Reply #69: gollogas, Here's some expert input from TruthIsAll on your question [View All]

[autorank]

This is an interesting thread. There was a lot of work done on pre-election and election day exit polls. The particular polling company sounds pretty rotten. I discussed with with TIA and got this response, which should be helpful. The key point is, one rotten poll, and these guys were rotten, does not invalidate the overall cumlative measurements of pre election polls. I don't know if these polls were included but I doubt it. Even if they were, the match with pre-election and exit polls is even more proof of the point given that these polls were skewing the results. When you look at the links to geocities sites, check and see if this company was included.

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The OP premise is that the pre-election and final exit polls did not agree.
This is NOT true. As a group, they predicted a Kerry win.

In 2004, the final pre-election state and 18 national polls closely MATCHED the corresponding 12:22am exit polls. They did not agree with the (bogus) FINAL exit polls, which were forced to match the (bogus) recorded vote.

The distinction must be made between the near-pristime Nov.3 12:22am exit polls and the contaminated finals as displayed on CNN 12 hours later.

Assumption (pre-election polls): Kerry wins 60% of the late undecided vote





From the Interactive Election Model: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/InteractiveElectionSimulation.zip

Assumption (pre-election): Kerry wins 67% of the late undecided vote


Cheers

tia