Major storms likely in '06, experts say [View All]

[Thom Little]

Major hurricanes like Ivan and Katrina will strike the Gulf Coast again in 2006, a University of Alabama climatology and geography professor has predicted, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the trend could last for another two decades.

UA professor David Shankman said that the past 10 years have had active hurricane seasons. While global warming has been a factor in the frequency of hurricanes, he said a lack of powerful, high-altitude trade winds has played a major role in the severity of the storms. Trade winds occupy most of the tropics and blow northeasterly in the northern hemisphere and southeasterly in the southern hemisphere. The winds can reduce a hurricane's strength by "slicing off" the top.

"We did not have these powerful winds the last couple of years," Shankman said. "And that allowed these storms to be more powerful than would normally occur."

.......

"When we wrapped up the 2005 hurricane season, we explained that that season was an extension of this multi-decadal cycle in which there are not only more tropical storms and hurricanes, but they are also stronger in intensity and that this cycle began in 1995," he said. "The signals are that this will go into 2006."


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