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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The time has come to take the (D) off of PPP Polling. [View all]grantcart
(53,061 posts)5. I am baffled. I just hit the link again and got the same list
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll_accuracy_2012_presidential_election_110712.pdf
Initial Report, November 7, 2012
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote
(Obama 50.1% versus Romney 48.4%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (18) polls overestimated Romney support, while ten
(10) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national
pre-election polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
estimates (as reported on pollster.com).
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
Initial Report, November 7, 2012
Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science, Fordham University
For inquiries: cpanagopoulos@fordham.edu or (917) 405-9069
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection
polls from 28 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
1.07 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 0.63 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 1.7-point Obama margin in the national popular vote
(Obama 50.1% versus Romney 48.4%).
Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion
Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from
these 28 polling organizations. Most (18) polls overestimated Romney support, while ten
(10) overestimated Obama strength (indicated with a * below), but none of the 28 national
pre-election polls I examined had a significant partisan bias.
The following list ranks the 28 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection
estimates (as reported on pollster.com).
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
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Thanks. Saw this on Lawrence O'Donnell last night and meant to find a copy. The asterisks,for those
Dark n Stormy Knight
Nov 2012
#1
not a big deal but when I hit the link I get the other page, and that page is the one that is being
grantcart
Nov 2012
#10
In A Perfect World Republican And Democratic Pollsters Would Produce The Same Results
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2012
#8
When all the votes are counted, there will be a Democratic pollster on top of the list, but not PPP.
bornskeptic
Nov 2012
#9
No is talking about the largely irrelevent national polls but the hundreds of critical state polls
grantcart
Nov 2012
#11
I don't take Gravis rating seriously. If you are going to run a con then you are going to select a
grantcart
Nov 2012
#17
PPP did well on the national level but they were caught fudging figures in the MO Senate race.
former9thward
Nov 2012
#14
they did state , that most polled had probably not heard about the rape comments
outsideworld
Nov 2012
#15
Rasmussen poll was intentionally bad because they wanted to force akin out of the race
outsideworld
Nov 2012
#24