2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: If the Democratic Party continues to go [View all]Sancho
(9,067 posts)except social science research demonstrates over and over that an enthusiastic crowd does not predict votes.
There is a big difference between 2008 and 2016 in the "big states" like Ohio and Florida now - it is MUCH HARDER to register or get to the polls or vote on your college campus. NC, per your example, now has draconian statutes to prevent college students from voting easily. I also know for a fact that locally, 18-25 year olds are having issues getting registered because they have to produce birth certificates and all sorts of documents. Even then, they sometimes have to travel to a home precinct to vote.
As such, it's likely that the younger turnout will be LESS in 2016. On campuses in Florida, I see more enthusiasm for some GOP candidates and Hillary than anything else. The majority of college students now are women - that that's a strong support group for Hillary.
DU, and Bernie fans on DU, are an abnormality - they are enthusiastic, but have not gained any significant traction so far at 1.) winning the senior vote, 2.) winning the minority vote, 3.) winning the gender vote, 4.) winning the immigrant vote, 5.) getting the young voters to register in significant numbers.
With the polls, endorsements, and unions on Hillary's side - and virtually no demographic except the middle age white males - Bernie cannot win the primary or GE with the current profile.