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In reply to the discussion: 2016 Questions [View all]Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)10. Can't predict the future, but I can read history
Two things are true:
1) Starting in 1968, and with the single exception of Ronald Reagan, the GOP has always nominated the Establishment candidate in their field over the conservative true believers.
2) Starting in 1968, the GOP has always nominated a candidate who has previously made a run for either the GOP nomination or (in Nixon's case) the presidency itself.
Now, the only way for both of those criteria to be met in 2016 woudl be for them to either run Mitt again -- which, note, they're talking about -- or to run Perry (please, God, please). At any rate, there's every reason to believe that their cadidate will meet at least one of those two criteria, which rules out Paul (as well as Cruz and other teahadist favorites).
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They are pretty predictable aren't they. In the end the establishment guy always wins.
bklyncowgirl
Jul 2014
#26
I think the field will be Cowardly Ryan, Paulbot v.2, Frothy Rick, and some outsiders like a talk
Erose999
Jul 2014
#13
Bachmann has said she won't be running for her House seat in 2014 and she's also in hot water with
Erose999
Jul 2014
#31