Reply #34: Crude oil will matter less with time and price... [View All]

[Vulture]

...which is one of the many ways the consequences of Peak Oil are based on a narrow economic model. Sure, the production of crude oil will decline at some point in the near future (though on a less aggressive schedule than some are claiming), but it is only one part of a complex market equilibrium. I do not think anyone disputes the reduced output part. The reason a Peak Oil disaster scenario will never materialize is that crude oil is merely a means to an end and therefore eminently fungible. We do not need crude oil, it just has been a historically inexpensive and readily available raw material that has only recently become expensive enough that a market shift is inevitable.

If we were talking about a resource that is not particularly fungible, like many of the platinum group metals, the consequences would be more severe. Fortunately, we seem to have a century or so of reserves for most heavy metals barring a radical change in usage, though ubiquitous use of technologies like fuel cells may create some supply pressures.