Reply #10: notes [View All]

[rapier]

To elaoborate. Peak Oil means the peak of production. It has nothing to do with running out of oil. I continue to be astounded that people think so little about words and what they mean.

Identifying the day or month or year of peak worldwide oil production will be a task for historians. The moment won't be obvious. I suspect it won't be a momen but rather some sort of plateau. we are in the area of that plateau.

I think it might be fair to say that rising prices will play a part in keeping oil flowing at somewhere near current levels for quite some time. To put it another way, we have reached peak oil at $20bbl. It looks like $35 plus might squeeze a bit more onto the market. Someday in 1 or 5 years it might be $50 to keep the world supplied a near current levels.

I could be all wet of course. Maybe the world can continue to demand 3% growth compounded and get it for quite some time. I wouldn't bet on it. The day when no amount of money can squeeze more oil onto the market will come but probably at least not before next decade.