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grantcart

(53,061 posts)
5. I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list
Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:10 AM
Nov 2012
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf

—Initial Report, November 7, 2012—
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote
(Obama 50.1% versus Romney 48.4%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (18) polls overestimated Romney support, while ten
(10) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national
pre-election polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
estimates (as reported on pollster.com).

1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
Thanks. Saw this on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and meant to find a copy. The asterisks,for those Dark n Stormy Knight Nov 2012 #1
PPP is hired by Dems but can still be accurate Cicada Nov 2012 #2
You have the cart before the horse. grantcart Nov 2012 #6
When I follow your link, I see a page that ranks PPP as third most accurate. Jim__ Nov 2012 #3
I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list grantcart Nov 2012 #5
It looks like that link takes me to an updated page. Jim__ Nov 2012 #7
not a big deal but when I hit the link I get the other page, and that page is the one that is being grantcart Nov 2012 #10
Here's a direct link to Fordham's report. Jim__ Nov 2012 #22
you know that is very sloppy work grantcart Nov 2012 #23
Always said that PPP ,was the most accurate pollster outsideworld Nov 2012 #4
In A Perfect World Republican And Democratic Pollsters Would Produce The Same Results DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8
When all the votes are counted, there will be a Democratic pollster on top of the list, but not PPP. bornskeptic Nov 2012 #9
No is talking about the largely irrelevent national polls but the hundreds of critical state polls grantcart Nov 2012 #11
You didn't read the last line above the list of polls? bornskeptic Nov 2012 #12
NPR at 26? Xyzse Nov 2012 #13
I don't take Gravis rating seriously. If you are going to run a con then you are going to select a grantcart Nov 2012 #17
Interesting... Xyzse Nov 2012 #19
PPP did well on the national level but they were caught fudging figures in the MO Senate race. former9thward Nov 2012 #14
they did state , that most polled had probably not heard about the rape comments outsideworld Nov 2012 #15
Other polls released at the exact same time showed Akin down by 9-12. former9thward Nov 2012 #16
Rasmussen poll was intentionally bad because they wanted to force akin out of the race outsideworld Nov 2012 #24
Mason Dixon had McCaskill up 9 at the same time. former9thward Nov 2012 #27
I am unaware of PPP doing any national polls grantcart Nov 2012 #18
From your link: former9thward Nov 2012 #21
Accurate Polling... PoliticalBiker Nov 2012 #20
The D is not an indication of slant, it is what it is cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #25
That is basically my point grantcart Nov 2012 #29
While the Rand poll oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #26
what was unique about their methodology grantcart Nov 2012 #28
Totaly agree. The perception that D pollsters are D leaning is in most cases totally wrong. DCBob Nov 2012 #30
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