mentioned in #2.

4. The well is 13,000 ft below the mudline. Add in the depth of the water and you get ~18,000 ft. According to the slide noted in #2 above, the well was drilled with a 14.9 ppg mud, which equates to a hydrostatic pressure of ~13,900 psi. Typically, wells are drilled in an overbalanced situation, say 200 psi or so, the pore pressure is ~ 14.7 ppg. To quote one of the posters “It has been estimated by experts that the pressure which blows the oil into the Gulf waters is estimated to be between 20,000 and 70,000 PSI (pounds per square inch). Impossible to control.” This statement is complete and absolute bullshit.

5. As noted in BP’s presentation to Capitol Hill, there were 3 instances where this event could have been controlled prior to the blowout! Well control events don't just happen! There are always indications prior to an event. You did speak about this.

6. The drilling rig contractor’s Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) appears to have caved in to pressure from the BP company man. If he hadn't, this wouldn't be a thread today! Do a search in Wikipedia for the role and function of the OIM, it might enlighten you. I’m not a big fan of Wiki, but it does provide an adequate description of the function of the OIM.

7. Why wasn’t there a BP company man on the rig floor during a well control event? This isn’t standard operating procedure. Company men / foremen have well control training as well as personnel on the rig floor.

8. There are usually a minimum of two (2) inclinometers on the BOP. Unless you are looking directly down on them, you can’t tell if the wellhead is leaning or not. ROV’s rarely stay perfectly horizontal so using the ROV inclinometer is a stretch at best. One really has to understand the inclination of the wellhead prior to the blowout to make any inferences as to it’s current state. It wouldn’t be a surprise if there is some tilt, of the wellhead. Recall the explosions left the rig dead in the water, it’s a dynamic postioned (DP) vessel, currents would then begin to push it off location. The riser is still attached at two (2) points, the rig, and the BOP. The shear weight of the vessel and the riser being forced off location may indeed impart bending moments at the sea floor, which in turn may cause the wellhead to lean some-what.

9. With respect to subsea currents toppling the BOP stack…. Currents subsea are usually pretty much benign (< 2 knots), unless the wellhead location is in the loop current where they can get greater, +/- 6 knots. These higher currents, usually at much shallower depths than the wellhead play havoc with riser systems and usually induce what is called Vortex Induced Vibration (VIV). VIV induces oscillation in the risers. VIV makes landing the BOP on the wellhead a challenge, but once it is landed and locked typically has little impact.

10. There is some mention of the failed BOP’s, but there is no mention of the findings when the riser was cut just above the tension joint. Wanna know? There were two (2) pieces of drill pipe in the riser. Yes Virginia, there should have been only one (1). Obviously this hasn’t been made public and could potentially explain some of the malfunctions that occurred with the BOP. We’ll know for sure once the BOP’s are recovered and evaluated.

11. Casing strings are not “snapped” together. Typically, they are a premium threaded connection rated for a pre-specified pressure. This means they are screwed together to a specified torque using calibrated tongs.

12. Workstring or drill pipe can be cut with shear rams in most instances. What can’t be sheared are the tool joints between each piece of drill pipe (30’ lengths). They typically have a smaller ID and larger OD than the tubes themselves (makes the connection stronger than the tube body). The increase in wall thickness is a known problem with respect to the BOP blind/shear rams being able to severe them.

13. There are a couple variations of Deadman systems. Some are hydraulic and others acoustic. It’s common knowledge that the hydraulic systems are more reliable than acoustic. Think about it, direct hydraulics, vs. something that depends on sound waves (a transmitter and receiver, two (2) additional failure points)!!! An additional cost of $500k for something that may / may not function when needed.

14. Big misconception. “relief well drilled to relieve pressure”, NOT. They won’t relieve any pressure, they will pump heavy mud in the failed wellbore to kill the well, then follow it with cement to stop the flow of hydrocarbon. Once the well is dead, equipment will start to be recovered. Key pieces are of course the BOP, LMRP, and potentially the wellhead. This will take some time.

15. John Q. Public should be assured that the BOP’s will be dissected to understand what worked and didn’t work and why. Notice I didn’t say fail, because we don’t know what was across them when activated. Obviously the LMRP didn’t disconnect when the EQD was activated. They will have to be torn down and evaluated to understand what worked/didn’t work.

16. With respect to erosion, maybe / maybe not. The formation containing the hydrocarbons appears to be fairly competent rock (Miocene age). What is meant by this is the rock has good cementation qualities, i.e. the sand grains are held together with minute particles of cement yielding excellent compressive strength. Yes, there is porosity (pore spaces available to contain the oil, and excellent permeability. Permeability is a measure of the ease with which fluid can move from point A to point B with an induced pressure drop from A to B.

17. The well will then be plugged and abandoned. It will never be a producer.

18. The only sure way to remediate this problem is the relief well. Yes it will take some time to happen, but it will happen. Understand what the directional drillers are trying to do, basically hit a target in the earth the size of a dinner plate 18,000 feet away (3.4 miles). Not easy, but it can be done.