Reply #11: Lieberman has the Sen Caucus over a barrel. But he's clearly preparing an exit anyway [View All]

[Bucky]

There's a really high bar on what Lieberman can get away with right now. There's a whale of a lot that Democrats can do because he's keeping our guys in committee chairs. Reid knows this, so he's putting up with a lot more shit from Lieberman than he would from any Democrat. Lieberman himself seems to be going through a sort of tribal identity change on par with what, say, Ariana Huffington did six years ago--only Joe's going from sane to insane.

Still, he ain't chugging the koolaid on Bush, so he prefers keeping the Dems oversighting the Bush bunch (which is why he isn't switching sides--he certainly would be able to negotiate a committee chair if he really wanted to re-caucus with the Republicans.

Joe used up his last lifeline with his 2006 reelection. With the McCain endorsement--and now with some of the more cockamamie quotes he's putting out on Obama--he's clearly running out of options with the Democratic caucus. I'm sure at some point in the last 18 months he's figured out that he's living on borrowed time with his current chairmanship. With the Dems poised to definitely take a strong lead in the Senate in 2009 (at least 52 seats and probably closer to 55 seats in Democratic hooves) his overplayed leverage of caucus jumping will be exhausted.

Had he kissed Reid's ass, he might have hung onto his chair; but with his continuing distance from others in the caucus, he must realize he couldn't survive a challenge to a second term chairing that committee. That leaves one option for him to exit the Senate with any power--John McCain. By making himself invaluable to the Republican presidential effort (still a long shot, but not so long a shot as being the critical vote for Senate control has been), Lieberman is setting himself up for a dicey slot in the McCain administration. If McCain actually wins (God help us) certainly Joe can deservedly take some of the credit for that.

He's wanted SecDef for some time, but UN Ambassador is probably a more likely spot for him. Whatever he gets, his senate bridges are burnt. I'd lay 1 shot in 3 that he won't fill out his whole Senate term.