10/27 Update on early voting NC and IA, good news, not great, and possibly great hard numbers.

[grantcart]

11. The issue comes down to whether or not Romney votes are McCain voters or

have they added new voters

As Kos points out

But here's the other part of that equation—Republican voters are some of the most reliable: wealthier, older and white. They will generally turn out come hell or high water. So it doesn't matter whether they turn out early or late. They're not adding to the GOP's vote pile.

Democratic base groups, on the other hand, are some of the least reliable voters—poor, brown and/or young. By banking early votes, Democrats can be assured that they're actually getting their unreliable voters to the polls, thus allowing them to focus GOTV efforts on those who still haven't voted.

So every Democratic vote represents locking in a more unstable voting population while a Romney vote represents simply moving a Republican vote from election day.

It is early, it will be close, but it is looking good.