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In reply to the discussion: Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Nate Silver [View all]forthemiddle
(1,373 posts)One of the reasons I joined back up with DU during the Wisconsin recalls was the unending denials of the Wisconsin polls. They were all saying Walker would win with about a 5 point margin. There were very few outliers, yet everyone here was complaining about how wrong they were (generally oversampling Republicans).
I stood up and stated that in my part of the state (very rural, and red to purple) that is what I was experiencing.
I have learned to pay attention to the polls because when taken as a whole (or an average) they tend to be pretty close. When a final election is less than a % difference, that is when polls become "unreliable", but in the 2012 election so far, on average Obama is in the lead, and that is the solace (at least today) I take. Even if they tighten even more, a very small percentage has had Romney ahead, and none of those by a huge amount.