Reply #8: They're fairly accurate close to an election. [View All]

[David__77]

It seems that they have some validity because often the results are similar to pre-election polls. But I question the validity of, say, a presidential poll right now. It's hard to say "if the election were held today" when the conditions are not remotely similar today to those of a pre-election final stretch.

They also seem to underestimate "momentum." That is, they don't effectively capture emotional motivation. In CA in 1998, they underestimated Democratic turnout related to the impeachment. And in 2002, (barring those who claim electoral fraud) Republican turnout related to "war on terror" was underestimated. The neo-Confederate turnout was underestimated in Georgia that year, leading to surprise when Cleland and Barnes were defeated. Again, all this rests on the assumption of valid elections.