Doomsday Scenario? (GOP Election Prospects) --Kurtz, WaPo [View All]

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2006/10/17/BL2006101700385_pf.html

Doomsday Scenario?

By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 17, 2006; 8:10 AM



After poring over endless newspaper and magazine articles, television reports, Web sites and blogs, I can confidently define for you the debate raging over the midterms:

Will the Republicans lose, or will they lose big?

That is the consensus question posed by the prognosticators, handicappers and bloviators who reach fever pitch around this time. Very few seem to think that the GOP has a decent chance of holding onto both houses of Congress. Iraq, Katrina, Abramoff, DeLay, Ney, Foley--you know the litany. Country's in a sour mood. Fed up with the do-nothing Congress. Bush in the dumpster. Polls, polls and more polls. Hello, Speaker Pelosi.

But what if they're wrong?

After all, here's what the NYT wrote shortly before the 1998 midterms, as the Clinton impeachment drive was gathering steam: "With the midterm elections five days away, Republicans are tempering expectations that they can expand their majority to 60 seats in the Senate. Some experts say that Republicans could still harvest a net gain of up to four Senate seats but that the party will fall shy of five." Another piece said: "Many strategists in both parties agree that, for now, it appears that Republicans, who hold a thin 11-seat majority in the House, will pick up no more than a dozen seats there, perhaps far fewer." A WashPost piece said, "Much of the focus on Senate campaigns this fall has been on Republican hopes of making a five-seat gain, producing a 'filibuster-proof' majority of 60 GOP senators." (David Broder later tempered that by reporting there was unlikely to be much of a change in the power balance.)

As it turned out, the Democrats picked up five House seats and their strength in the Senate was unchanged. So much for the experts.

But being a journalist means never having to revisit bad predictions. If the Republicans hold on, the 2006 election results will just be dubbed a "stunning surprise," as if they were a freak storm that no one could have predicted, and a new round of prognostication will be launched.

I'm not saying I'd want to bet the mortgage on the Republicans' chances right now. But when everyone is saying the same thing, I start to wonder.

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