The horse race numbers are more important than the individual state polls because they are fresher at this point and the lion's share of them show movement to Kerry...
We have several things going for us....
Undecideds break for the challenger...
Big turnouts traditionally favor challengers because more folks will come out to vote against the status quo than to maintain it...
And Democrats underpoll because more of them are downscale and harder to reach...
We can even afford to break even with challengers because we will win the turnout game huge...
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