Economy
In reply to the discussion: Weekend Economists Revelations and Reviews April 26-28, 2013 [View all]Demeter
(85,373 posts)YES, I KNOW IT'S DAVID BROOKS--BUT EVEN A BLIND PIG CAN FIND AN OCCASIONAL TRUFFLE....
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/brooks-health-chaos-ahead.html
It was always going to be difficult to implement Obamacare, but even fervent supporters of the law admit that things are going worse than expected. Implementation got off to a bad start because the Obama administration didnt want to release unpopular rules before the election. Regulators have been working hard but are clearly overwhelmed, trying to write rules that influence the entire health care sector an economic unit roughly the size of France. Republicans in Congress have made things much more difficult by refusing to provide enough money for implementation.
By now, everybody involved seems to be in a state of anxiety. Insurance companies are trying to put out new products, but they dont know what federal parameters they have to meet. Small businesses are angry because the provisions that benefited them have been put on the back burner. Health care systems are highly frustrated. They cant plan without a road map. Senator Max Baucus, one of the authors of the law, says he sees a huge train wreck coming. NO DOUBT THAT IS WHY HE BUGGED OUT AND DECIDED TO RETIRE...
Ive been talking with a bipartisan bunch of health care experts, trying to get a sense of exactly how bad things are. In my conversations with this extremely well-informed group of providers, academics and former government officials, Id say there is a minority, including some supporters of the law, who think the whole situation is a complete disaster. They predict Obamacare will collapse and do serious damage to the underlying health system. But the clear majority, including some of the laws opponents, believe that were probably in for a few years of shambolic messiness, during which time everybody will scramble and adjust, and eventually we will settle down to a new normal.
What nobody can predict is how health care chaos will interact with the political system. Theres a good chance that Republicans will be able to use unhappiness with what is already an unpopular law to win back the Senate in 2014. Controlling both houses of Congress, they will be in a good position to alter, though not repeal, the program. The laws biggest defenders will then become insurance companies and health care corporations. Having spent billions of dollars adapting to the new system, they are not going to want to see it repealed or replaced. The experts talk about the problems that lie ahead in cascades:
Over all, it seems likely that in some form or another Obamacare is here to stay. But the turmoil around it could dominate politics for another election cycle, and the changes after that to finally control costs, to fix the mind-boggling complexities and the unintended consequences will never end. Regulatory regimes can be simple and dumb or complex and sprawling. When you build complex, it takes a while to work through the consequences.
I'M HOPING FOR CATASTROPHIC FAILURE. IT WOULD BE THE ONLY WAY TO THE SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF UNIVERSAL SINGLE PAYER, AND THE END OF THE GLOBAL CORPORATION'S TYRANNY, AND THE RESUMPTION OF A REAL DEMOCRACY.