Reply #30: Reposting [View All]

[LWolf]

it's been here a couple of times; I got it in an email, so there is no link.

This week's topic: A BROKERED CONVENTION

This week I met several people who came down from Seattle to help get out
the vote in California. I found out that Kucinich got 25% of the vote in
counties - whole counties! - where there was a strong door-to-door campaign
- and in one woman's precinct, he got 48%!
Note to self: One-on-one discussion is the key to overcoming a media
blackout.

I also learned how convoluted the delegate selection process is in the
different states, and why Kucinich could well end up with far more than the
two delegates he has now (himself and northern California Rep. Lyn Woolsey,
both elected officials and thus "superdelegates"). This is probably why
Kucinich isn't worried about the delegate count: He knows it will probably
be a brokered convention in July.

For one thing, the delegate counts you hear about in the media are merely
projections based on the statewide votes: Kerry gets 40% in Wisconsin; they
give him 40% of Wisconsin's delegates. Kucinich gets 3%; they give him no
delegates, because you have to get 15 percent of the vote to get even one
delegate.

Two very important things they don't take into account: (1) The 15% minimum
applies to each *congressional district* as well as the statewide tallies;
and (2) Some states, such as Iowa and Washington, will take weeks to select
their delegates, because they do not select them by direct vote; instead,
they select county delegates, who then convene and select state delegates,
who then convene to select delegates for the national convention in July. So
we won't have a final count for months, and it could change radically
between now and then.

Here's another reason Kucinich isn't worried about his small delegate count:
With 500 or so delegates projected for Kerry, and over 2,300 needed to win
the nomination, he would have to get virtually all of the remaining state
primary delegates, as well as most of the 800 or so superdelegates, to win
on the first vote, because he's only been getting 40-50% of the vote in the
primaries so far.

All of the Dean delegates - and he's asking his supporters to vote for him
anyway, even though he dropped out - and all of the delegates that were
split by candidates that didn't get the required 15% vote - cannot go to
Kerry on the first vote. Repeat: The "floater" delegates (my term, not the
party's) cannot vote for Kerry on the first ballot at the convention. They
cannot because delegates are pledged to vote only for their candidate on the
first ballot, and these are not Kerry delegates.

Therefore, the nominee will not be selected on the first ballot. For the
first time since 1952, this will be a "brokered convention."

You see, after the first ballot, delegates are not bound to vote for the
candidate who sent them. But they can negotiate: If you want our block of
delegates, you have to give us our plank in the party platform that the
nominee runs on. Or you have to pledge to appoint our candidate to your
cabinet if you win. And so on.

So, as Dennis says, this is the 135th mile of a 500-mile race, and a lot can
happen between now and then. Who would have expected that Dean - who burned
through the entire $41 million he raised last year in Iowa and New Hampshire
alone - would have crashed so spectacularly?

A lot can happen between now and the July convention. This is your once-in-a
lifetime chance to vote for an honest politician. I guarantee you will not
regret it.

Vote for Dennis Kucinich for President. He is absolutely incorruptable, a
man of and for the people, the Abe Lincoln of our time. He is exactly what
we have all been waiting for.