Reply #6: Democrats and history, re: electability [View All]

[wyldwolf]

...first, that was a clever post. Still some debate on whether he was "elected," though. Further, when speaking of electability, certainly different standards apply to Democrats and Republicans. In the "more moral than thou" world of the GOP today, someone could be percieved by Republicans as electable if they profess a strong belief in Jeeeeesus and say all Muslims should die or be converted to Christianity.

As far as democrats, it is a more complicated road, IMO. Look at the history:

In the 13 presidential elections since World War II (excluding the 2000 election, where the actual winner is still a matter of debate),

Democrats who were generally perceived as liberal won 3 presidential elections, and lost 6. Democrats perceived as middle-of-the-road won 4 elections and lost 1.

Democratic candidates from southern states won 4 times and lost once; those from mid-western and eastern states won once and lost 6 times. (The 1948 Truman victory is not included, since Missouri is both southern and mid-western.)

No Democrat ever won the presidency without winning at least 5 southern states.

Polls consistently show that the American people have more confidence in Republicans to manage our national security

Since 1948, the fraction of voters declaring themselves Democratic has declined from about 50% to about 30%. The Republican fraction has stayed constant at about 30%.

These historical data portend a grim 2004 race for Democrats. To win, the Democratic candidate will need everything going for him (alas, there are no longer any "her" possibilities this year). The ideal candidate will have southern roots, have strong national security credentials, and will not be generally perceived as a "standard democratic liberal". He will have to draw votes from outside of the basic Democratic base, and must win back those Democrats who are concerned with the dangers of a post 9/11 world.

-- Peter Stein is a member of the Ithaca Town Board and a Professor of physics at Cornell University.