Reply #39: Yup, just another crappy poll ***NOT AN EXIT POLL*** [View All]

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This poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 among a random national sample of 2,414 adults, including 2,084 registered voters and 1,666 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates.


So 9% of that sample says that they have already voted. Of that 9%, 51% say they have voted for *. What a useless statistic.


That doesn't mean Bush is "winning" the absentee vote; the difference is within sampling tolerances. And among all likely voters, including those waiting for Election Day, the race is essentially tied: Forty-nine percent support Kerry and 48 percent Bush, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader in interviews Friday through Monday.