Reply #54: Some BRUTAL facts about the issue. [View All]

[Silverhair]

The Republican control ALL the committees in congress. Since W has thrown his weight behind the FMA, then it will sail through the committees.

The federal DOMA passed congress 342 to 67 in the House and 85 to 14 in the Senate. That's a very low rate of missed votes. Those are easily enough votes to kill a filibuster attempt, and well more than the 2/3 needed for passage.

39 states have DOMAs. It is reasonable to expect those states with DOMAs to ratify the amendment. None of those states would have enacted DOMAs unless there was popular support for the DOMAs.

It is great wedge issue politics for the Republicans. It is a safe vote for any Rep, and a dangerous one for most Dems. If a Dem votes against the FMA, then he can be sure it will be used against him in the next election, while a Rep can go home and brag about voting for the FMA.

Once ratified - don't look to the courts for help. It will be part of the constitution - the source of all law in the country. By defination it can't be overturned by any court as it out ranks the courts. You can't declare part of the consitution to be unconstitutional, nor can a court shoot it down while in the ratification process as it is only a proposed change - not a law yet.

Nor is repeal likely. Only a tiny percentage of the population will be demanding the repeal, and the repeal could be blocked by any 13 states.

AND

67% of the general voting populace is opposed to gay marriage. Almost all of the 33% that favor gay marriage are ALREADY DEMOCRATS.
The RW base and the swing voters are almost completely opposed.

Yes, there really are people who vote Democrat one time and Republican the next, and vice versa. They really do exist. Just because someone voted for Gore in 2000 DOES NOT automatically make them a hard core DU-participating yellow dog Democrat. And the swing voters ALWAYS decide the election.

Further, Blacks are 75% opposed to gay marriage. Latinos are almost completely strongly Roman Catholic. I would hope that you already know that church's stance on the issue. Further, the famous Latino machismo leaves little room for gays. We only need to lose a few percentage points of our base to get badly hurt.

Sorry, but those are facts, and those facts add up a great wedge issue for the Reps.

Also, remember the POTUS election is decided by the electoral college. If W loses some votes in a strong blue state over this issue he hasn't hurt himself at all. Nor does he help himself by picking up votes in strong red states. But if he picks up some swing voters in marginal blue states and marginal red states, then he would have the election in the bag.

This is a strong emotional issue, and logic doesn't help a whole lot here. It's what's called a "hot button" issue. It gets people all inflamed and motivated. And getting lots of people motivated on an issue that is 67% against us is NOT the way to win elections.