Reply #7: What can we learn from this? [View All]

[Qutzupalotl]

Plenty! For one thing, we have their entire strategy in about two paragraphs. They are doubtless using the same playbook for current issues, from the NSA programs to immigration. They poll early because "you have to be able to measure that which you want to change."

But in the case of the NSA, this first poll is a distortion, and any subsequent polls (with straightforward wording) will be lower. The administration will see this as trending down and either a) panic or b) stick with the language in the original poll; or possibly c) remember that they distorted the original numbers and realize that they've been drinking their own Kool-Aid. Their own push polls will be inexplicably higher than everybody else's, and any future talking points will be distilled from the questions that poll the highest. So all we have to do is watch the push polls to get the wording they'll be using and plan a counterattack, while at the same time conducting unbiased polling with the real scope of the activity in question plainly spelled out.

Incidentally, I happen to believe starting out with a push poll will backfire. For one thing, it's not a real picture that they're planning from, so they're already at a strategic disadvantage. For another, the average Joe will be even more outraged that nobody's outraged. They'll think they're all alone until they talk to someone else and realize they can't find anyone who's willing to admit they're NOT outraged. The emotion behind their future word-of-mouth contact with others is likely to persuade those on the fence that this program is not just illegal but a subversion of basic liberty. So the president numbers will continue to tank, and as more realistic assessments pour in, the number of people willing to say "it's all right with me" will diminish.