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The G.O.P. polling strategy is so obvious that it discredits any commentater who falls for it. Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #1
But the problem is - they ARE falling for it. calimary Oct 2012 #76
What are you suggesting? If the Dems try to beat them at the hypnotic hoodwinking game anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #89
Are there any signs that the MSM is picking up on this? Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #2
They know all about it. GoCubsGo Oct 2012 #28
They were clearly chomping at the bit for more of a horse race to this thing. Warren DeMontague Oct 2012 #58
Neither eyeballs nor viewership are primary tavalon Oct 2012 #82
Wow Nate. DURHAM D Oct 2012 #3
Especially when they made a miraculous 500 calls in Pennsylvania in just a couple of hours. grantcart Oct 2012 #6
If Nate doesn't fix his model/calculations DURHAM D Oct 2012 #11
Times owned brush Oct 2012 #62
I wouldn't be too sure of that. n/t AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #83
you mean the current model/calculations that have Obama winning? krawhitham Oct 2012 #84
"you all"? DURHAM D Oct 2012 #85
Yep krawhitham Oct 2012 #88
Get real. Two weeks ago the pollsters suddenly switched from Registered Voters (RVs) to.... OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #114
What happened in 2010? krawhitham Oct 2012 #120
Wow. Just wow. nt. OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #121
Oh, for heaven's sake! MissMarple Oct 2012 #91
Your post makes absolutely no sense as regards DURHAM D Oct 2012 #99
Gravis had Romney up 57-40 among African-Americans in CO. HooptieWagon Oct 2012 #21
That certainly smells. That simply can't be correct. yardwork Oct 2012 #54
Agreed. Either a ridiculously small sample, HooptieWagon Oct 2012 #67
That seems impossible, but... Spider Jerusalem Oct 2012 #103
Denver and Colorado Springs are home to most of Colorado's African-American population jayschool Oct 2012 #122
Does Bias in Polling Work Both Ways: Right AND Left? SkepticMetric Oct 2012 #4
thanks so much for dropping by, enjoy your stay. grantcart Oct 2012 #8
You should get educated about what goes on here in DU. Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #14
That is a big reason I am here. old guy Oct 2012 #34
Liberal does not mean 'anything that is not conservative'. Marr Oct 2012 #15
In North Idaho liberal means "anything to the left of me" jmowreader Oct 2012 #40
You should have. Chan790 Oct 2012 #94
The boss refuses to run death panel letters jmowreader Oct 2012 #96
Name 6 major Democratic poling firms that are cited in the MSM. now... progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #33
Concern noted. nt. OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #115
We're working on it, man, we're working on it jsmirman Oct 2012 #5
Sites like electoral-vote.com BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #7
Agree with you...Nate needs to make some choices about the polls he keeps.... OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #9
Ask yourself a question about nate graham4anything Oct 2012 #10
He gained (and will retain) his fame by being accurate hack89 Oct 2012 #16
^^^ THIS ^^^ (n/t) MadrasT Oct 2012 #17
however...there is a truism about rasmussen-(though its sometimes hard to find the proof) graham4anything Oct 2012 #19
Everyone nailed the 2008 race. It really wasn't that hard. Dawgs Oct 2012 #27
To this degree of accuracy? hack89 Oct 2012 #45
So did the RCP average of state polls. Dawgs Oct 2012 #72
OK. nt hack89 Oct 2012 #73
Everyone knew Obama would win, but Silver was almost perfect. boxman15 Oct 2012 #71
Anyone can nail it if they know what the outcome will be. zeemike Oct 2012 #31
So Obama won by rigging the elections? hack89 Oct 2012 #47
No he won by massive voter turnout. zeemike Oct 2012 #126
Pure luck. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #35
He correctly predicted the winner of 49 of 50 states and every Senate race hack89 Oct 2012 #48
I'm a fan of Nate's BainsBane Oct 2012 #92
i believe that Nate's obstacle is that he made a model that was based grantcart Oct 2012 #23
I'd like to offer a correction to that statement which I believe is significant. gkhouston Oct 2012 #41
Agree 100% with your observations. DURHAM D Oct 2012 #56
Why do you think the polls have changed so much in 4 years? hack89 Oct 2012 #50
NO WE DON"t==there are 4 to 8 brand new companies that only started after aggregates blocked Ras graham4anything Oct 2012 #55
And Nate weighs new polls to give them less influence on the results hack89 Oct 2012 #57
Obama is now where he was before the debate. Mitt & Glove gained nothing but statistical noise graham4anything Oct 2012 #59
And your expertise in polling is what exactly? hack89 Oct 2012 #60
Who was better? Willie Mays or Derek Jeter? I rest my case. (Willie of course). graham4anything Oct 2012 #61
This also happened during the Wisconsin recalls forthemiddle Oct 2012 #68
