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Democratic Primaries

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,781 posts)

21. This dovetails with an analysis I saw on CNN last week

Reply to Celerity (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 03:27 AM

Mar 2020

Basically, the theme was that a bunch of the Super Tuesday states (this was before South Carolina, to be fair) have three candidates that are viable in the ~15 - 25% range. Meaning that there are good odds for 3 way splits of the delegates in many of the states, thus raising the odds dramatically that "no one will win." This weekend has been news about Biden. Super Tuesday may very well be news about Mike Bloomberg.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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21 replies

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538 just updated delegate projections, Bernie is plummeting, now under 25% chance to win outright [View all] Celerity Mar 2020 OP

Jesus, Biden fell as well. LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #1

yes, let's hope Super Tuesday breaks hard against Bernie Celerity Mar 2020 #3

Im pretty sure that was the same as earlier today. honest.abe Mar 2020 #2

look at my snapshots, they removed Pete real time Celerity Mar 2020 #5

Yeah, but I believe those numbers didnt change. honest.abe Mar 2020 #6

yes, the last update was March 2, at 01 42 CET (my time, Central European Time ie 19 42 EST March 1) Celerity Mar 2020 #7

It will be very interesting to see what happens once Pete out is factored in. honest.abe Mar 2020 #8

indeed! Celerity Mar 2020 #9

Your snapshots are the same as the current data. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #10

yes, look at the long thread I had, you are correct, but now there is this Celerity Mar 2020 #13

Yep, I just posted that below a few minutes ago. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #15

it so so damn fluid, and the already cast million plus votes so worry me Celerity Mar 2020 #16

Yeah, I'm in Texas and reports are that early voting was pretty solid. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #19

CA is going to be a clusterfuck, the Sanders crowd is already going bonkers over the NPP voters Celerity Mar 2020 #20

Whoa, that is a big drop for Sanders, Sloumeau Mar 2020 #4

Yea. Get behind Biden even if not a number one choice. LizBeth Mar 2020 #11

You were right - he did drop because Pete dropped out. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #12

lol, after I just spent half the thread admitting I was probably wrong too, lol Celerity Mar 2020 #14

I noticed that they update different areas at different times. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #17

I wager Nate Silver gets little sleep these days Celerity Mar 2020 #18

This dovetails with an analysis I saw on CNN last week Algernon Moncrieff Mar 2020 #21