Reply #5: They are trying to supress the vote. [View All]

[Nicholas_J]

But not doing all that good of a job. The decision in Ohio to keep out people who will attempt to challege voters is a very good sign that things are not going the way Republicans wanted.

If you consider all of the support Bush has lost among groups who supporrted him in 2000, he is in trouble. A Miami Herald Poll today indicated that Bush had only 33 percent Support among hispanic in Dade County. While other polls indicate that Bush has only lost 5 percent of his support among Cubans, this figure from Miami indicates that Bush's loss in support among Cubans is likeloy to be higher than that. Bush must get a minimum of 83 percent of the Cuban vote in order to win FLorida. Bush has picked up 5 percent of the Jewish vote since 2000, however Kerry has picked up 80 percent of the Muslim vote, which is the percentage by which Muslims supported Bush in 2000. The Jewish population of Florida has gone from 750,000 in 2000, to 500,000 in 2004. The Muslim population of FLorida has gone up from 350,000 in 2000, to 700,000 in 2004.

The Bush Administration would have to challenge far more than merely new Black voters in order to have any effect, and besides, the failure of their legal efforts to challenge 30,000 new voters is a sore blow to the Republican efforts.

Given these large number of new voters, the current polls are likely to be inaccurate. Zogby's latest poll of people who only use cell phones is indicative of these inaccuracies. Among people who use only cell phones, Kerry has a fifteen percent lead. Given the number of nnew voters, and given the fact that more of the new voters are democrats, it may be that other polls may be far off the mark.