Reply #207: The scenario that would doom a US adventure in Iran [View All]

[martymar64]

The Sunburn and Yakhonts anti-ship missiles could prove to be the arrow in the US's achilles heel. The Iraq/Iran theater is predicated on the supply line provided by the one or more carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, in addition to land based command and control in Qatar and Kuwait (both within the Persian Gulf). The Iranian coast abutting the Persian Gulf is mountainous, a perfect hiding place for missile launchers. Using subsonic Exocets (also in the Iranian arsenal) they could sink a tanker or two in the Straits of Hormuz, closing off the Persian Gulf of all traffic. The carrier group(s) would be trapped in the Gulf, sitting ducks for supersonic Sunburns and Yakhonts missiles. The Phalanx and Aegis platforms have not be shown to effectively counteract these ASM's. Also once the Persian Gulf is cut off, so too will be our ground troops in Iraq who are dependent on supplies shipped via the Persian Gulf. One can safely assume that the CENTCOM base in Doha, Qatar will be rained on by surface to surface missiles from across the Gulf, in addition to refineries in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Dubai and the UAE. What happenes on the ground would be anyones guess, but I would think that this scenario would be accompanied by attacks on US troops by the Shia militias in Iraq and an invasion by Iranian ground troops, that could number in the millions. Any US victory would be Pyrrhic at best, at worst it could be our own version of Stalingrad and Dien Bien Phu all rolled into one ugly little package. I haven't even covered the economic implications of the closing of the Persian Gulf indefinitely or the International responses. They won't be pretty either.
Bottom Line: Attacking Iran is a BAD idea.