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Edited on Tue Apr-15-08 06:12 PM by KansasVoter
If you are an Obama supporter you don’t need to read this post. You already know that Obama cannot lose the delegate count. You can go back to reading books and other things.
If you are a Hillary supporter who also knows that Hillary cannot win the delegate count you can stop reading also. I hope this is most of you!
But if you are a Hillary supporter who actually thinks Hillary still has a shot at the nomination and is posting poll results showing Hillary leading in the upcoming primaries you need to read this. I will try to make it really simple for you. It does involve math so try to keep up.
Let’s give Hillary a 14 point win in PA. This is the poll you math challenged Hillary supporters keep posting about today. That is the highest poll that is currently out there. Even after a 14 point win in PA Hillary is 142 delegates behind. If this is confusing just reread this paragraph until it makes sense.
Then let’s give Hillary a 20 point lead in Guam. No delegate gain for Hillary there.
After Guam is Indiana and North Carolina. Let’s give Hillary a 16 point win in Indiana. That is once again a poll you Math Challenged Hillary supporters are talking about today. A 16 point win in Indiana still puts Hillary 132 delegates behind Obama. Yes, 132 delegates. I know math is hard but if you read this over and over again it will make sense to you. Don’t get frustrated. I know it is confusing.
Then let’s say Hillary wins North Carolina even though every poll shows him winning that state. I want to give you math challenged Hillary supporters all the advantage I can. Let’s say Hillary wins NC by 10 points. That still puts Hillary 121 delegates behind! Yes 121 delegates behind. That is a big number. It is what you get if you add 100 and 21 together.
I know you Hillary supporters may have a headache at this point so I will speed up the rest of the remaining 8 elections. If Hillary wins ALL of the remaining 8 elections, and this is including Florida and Michigan because I know you Hillary supporters whine about those daily, if she wins all 8 by 16 points she is STILL 47 delegates behind. I want to make sure you understand that she is 47 delegates BEHIND not ahead. She is still losing at this point!
And I promise there are no remaining states left. That is it. Hillary can win every remaining state by 16 points and North Carolina by 10 points and Hillary is still 50 delegates down. Yes, Obama wins the elected delegate count. And remember, Hillary only won Ohio, which was "HER STATE" by 9 points!
Please read the above 7 paragraphs over and over again until you realize that polls don’t matter. Hillary cannot beat Obama in the primaries. If this is still confusing please locate an Obama supporter and they will explain it to you!
Now, you Hillary supporters are hoping special delegates called “Super Delegates” might give Hillary the nomination. Well I am sad to report that there is no way they will take a 50 delegate lead away from Obama. A 50 delegate lead means Obama WON the primaries based on the DNC rules. And popular vote will not matter because the race was based on delegates and caucus states don’t have actual popular vote counts added to Obama which if they did, would give Obama a popular vote lead. Besides, Obama ran his campaign to win Delegates and not popular vote and the DNC and Super Delegates know this.
And Obama is raising twice the money Hillary is. The Super Delegates will not take a 50 delegate lead away from a candidate who is raising more money than Hillary. They know that the party could not survive the nomination being stolen from Obama! Especially when National Polls show Obama leading ot tied with Hillary.
So I hope this math lesson will help you. I know the poll numbers excite you but I just want you to be realistic and not get your hopes up. Even with huge wins, Hillary will go into Denver 50 delegates down and the Super Delegates will nominate Obama.
Once again, if this is too confusing please seek out an Obama supporter. We would be happy to explain it to you!
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