http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf
Note the UPDATED time:
Poll Accuracy in the 2012 Presidential Election
—Initial Report, November 7, 2012 (UPDATED 3:30PM)—
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far
off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, pre-election
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 1.07 percentage
points on Election Day, which is only about 1.13 percentage points away from the current
estimate of a 2.2-point Obama margin in the national popular vote (Obama 50.3% versus
Romney 48.1%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess predictive accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (22) polls overestimated Romney support, while six (6)
overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national preelection
polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the predictive accuracy of their final, national
pre-election estimates (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Ipsos/Reuters
2. YouGov
3. PPP (D)
3. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
4. Angus-Reid*
5. ABC/WP*
6. Pew Research*
6. Hartford Courant/UConn*
7. Purple Strategies
8. NBC/WSJCostas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
...
It still reflects PPP as an accurate poll - not a big deal - it may have to do with the page being retained in memory.
= new reply since forum marked as read
