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In reply to the discussion: 2016 Questions [View all]

Proud Public Servant

(2,097 posts)
10. Can't predict the future, but I can read history
Thu Jul 17, 2014, 11:08 AM
Jul 2014

Two things are true:

1) Starting in 1968, and with the single exception of Ronald Reagan, the GOP has always nominated the Establishment candidate in their field over the conservative true believers.

2) Starting in 1968, the GOP has always nominated a candidate who has previously made a run for either the GOP nomination or (in Nixon's case) the presidency itself.

Now, the only way for both of those criteria to be met in 2016 woudl be for them to either run Mitt again -- which, note, they're talking about -- or to run Perry (please, God, please). At any rate, there's every reason to believe that their cadidate will meet at least one of those two criteria, which rules out Paul (as well as Cruz and other teahadist favorites).

2016 Questions [View all] H2O Man Jul 2014 OP
Why don't we wait till at least the end of this year before going here awake Jul 2014 #1
sure. H2O Man Jul 2014 #4
Oh. LWolf Jul 2014 #2
Thanks! H2O Man Jul 2014 #7
At this point I'm interested in ANYONE LWolf Jul 2014 #28
I have been predicting it will be Jeb. femmocrat Jul 2014 #3
Very likely. H2O Man Jul 2014 #9
Huntsman says he isn't running JustAnotherGen Jul 2014 #30
I agree. H2O Man Jul 2014 #38
As an fyi - I know a few Republican JustAnotherGen Jul 2014 #40
That makes sense. H2O Man Jul 2014 #41
Who the 2016 nominee is a a game that talking heads are playing awake Jul 2014 #5
Gosh. H2O Man Jul 2014 #8
Every one here is fee to post where and what they want (with in reason) awake Jul 2014 #14
Oh, I'm not H2O Man Jul 2014 #23
I'm agree with Steve Schmit(?) on morning Joe, er, this morning Boom Sound 416 Jul 2014 #6
Interesting. H2O Man Jul 2014 #11
... Boom Sound 416 Jul 2014 #17
They are pretty predictable aren't they. In the end the establishment guy always wins. bklyncowgirl Jul 2014 #26
Agreed, all of the above Boom Sound 416 Jul 2014 #39
Can't predict the future, but I can read history Proud Public Servant Jul 2014 #10
Perry H2O Man Jul 2014 #12
I think the field will be Cowardly Ryan, Paulbot v.2, Frothy Rick, and some outsiders like a talk Erose999 Jul 2014 #13
Where is Michelle Bachman H2O Man Jul 2014 #19
Bachmann has said she won't be running for her House seat in 2014 and she's also in hot water with Erose999 Jul 2014 #31
Exactly. H2O Man Jul 2014 #34
Assuming their dementia is incurable ... GeorgeGist Jul 2014 #15
I think the GOP alsame Jul 2014 #16
Very good. H2O Man Jul 2014 #20
Pence might be the ticket - Governor, former Congressional big wig, loon TheKentuckian Jul 2014 #44
He's very under the alsame Jul 2014 #45
IMHO....John Huntsman with Colin Powell for VP KoKo Jul 2014 #18
Right. H2O Man Jul 2014 #22
Might go to "Third Way" with him.... KoKo Jul 2014 #42
A bit like H2O Man Jul 2014 #43
their primary seems to elevate their extremes bigtree Jul 2014 #21
Way so ..... H2O Man Jul 2014 #24
"Moderate Mitt" will be the candidate and may win the election depending on the economy. CK_John Jul 2014 #25
what ? Joel thakkar Jul 2014 #29
No idea at all but I am pulling for Rick Perry CBGLuthier Jul 2014 #27
!!!! H2O Man Jul 2014 #32
I think the current crop will cancel each other out mainstreetonce Jul 2014 #33
It wouldn't surprise me. H2O Man Jul 2014 #36
There will be additional candidates... brooklynite Jul 2014 #35
Good point. H2O Man Jul 2014 #37
"TP" by then might have run its course...though. KoKo Jul 2014 #46
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