Clintons' Ohio Firewall Part II. [View All]

[Perky]

I have been looking at the delegate math and it seems to me that given the projections for the rest of the month and given the primary schedule after Ohio, Th Clinton strtategy has to rely on three things:


Large Obama size wins in Ohio and to a lesser extent Texas.

This not only is needed to close the pledged delegate gap but also to gain momentum and money for the rest of the calendar. A draw or a split decision with Texas will not do it...She has to win convincinly

after Ohio/Texas is Vermont, Wyoming Cauces and Mississipi all of which, while small, favor Obama.

Win Big in PA

I honestly think seh has a priblem here. It is a union state but there is also a very powerful AA voting bloc. She would have to really trounce Obama in Ohio to have a shot in PA.

After PA the schedule goes back to favoring Obama slightly and is proabbly a best a wash for Clinton

Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oregon
Puerto Rico
Montana
South Dakota

If she is lagging in overall delegates at theat point her only hope is SUper delegates, Which brings be back to Ohio, If Obama ties or beats he in OHIO.. it is going to be hard for her to make the more electablility argument to Super delegates who are sitting on the fence.

If she is still down by 100 delegates or so... her only option is going to be playing the Michigan and Florida card

I am betting there ill be condiserable pressure on her not to do that because she doe not have the delegates to do it.

So again not only is Ohio her firewall. it is the the fulcrum of her entire strategy. She has to win big there ans he is going to have no momentum going in even though she has insturuitional advantages.