Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

Showing Original Post only (View all)

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
Sat Sep 30, 2017, 05:24 PM Sep 2017

It, almost certainly, is about to get worse. [View all]

A week ago I had a business meeting and the fellow started with something that was obviously on his mind, "I don't want to get into a partisan thing, and I don't agree with everything that Trump says BUT I do agree with him about athletes standing for the national anthem and not disrespecting the flag".

We talked for a bit and I gave him an alternative way of looking at it but then remarked, "its about to get much worse, much worse." He was curious and I explained that we weren't getting news from PR but when we did the news was going to be much worse than people thought. I explained that in modern society when you wipe out the electrical grid you have wiped out the foundation of society. Not only refrigerated food and drugs but also fresh drinking water, and much worse, sewage. When I told him that we were facing a real cholera epidemic that could effect tens of thousands, very quickly, I couldn't really follow the football drama or the stupid tweets. Cholera in the US affecting thousands should be everyone's first concern.

As the situation in PR allows for more interaction we will start getting the details and the pictures. When the basics have been established then there will be a house by house search for victims and it will take weeks to find all those that didn't survive the hurricane.

It will be a relentless day by day record of pain and suffering, some of which is not the fault of anybody and a lot of how Trump's cluelessness caused unnecessary death, suffering and loss.

At that point it will, almost certainly, get worse, much worse.

Trump has only one out. Trump isn't just a vacuous narcissistic semi-literate superficial performer, he is a vacuous narcissistic semi-literate superficial ONE TRICK performer. He has only one out - escalate the buffoonery to a new and higher level of confrontation, reframing, alarmist, scape goading.

The only way that he will get to out flank the pincer movement of bad Puerto Rico stories, general mismanagement stories, Bannon taking over the Republican Party stories, and the drip drip drip leaks from the Mueller investigation is to engage in a military confrontation.

China's closing of most of North Korean expat businesses has put China in the driver's seat in dealing with the North Koreans, along with almost everyone, including Russian revulsion at Trumps wild gestures.

That leaves Iran. At a time when Iran has swerved to its most rational course and made every effort to respond positively to the international agreement including large purchases of Boeing civilian aircraft Trump will be able to stir anti Iranian hysteria that too many including Senator Schumer have used for cheap and dishonest appeals to their bases.

A simple confrontation that triggers brief firing confrontations that doesn't lead to an actual open ended conflict (that would disrupt too much of Trump's golf and social schedule) could bring him weeks of headlines, threats, bombastic tweets and vitriolic nonsense wiping all of the other news of the front page.

It would also bring other benefits for Trump. Any military activity in the Straits of Hormuz will invalidate the underwriting of insurance for the shippers and disrupt 40% of the worlds freely traded oil. Oil prices would go up and bring immediate relief to Russia, OPEC (especially Saudi Arabia who is having an inconvenient debt crises) and the petroleum base of the Republican Party.

It is bad now but we should prepare ourselves for the possibility that it is about to get much worse.

27 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Your optimism impresses me PJMcK Sep 2017 #1
Even if he doesn't use them there he wants to normalize them for conventional conflicts grantcart Sep 2017 #3
You and I see eye to eye (n/t) PJMcK Sep 2017 #4
Recommended. H2O Man Sep 2017 #2
KnR. Thanks, grantcart Hekate Sep 2017 #5
thanks grantcart Oct 2017 #17
I couldn't agree more. mountain grammy Sep 2017 #6
Some have argued the endgame has always been higher oil prices for Putin kairos12 Sep 2017 #7
Oil/hotel deal, tit for tat. No doubt about it. Moskow's bankrupt. lindysalsagal Sep 2017 #9
You are right..He also wants Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, you name it... pangaia Sep 2017 #12
"vacuous narcissistic semi-literate superficial performer" lindysalsagal Sep 2017 #8
What has been worrying me lately is that Orange Horror Show has so gutted the intelligence catbyte Sep 2017 #10
no matter what bluestarone Sep 2017 #11
One of the realities we have to face is that a great deal of the country was never the same grantcart Sep 2017 #15
Musings like this one exacerbate my wondering whether trump is actually the Antichrist. calimary Sep 2017 #13
Oh, I absolutely believe he is. Dave Starsky Oct 2017 #26
There are so many possibilities the outcome will be universally terrible. gordianot Sep 2017 #14
K&R.. I fear you are correct. n/t ms liberty Sep 2017 #16
Eloquent Bayard Oct 2017 #18
Thanks grantcart Oct 2017 #19
scape goading? RandomAccess Oct 2017 #20
not an accident grantcart Oct 2017 #21
The last days of the republic Loge23 Oct 2017 #22
I feel like they're almost trying to incite war. Initech Oct 2017 #23
Probably a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident without the war grantcart Oct 2017 #24
K + R Raastan Oct 2017 #25
Quite the well-thought-out informative and SCARY post. Should be required reading. Once again, Trump WinkyDink Oct 2017 #27
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»It, almost certainly, is ...