UPLIFTING analysis-- Kerry will trounce Bush in debate! [View All]

[latebloomer]

The following email was forwarded to me by a friend-- the original writer is named Wayne T.

From his keyboard to the Goddess' ears!!

It's working out EXACTLY as I told you it would,
and it's a BEAUTIFUL thing to watch unfolding.  
Trust me, the brilliance and elegance of this campaign
will be studied for many many years to come.

Kerry *chose* to be dark in August, for a couple of reasons.

1. Save some of the $75 million in fed funds for LATE ads (which will be
more effective).

2. Lower expectations; let people think he meanders, that he can't be clear,
etc., so that when he DOES deliver smart and concise answers they will be
pleasantly *surprised* at his capability.


3. LET Bush (yes, I said *LET* Bush) get a slight lead.  This way, Kerry can
go on the attack without it seeming inappropriate or "mean", which it would
if he were in the lead.  Kerry needs a "license" (i.e. public expectations)
to attack this incumbent president before he can get away with it, or else
he would just seem nasty and unpatriotic and it would backfire.  When the
public is ASKING for him to get tough (which he is TOTALLY capable of doing,
as you've seen recently), wondering aloud why he HASN'T been forceful
enough, he not only has "permission" to do it, but he is surpassing the
INTENTIONALLY lowered expectations of the people who DIDN'T think he could.
Look, he needs to win this election on OFFENSE, criticizing Bush on all of
his many failures.  By setting the expectations of himself so low, he can
win the debate much more easily.  On Thursday, Bush isn't going to know what
hit him and the American people - FORTY-FOUR MILLION are expected to watch -
are going to see the Kerry that I've seen so many times on C-SPAN, CNN,
MSNBC, etc.  THAT Kerry is an amazing, strong, straightforward LEADER with
strength AND brilliance.  Bush will be left in a smoking crater, and Kerry
will pop TEN points in the polls.

4. His powder is as dry as a silica pack.  He has HUNDREDS of points on
which he can AND WILL effectively attack Bush.  He started these attacks
months ago, during the primary, and they were VERY effective.  But then he
toned it back down... on purpose.  If he had kept those sharp jabs on the
front burner, not only would Rove have had the opportunity to prepare and
promulgate deflecting comments to spin away Kerry's attacks, but people
would be sick of hearing "that guy who criticizes the president all the
time" and wouldn't listen when he gets to the debate.  There is NO DOUBT IN
MY MIND that James Carville, Mike McCurry and Joe Lockhart have filled
Kerry's quiver with STUNNING one-liner criticisms of Bush's miserable
record - hell, it's EASY if you think about it.  Most Americans, who don't
care about this stuff nearly as much as we do, have *assumed* they will vote
for the president when the time comes and they'll firmly make up their minds
after watching the debates.  These are people who haven't heard Kerry
deliver anything like these criticisms yet, and when they do, their normal
assumption that the guy in office was doing pretty ok ("well, he IS the
president, after all") will be shattered right in front of them.  And I
think Kerry WILL even actually get to Bush and rattle him.  It happened with
John McCain in 2000 and was very obvious and shocking, but he wasn't the
"war president" then, and hadn't even won the primaries, so it wasn't as big
of a story.  THEN.

All roads lead, and have ALWAYS led, to Thursday night.  All the
calculations of this campaign hinge on the fact that Kerry *will* smoke Bush
hugely.  It's all set up now, we are in the endgame, and the endgame is
EXACTLY where Kerry shows his best stuff.  Look, these men running his
campaign are brilliant, as is he.  They KNOW everything that we know about
how important this election is - they KNOW what's at stake.  The men on the
other side think they can just keep on counting on Rove to hit home runs and
give them more and more points in their egotistical power game, but this
country - and Kerry's campaign - know better.  When Kerry delivers Truth,
which hasn't gotten through in all this time to the Fox viewers (and the
heretofore-nothing-political-viewers) in ways that are shockingly simple and
undeniable, it will pull them out of their chairs with the sudden strong
desire to vote for Kerry.

When running against an incumbent president, the way to win is first to
convince the voters that he is not the right guy, THEN convince them that
you ARE the right guy.  It will only take the tiniest little shove to finish
the job on convincing them that Bush is wrong, but with Kerry delivering the
death blow, his little Judo move (the debate) will also reassure the
on-the-fencers that he has the guts to fight the hard fight, that he does it
without hesitation, and that he does it SMART.

Watch and see a brilliant campaign unfolding.  You ain't seen NOTHING yet,
and it's still a dead heat!  :-)