Obama/Biden will beat McCain/Romney by 4-5 points (which is a lot) [View All]

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Some thoughts/predictions:

Biden will get the VP nod because he's 1) paternal, 2) Catholic, 3) a great attack dog, 4) Catholic, 5) credible on foreign relations, and 7) Catholic

(If Clinton was ever in the veep-stakes, she's certainly out after today's FISA vote, which must have left the Obama camp steaming.)

Romney is all but a forced move because Michigan is this years Florida/Ohio, and Romney can at least pretend talk about the economy a little, unlike McCain.

There will be times between now and election day when Obama is distinctly ahead (like right now) and times McCain is distinctly ahead (probably sometime on September), but it's hard to see how McCain can cross the finish line.

The election will end up being a malaise election with lots of dissatisfaction over the choices. That means a base election, and that is very good for Democrats everywhere. The Dem-Pug base enthusiasm-gap is immense.

Third party and protest votes might end up being 7-9 percent nationally, but essentially irrelevant except in a handful of states.

Probably not a 1980 style landslide. I see it as more like Clinton/Dole in 1996. A few points difference in the popular vote, but a quite comfortable Dem electoral college win. Senate +4-5. House + a few.

The Malaki call for a timetable is not the bouquet for Democrats it's being painted. It would not be helpful to take Iraq off the table as an issue, which is what would happen if the Iraqi government actually formalized a request that we leave by a date certain. Iraq is a very good issue.

Hopefully Stevens and Ginsberg will be replaced on SCOTUS by equally good people.