I think Bush's poll numbers may go up a bit in the coming weeks. [View All]

[leyton]

Since New Year's, the Democratic Presidential primary has dominated the news; no other story that I can think of has repeatedly been on the front pages consistently and for a long period of time. So basically a good deal of the substantial news stories (i.e., those not concerning Janet Jackson) concern the Democratic field. And the image of the Democratic field is basically an amalgam of the good qualities of the candidates - the service of Kerry, the achievements of Clark, the youthful brilliance of Edwards, the passion of Dean, etc. And what's more, it's been a nine-way criticism (especially after Iowa) of Bush.

And Bush has meanwhile sat on the sidelines, perhaps wisely so. It's hard for him to compete, as a primary battle is always more captivating than hearing Bush jet from fundraiser to fundraiser. And another law of politics confines him further: a month ago it would not have been wise for him to mention Kerry or Edwards by name, because it would automatically elevate him to an equal footing with Bush. And thus Bush has criticism coming in from nine sides, nine angles, nine different (indefensible) things, and his only option is to take aim at the whole field. And with such a wide field, he can't focus his criticism, so he's limited to making wide statements about "the Democrats."

So in effect, Bush's hands are tied, while Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark, Kucinich, and Sharpton can give him all they've got. I think this, to some extent, accounts for the fact that the emerging victor in the primary (Kerry, if you've been asleep) leads Bush by several points in national polls. He's got momentum, while Bush is on the bench.

But now we've got a presumptive nominee, and Bush and Kerry are practically going head to head even now in February. Bush's opposition has now been personified in Kerry, with all his strengths and weaknesses. Bush can now direct his attacks and name Kerry specifically, and call him a "Massachusetts liberal" and try and divide on the issue of gay marriage, et cetera. Essentially, Bush is back in the game, folks. The playground isn't just Democrats anymore, it's one Democrat and one Republican. I think as a result, Bush's numbers will go up, Kerry's will go down. Will Bush regain the lead? It's likely, since in a race as close as this, I think we can expect the lead to change more than one time.

I suppose the lesson we can learn from this is one I didn't fully grasp until I thought about these things: front-loaded primaries are bad. The Democratic party didn't have its message in 2002, but that was 2002. In the current primary season, we had our message, and we had the luxury of also having a wide and diverse field. Together, those sent Bush to the political sidelines for as long as we wanted. But it's a luxury we have lost due to the crowding of the important primaries to essentially a monthlong period.