Reply #17: Sorry, that conventional wisdom is WAY off [View All]

[Awsi Dooger]

In a 50/50 race, Bush will win Nevada by a greater margin than he did in 2000. Period.

Our nominee needs to manage at least a 1 to 3 point national edge to pick up Nevada.

Nevada, like Colorado, has been flooded by high income transplants from California and other western states. They vote overwhelmingly Republican, and vote in much greater percentage than newcomer hispanics.

2002 was a horrific year for Democrats in Nevada, losing every major statewide race, almost every one by double digits. Shelley Berkeley did not come close to matching her final poll numbers. Nor did any other Democrat. The new Las Vegas house district was drawn as 50/50 yet a mediocre Republican candidate won by landslide. Dario Herrera was a flawed and doomed candidate in that race, but local exit polls indicated the district was much more conservative than projected.

And it was hardly the lousy 2002 gov candidate alone driving down Democratic numbers. Nevada is one state where national security fears have legitimately taken hold. The 9/11 terrorists met here, well publicized. Every spike in threat level comes with a report that Nevada hotels may be targets. There are annual fears of a New Year's terror strike on Las Vegas. I know literally hundreds of people who work in southern Nevada casinos. Almost without exception, they are petrified of a local terrorist assault.

2000 was the year to raise the Yucca Mountain issue. Bush had lied and misled about his plans, afraid to duck into Nevada other than one brief stop in friendly northern Nevada. This state was Gore's for the taking with any emphasis at all. Unfortunately, with California in hand Gore barely campaigned here at all.

In 2004 Yucca is past tense, to considerable degree. I saw one TV station poll, with a huge majority considering Yucca the inevitable dumping site. We need to seek those elusive over-the-top electoral votes elsewhere.