they would vote for Obama. President Bush carried Colorado by 4 points over Democrat John Kerry in 2004, while Obama easily won the state's Democratic presidential caucus in February."
MI - "Obama leads by 8 percentage points among Michigan's independent voters, though by a two-to-one margin they oppose his choosing Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate. Obama has a large lead among women, while men are divided about evenly between him and McCain...Clinton was the only candidate on the ballot when she carried this state's primary in January, while Democrat John Kerry defeated President Bush here narrowly in 2004."
MN - "By 16 points, independents would rather he not pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his vice presidential running mate, though they're closely divided over whether that would make them likelier or less likely to back the Democratic ticket."
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8WvoRnUTs6fEo8Os3k4YlshdOvQD91HTS780How important is Obama's VP choice for battleground state support? How little more election fraud than in 2004 would it take for McCain to win in 2008, especially in battleground states? (Note discrepancies in 2004 between Kerry vote share in
pre-election projected Polls,
state exit Polls and the "official"
Recorded Vote...Note also Kerry's expanding margin in the national 5-poll average as election day approached; he had momentum going into election day...yet he "lost".)
6/27 - 2008 Election Model Two Charts:
Battleground State polls,
Battleground state win probability ( AZ, AR,
CO, FL, IA,
MI, MO,
MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WI )
...
"Obama better realize that a grass roots campaign, rallies, polls, and predictions are MEANINGLESS if there is no fair election. Only a few key states are needed to swing the electoral college while only a relatively few per cent of votes need to be altered in those key states. Kerry and Gore "won". Neither occupied the White House." — Sancho2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS — TruthIsAll
State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
Recorded Vote( Official Vote Count )
SEP – Proj
SEP – Vote
Exit Poll
Projected
EV
SEP
EV
Proj – SEP
Proj – Vote
State
Wtd Avg
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
47.7 %
39
30
45
46
49
47
52
78
45
50
42
45
30
54
39
50
37
39
40
50
54
64
52
52
42
44
36
32
49
47
50
49
57
47
35
50
28
50
50
56
42
42
47
37
24
53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
47.0 %
57
57
50
48
42
48
42
11
38
47
52
45
59
42
58
44
60
56
48
39
43
27
45
44
51
49
57
61
49
47
42
49
39
50
55
47
61
44
45
36
55
52
50
59
69
40
51
44
49
44
65
Kerry
51.0 %
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0
50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5
45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5
53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5
55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5
48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8
55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8
51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3
43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5
57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
Kerry
51.8 %
42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8
50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9
42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0
50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5
60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8
49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0
57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9
54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8
45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2
66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
Kerry
48.3 %
36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3
47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1
41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3
49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6
55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2
46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2
52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5
48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4
40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0
58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
50.7 %
62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4
51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1
58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9
49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6
42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0
53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9
46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9
50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7
58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5
38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
Diff
0.8 %
1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8
0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)
(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)
(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)
4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)
0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3
2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)
2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5
2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7
8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
3.6 %
5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5
3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8
1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8
1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9
4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7
2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8
4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)
5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4
5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2
7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2
WPE
7.1 %
11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9
6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6
2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5
3.0
1.7
(0.1)
3.8
3.8
8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3
5.8
(1.8)
8.1
10.1
13.6
9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2)
10.9
(1.9)
1.8
8.8
4.7
10.0
(4.2)
0.5
4.8
6.4
15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)
4.7
4.3 Kerry
331
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
5
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
Kerry
325
55
9
7
3
3
27
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
5
4
15
5
31
20
7
21
4
3
11
10
< 2.0%
21
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
> 2.0%
33
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
> 6.0%
25
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Sample
Poll
Final Poll
75 % UVA Projected
5-Poll Moving Average
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
Election Model
18 National Polls
Harris
Zogby
Marist
Econ
TIPP
CBS
FOX
Dem Cor
Gallup
NBC
ABC
ARG
Pew
Nwk
ICR
LAT
Time
AP
Date
Average
2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct
24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
1720
5508
1200
1166
2903
1284
1125
1400
1018
1866
1014
3511
1258
2408
1005
817
1698
803
976
Type
LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
47.3 %
50
47
49
49
44
46
48
48
48
47
48
49
46
45
44
48
46
49
Bush
46.9 %
47
48
48
45
45
47
45
47
46
48
47
48
45
48
46
47
51
46
Kerry
50.90 %
51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5
50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0
51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8
51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
48.10 %
47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5
48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0
48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3
48.0
51.5
47.0
Kerry
51.3 %
51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5
51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6
50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
na
na
na
Bush
47.8 %
47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
na
na
na
Kerry
51.8 %
51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0
51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1
51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
na
na
na
Bush
48.2 %
48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
na
na
na
Diff
3.6 %
3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0
3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
na
na
na