Reply #10: Also - (and by the way, WELCOME to DU, all you new ones!) remember [View All]

[calimary]

if this is from Pox "news," you'd ordinarily expect the most inflated, embarrassingly lopside pro-bush numbers possible. These aren't. Not by a LONG shot. Especially when you have a poll from an outfit that's already hugely predisposed toward giving bush EVERY advantage, both real AND imagined.

They also put the kibosh on any allegedly huge CONvention bump for bush. Eleven points according to some? Well, IF that were so, that bump sure flattened out in a hurry.

They show bush below 50 percent. That is MOST significant. History has proven over the last three-or-so decades (maybe more - I don't have the exact figures in front of me) that the incumbent who polls less than 50 percent - ESPECIALLY at this late date - tends to FAIL to win (re)election. Those incumbents - and I believe the list included Clinton, Reagan, and Nixon (don't remember if LBJ was in that accounting) were ABOVE 50 PERCENT - AND at points back in June and July.

It does indeed NOT count the voters who are new arrivals, either because they're only now old enough to vote, OR they've become motivated to register and get off their butts this time. And I suspect that most of them are gonna go for Kerry.

Also, remember what's to come:

-MORE concentration on the 1,000th American death in Iraq.
-Kitty Kelley's book, which people WILL be talking about (the all-important water cooler stuff at work) whether Larry King and the other TV bush-patsies boycott her or not.
-Howard Stern - who IS probably going to eat, breathe, sleep, and excrete the Kitty Kelley stuff. Not to mention all the regular day-to-day bush-bashing he's engaging in. He REACHES those young, white males. They take him seriously.
-The AWOL stuff. Only gathering momentum. New momentum.
-Michael Moore - prepared to strike anew with the DVD release of "Fahrenheit 9/11" in OCTOBER, and the ensuing publicity. Plus, he's agitating for his film to be shown on TV before the election. So far, no dice, but you NEVER know...
-Kerry and Edwards are slowly starting to fight back harder. Not hard enough, mind you, but at least they can start spending money again now.
-Texans for Truth, MoveOn.org, and other 527s that are friendly to Democrats and liberals and especially Kerry. They're not gonna go away.
-And watch for some of those statistics, like maybe the jobs figures that were only slightly up last month, to be revised DOWNWARD. Watch the other economic stats, too, especially the price of gas, AND the pre-Christmas season (lately, starting before Halloween, even!).

Meantime, GUYS: YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO. FIRST ABOVE ALL ELSE: DO NOT GET COMPLACENT. DO NOT SIT ON YOUR BUTTS. GET OUT THERE AND BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO THIS NIGHTMARE! If you don't, think how you'll feel on November 3rd...