Reply #11: Interesting times [View All]

[fedsron2us]

If Blair had just beaten a sitting Conservative government then he would have relatively little difficulty maintaining the cohesiveness of his party and pushing through his legislative program even with a majority of only 68 . Unfortunately for him, this is Labour's third term of office so different rules apply. The 40-70 Labour MP's who rebelled in the last Parliament have nearly all been returned to Westminster. Most have continuing doubts about Blair's domestic and foreign agenda. As they are in the latter stages of their Parliamentary careers they are unlikely to be bought off by offers of ministerial office. Worse for Blair is the fact that those hinting that he should depart are not just the 'usual suspects' such as Robin Cook. Approximately 100 Labour MP's were put the sword on election night and over 40 of those who were returned now find themselves in marginal constituencies where only a small swing to the Tories or the Liberal Democrats would see them ousted at the next election. These individuals have no reason to trust that a third Blair serving of New Labour policies will save their skins. Add in the fact that there must be one or two ambitious individuals at the top of the party who crave the job of Prime Minister and you can see that there is plenty of scope for trouble. If Blair simply tries to ignore the discontent in the ranks and rely on the Conservatives to help him push through unpopular policies then I think he will be ousted. The Labour movement
have never forgotten the dire consequences of Ramsey MacDonald's betrayal in the 1930's. The key figures in the current situation are the unions. They still bankroll the Labour Party and will probably play a decisive roll in deciding whether Blair survives. I expect that
they are already making soundings to see who is going to be his successor.