Obama's fall in the poll has nothing to do with McCain attacking him. [View All]

[Drunken Irishman]

I am tired of hearing this.

Obama's trip had two possible scenarios in terms of poll numbers:

1. A sustained gain that went well into August, the game changer some thought could happen with his trip.

2. A quick gain that only lasted a few days and eventually returned to the average number.

Scenario number 2 is exactly what happened.

Let's look at where Obama was the Saturday of before the start of his trip:



Prior to his trip, Obama led McCain 45-43. His trip expanded that lead to 49-40 on the Sunday after it began and then it quickly returned to...45-44, or a +1 McCain increase. Not a surprise, but how could it have happened so fast? Easy, Obama's trip was not about creating a quick bounce, rather to plant the seeds of leadership on the world stage. Obama knew this when he began, which is exactly why he said he didn't expect a huge jump in the polls. This type of bounce is essentially what a candidate sees post-convention. It's only temporary and expands Candidate A's lead over Candidate B by a significant margin, or the convention closes the gap. However, these bumps rarely ever maintain throughout the rest of the election cycle.

That's just how it is. The media won't report this, however, I had my doubts Obama would keep his significant lead over McCain. I knew there was a chance the bump was solely manufactured by the fact he was dominating the news with positive press, which often influences many voters, hence the post-convention bump rarely sustaining itself.

Obama didn't lose his 9-point lead because McCain went negative. Obama lost his 9-point lead because it was a superficial lead to begin with. The campaign knew this, I sorta knew it, though I didn't want to believe it, and so now that it's happened, it shouldn't be a surprise. Obama is right back where he was pre-trip and expect these numbers to fluctuate from 45-48% for Obama until the convention, where he'll probably build another large lead, only to watch it dwindle down to 1-2 points again. So don't be surprised if that happens, in fact expect it.