Reply #2: and yet, not everyone is impressed [View All]

[Lisa]

"BAKU -- Tomorrow morning, amid expected fanfare at BP PLC's gleaming Sangachal terminal on Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea coast, crude oil will finally start to flow into one of the most significant and expensive pipelines ever built. It's a day that, once upon a time, was supposed to forever alter global oil markets, making prices fall at the gas station near you and finally lessening the West's reliance on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

But after 10 years of hype, the Caspian oil balloon has burst. When the first crude begins its winding 1,760-kilometre path through mountain passes and around conflict zones on its way to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, few will be expecting it to have much of an impact on oil prices. Instead, the question that will be asked is: How much more oil is there, really? And how did so many get so badly snookered?"

(snip)

"But just as the crude is finally starting to creep westward, it's becoming clear that there's much, much less oil in the region than had been originally trumpeted. Instead of the 200 billion barrels predicted in 1995, most estimates now put the figure at somewhere between 17 and 32 billion, most of it on the other side of the Caspian from Azerbaijan, in the waters off Kazakhstan.

BTC will still bring a desperately awaited one million barrels a day to market once it hits full capacity in an estimated four years' time, but -- in providing perhaps 3 per cent of global supply -- it's going to do nothing to change the West's reliance on the House of Saud."

*note that world oil consumption is currently at 28 billion barrels per year -- and increasing.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20050524/ROILBAKU24/TPBusiness/?query=Caspian