The daily 538 cratering of Sanders continues unabated, on the verge of going sub 20% for 1991

[TwilightZone]

12. With all the dropouts, it's highly unlikely to be 45/35 or similar.

I think either Sanders gets 50+1 going in or it's much closer than your scenario. An outside shot of Biden coming in with 50+1 if rallying behind him turns into major momentum.

Even if it's not really close, people can do the math. If Sanders comes in with the lead and Biden's the only other candidate left and everyone knows that Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and (presumably) Bloomberg have all been behind him for months, people are going to assume, right or wrong, that most of their delegates are, essentially, now Biden's. Same with Sanders and Warren. That's not actually how it works, of course, but that's how the average person who knows little about the process is going to look at it.

Let's use the current forecast as an example. It's nowhere near your 10% gap, and it only involves what are essentially first-ballot numbers, but it'll do to make my point. It also assumes BB and Warren stay in the race, just to make it interesting and because they're forecast to win delegates at present.

Sanders 1570
Biden 1484
Bloomberg 621
Warren 264
Buttigieg/Klobuchar (33 total, for the moment)

If Bloomberg emphatically endorses Biden, and Warren emphatically endorses Sanders, and the average person looks at those numbers, what's the first reaction?

Biden win, right? Don't even need the SDs. That's how the average person (read, not a Sanders supporter) is going to look at it, simplistic as it is. Again, it doesn't work like that, but I'm making it simple to make the point.

The only scenario that I see really causing a problem is if Sanders has a big lead, but not a majority, after the first ballot, but it's close enough that the SDs can all rally behind Biden and it's just enough for him to win 51/49 or something. I'm not sure that's even mathematically possible and I'm too lazy to do the math, but let's say it is. Outside of that or something similar happening, I just don't think most voters are going to care.

Of course, Sanders knows that which is why he's jacking up his supporters and trying to plant the seed that the whole thing is *already* unfair to him, simply by default, setting the table to bitch about it regardless.