The polls for the Wisconsin recall were pretty accurate. hack89 Oct 2012 #70
you don't have the facts grantcart Oct 2012 #64
Of the competitive states on Nate's site .. hack89 Oct 2012 #69
Let's stick with your first point grantcart Oct 2012 #93
So agreeing with Nate Silver = "die hard Republican"? Ok. nt hack89 Oct 2012 #102
So is Nate Silver merely incompetent or is it something more nefarious? nt hack89 Oct 2012 #105
As I stated clearly before Nate's model was designed based on baseball which had no grantcart Oct 2012 #106
Time will tell - I suspect Nate will nail it once again. nt hack89 Oct 2012 #108
You keep saying there were more polls available in 2008 hack89 Oct 2012 #109
If you are not aware of the fact that in 2008 that there was the most extensive primary campaign in grantcart Oct 2012 #110
So you have no actual evidence? hack89 Oct 2012 #111
Sorry, but you have to be much more polite to a respected DU poster.... OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #116
How do I prove a negative? hack89 Oct 2012 #117
And it was not insulting on his part hack89 Oct 2012 #118
Maybe the Dems should start a polling company that removes Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #12
Grantcart - Sugarcoated Oct 2012 #13
yes conversations are going on by other DUers. We expect something to be ublished by Thus. grantcart Oct 2012 #24
That's great news! dchill Oct 2012 #63
I have David Corn's private email addy if you need it. nt grasswire Oct 2012 #66
We just might, for sure jsmirman Oct 2012 #98
Go Grantcart! Force him to be real! n/t BlueToTheBone Oct 2012 #18
Why don't we just get to the heart of it.... Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #20
Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #22
I'm just not sure I'm going to vote this time around. AlbertCat Oct 2012 #30
I'm going to assume you are male OldHippieChick Oct 2012 #78
reversal of Roe v. Wade. AlbertCat Oct 2012 #81
"if you vote"??? Really, you like Romney that much? progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #36
Anyone who does not vote is in no position to judge who is 'smart'. Bluenorthwest Oct 2012 #38
"you smart DU people"? Good thing you're not one of us, then. randome Oct 2012 #39
Zorro has just become a zombie. Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #42
here's a fun thing rtracey Oct 2012 #25
Polling has become a political False Flag operation. Blue Idaho Oct 2012 #26
He had a bit of critique for Gravis today: mzmolly Oct 2012 #29
That's because Kaplan's "polls" appear to be made up out of whole cloth. MuhkRahker Oct 2012 #124
I agree. mzmolly Oct 2012 #125
Stop making sense! FailureToCommunicate Oct 2012 #32
The republics are just trying to make it seem confused so they can steal ThomThom Oct 2012 #37
Could very well be... defacto7 Oct 2012 #43
I find Nate Silver's columns to be very interesting... however... Time for change Oct 2012 #44
It is a drawback that he is strictly a numbers guy & admitted that he doesn't like politics Lex Oct 2012 #46
i believe Nate did a piece on voter suppression grantcart Oct 2012 #49
MORE TWO SENSES FROM LAYKOFF HowHasItComeToThis Oct 2012 #51
This message was self-deleted by its author anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #97
I've Been Inundated Ccarmona Oct 2012 #52
Excellent OP. Our side needs to wake up and smell the coffee. yardwork Oct 2012 #53
grantcart: Raine1967 Oct 2012 #65
Grantcart did you send info to Nate? flamingdem Oct 2012 #75
Nate Silver has a rapidly closing window of opportunity Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #74
YOu heard that Rob Portman was talking today about Romney doing it without Ohio didn't you? graham4anything Oct 2012 #77
They do this to mstinamotorcity2 Oct 2012 #79
Please check this out - DURHAM D Oct 2012 #80
I'd like to see a Michael Moore exposé on the corruption and pundit-abuse of polling. anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #86
I think Nate has been punked. Major Hogwash Oct 2012 #87
Silver's model does rate polls BainsBane Oct 2012 #90
Even as the more-obviously dodgy polls are weeded out, anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #95
The GOP is trying to make it look close. They want to steal the election without having a revolution judesedit Oct 2012 #100
Gravis, ARG, Purple Strategies, WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen 68 Rex Oct 2012 #101
Opinion polling is all fatally flawed Anthony McCarthy Oct 2012 #104
But seldom is it an outright fraud by known con people with previous citations by the FCC. grantcart Oct 2012 #107
Yep....this year has been very bad.... OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #112
I think Nate is going to do just fine. nt hack89 Oct 2012 #113
grantcart you make statistics sound so sexy!!!!!! psychmommy Oct 2012 #119
repubinrecovery ddougherty Oct 2012 #123
Thanks. +1. Nt Mc Mike Oct 2012 #127
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