Is it possible that we will lose Pennsylvania in '04?? [View All]

[CMT]

It is a swing state, but we have carried it three times in a row. But a new Quinnipiac University Poll shows that Bush is still quite popular there--much higher than his national ratings in recent weeks.

The poll indicates that Bush approval is 60-35 percent, compared nationally to the 53-55 percent he has been of late. This is down since May but only marginally. In May Bush had a 64/31 percent approval rating.

Furthermore in trial heats he is whipping our candidates by margins of 16-points and up. The poll indicates that against Lieberman, Kerry, Gephardt, and Dean Bush would pull between 22-26 percent of the Democratic vote.

One bit of good news is that on the Senate race they asked if residents were inclined to re-elect Specter and by 46-40 percent they said "yes" which is encouraging. They didn't put Bush vs. a generic Democrat--I'm sure that would have been closer too.

Here are how the Democratic primary race is shaping up at the moment in Pa:
Lieberman 26% (also had 26% in May--one state where Lieberman has shown no erotion)
Gephardt 14% (down from 17% in May, not good considering the Steelworkers just endorsed him).
Kerry 15% (down slightly from 16% in May)
Dean 9% (up from 3% in May)
Edwards 6% (no change since May)
Mosley Braun-6%
Graham 3%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%

We cannot afford to lose Pa against Bush in '04 and while it is still early and no real campaign has yet been waged, I worry about Bush's stubbornly high approval ratings in this state.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml (click on Pennsylvania polls)