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GliderGuider
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Sun Jan-31-10 11:11 PM Original message |
| Bank Failures: Fun With Curve Fitting |
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Edited on Sun Jan-31-10 11:15 PM by GliderGuider
The common wisdom is that the number of US bank failures is going to take a dramatic rise this year. I enjoy messing with Excel, and I wondered if the raw numbers show a mathematical trend (without factoring in any economic fundamentals) that is worth extrapolating out a few months.
To see, I took the data from the FDIC Failed Bank List, sorted it into monthly counts, and graphed the result for the last two years. I found a trend line that fits pretty well (the correlation of 0.86 is fairly good), and extrapolated the curve out six months. From a purely mathematical perspective the trend is very worrying. It will be interesting to revisit this as the year unfolds.  |
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