General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Update on the Gravis Marketing Fraud investigation; Statistician offers proof of fraud in the polls. [View all]matt819
(10,749 posts)It is pathetic that so many in the media, including Silver, have been duped in this way. I have little doubt that the response, if there even is a response, from Silver, et al, is that the "results" from Gravis had no material effect on his/their analyses. This is bad enough.
A larger problem is the question of how many of these bogus operations are feeding lies into "the system." I would find it hard to believe that Gravis is the sole "bad apple," so, in the end, there's really no telling whether the meta poll analyses we are seeing have any basis in reality.
And then there's the question of whether the poll results from established operations are valid, given that some polls traditionally, and consistently, lean right or left.
And I still have the problem that despite the neck and neck race the media is portraying, Silver and others put the "probability" of an Obama win at 80+%.