Am I the only one who thinks Bush's reelection odds are better than 50/50? [View All]

[dolstein]

I hate to rain on everybody's parade, but I'd like to point out that DU'ers have been predicting the downfall of George W. Bush since before he was even inaugurated. If I had a nickel for every post that said something like "Bush is Finished" or "Wow, this is worse than Watergate" or "Looks like the Worm as Finally Turned", I'd be rich enough to get a sizable chunk of the Bush tax cut.

I have to point out a few facts that many people around here fail to acknowledge:

1. While Bush's popularity has dropped substantially, his support among Republicans remains solid.
2. Every incumbent president that has lost in recent years has faced a primary challenge. Bush is running unopposed.
3. Bush will have a huge financial advantage over the eventual Democratic nominee.
4. Only one Democratic presidential candidate in the last fifty years has received substantially more than 50% of the popular vote.
5. The jobless recovery won't last forever -- sooner or later unemployment is bound to go down.
6. Never understimate Bush's survival instincts. Remember, he backed steel tarrifs when he thought it would help his reelection chances. I wouldn't put it past him to strike a deal with the UN over Iraq if he felt he needed to.
7. There are still plenty of Bush fans in the media.

I still think that even under the best of circumstances, the Democrats would be lucky to pull out a narrow victory in 2004. Any talk of a landslide is pure wishful thinking in my opinion. And it's entirely possible that Bush could still win big.