Joe Lieberman's Independent Bid - Why I Feel That It Just Isn't Practical. [View All]

[VolcanoJen]

So, Joe went and did it... he filed and he's planning to run as an independent. The deadline was today, and he pretty much had to file.

But, some of us in this thread feel that he's not going to last in this race. In fact, I give it a few weeks at best.

There's simply no mechanism for an independent bid by Joe. Does everyone realize how much it costs to run a Senate campaign? Ned Lamont gets all the Dem money, because parties take care of their own. He gets the DSCC, a veritable cash cow. Lamont gets the vast networking, the organization, the GOTV machine, the phone banks, the website, the all-star campaign staff, the best of the best to serve as surrogate talking heads to support him. Cream of the crop, all the big names. Lamont gets the enormous ad buys that win elections in the closing weeks. He also gets the blogs, and I don't think anyone will ever underestimate their impact again. All in all, The Party is a big, powerful, beautiful machine.

So, where does that leave Joe? What does Joe get? Who lines up behind him? There is no Independent Party. The two party system depends on the minority party to be a responsible and vigorous watchdog, something Joe refuses to abide by. He's on his own. He has to find his own money, and he has to find A LOT of it, and he has to find it quickly. How the hell is he going to pull that off? Is he going to knock on doors himself?

He's going to need to come up with millions in just a few short weeks for any political watcher to deem his candidacy viable. If the press doesn't get behind him in the next few weeks, they never will. Even if the campaign gets moving and the media buys into it, who's going to go on Tim Russert and Face the Nation and Chris Matthews and Larry King to stand up for Joe? Can you think of anyone? Especially after the wagons circle and the anger over his betrayal within the Democratic leadership grows?

I imagine Joe still has some Democrats left on his campaign staff, and they're going to leave him, because they have political careers they're working on, and they don't want to get blackballed by the party just to serve Joe's ego. And all those fools standing behind him on that stage last night? They're gone next week. Joe is dunzo.

It's going to take a few weeks, but I think he's going to wake up and smell the reality. He can't go it alone in the wilderness. And while Rove might want to reach out to him and help him, today. It's a Rovian move, get ahead of a story, steal the headlines and control the message for at least that day. But in the end, Karl Rove is a Party Man, and he's not going to crap all over the GOP just because he's bitter about losing his favorite Democrat. Karl's a long-term thinker, you know. Joe doesn't fit in with his November plans.

Joe won't run. He can't. Sure, he's running today, but he'll withdraw. I think it'll become crystal clear in the coming weeks.

Look for one of those sobering, "After much reflection, I've decided to spend more time with my family, and to pursue the causes I am most passionate about" speeches from Joe Lieberman.

What's next for Joe? He's headed down Katherine Harris Boulevard, and he's going to make a right on Zell Miller Lane. :-)