April 28, 2020

Trump is unravelling - even his supporters can't ignore it now

The president is leaning heavily on sarcasm to excuse a range of blunders, but US conservatives are unimpressed

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/28/trump-is-unravelling-even-his-supporters-cant-ignore-it-now



I don’t know what kind of disinfectant Donald Trump has been injecting, but the man does not appear to be well. The president’s lethal medical musing has turned him into (even more of) a global laughing stock and the widespread ridicule has clearly bruised his fragile ego. While Trump has never been a paradigm of calmness or competence, he has become increasingly irate and erratic in recent days. Now even his diehard supporters seem to be cooling towards him. Is the “very stable genius” starting to unravel?

Let’s start with the president’s weekend tweetstorm, which, even by Trumpian standards, was spectacularly unhinged. On Sunday, Trump lashed out at what he called a “phony story” in the New York Times that claimed he spends his days eating junk food and watching TV. “I will often be in the Oval Office late into the night & read & see [in the Times] that I am angrily eating a hamberger & Diet Coke in my bedroom,” he tweeted. “People with me are always stunned.” He then deleted the tweet and replaced it with one in which hamburger was spelled correctly. (This was clearly a challenge for him: he has previously misspelled hamburgers “hamberders”.) It turned out that the hambergers were just an appetiser. A rant about the “Noble” prize, which Trump seems to have confused with the Pulitzer prize, followed. This was subsequently deleted and replaced with a tweet stating it had all been an exercise in sarcasm. He is a master of sarcasm, as we all know.

While none of Trump’s aides seem able to shut down his Twitter account, they are trying to tone down his daily press briefings. Trump didn’t hold a briefing over the weekend as he normally does, while Monday’s event was cancelled and then reinstated. “We like to keep reporters on their toes,” the White House director of strategic communications, Alyssa Farah, tweeted with a winking emoji. She then deleted the tweet – presumably to keep reporters on their toes. Monday’s briefing was notable for the briefness of Trump’s remarks; instead of treating it like a political rally, he ceded the floor to a number of CEOs.

Trump enjoyed a bump in his ratings last month when he stopped downplaying coronavirus and announced a 15-day plan to slow the virus’s spread. During his brief experiment with coherence, 55% of Americans said they approved of the way he was handling the crisis and CNN’s chief political correspondent, Dana Bash, told viewers Trump “is being the kind of leader that people need”. The tide now seems to have turned. Recent polls show that most Americans are unimpressed with Trump’s handling of the crisis. This includes conservatives: a Siena College poll released on Monday found that 56% of Republican voters in New York say they trust Andrew Cuomo, the state’s Democratic governor, to decide how to reopen the state over Trump. Even Fox News seems to have cooled towards Trumpism; the network has just cut ties with Diamond & Silk, a pair of rightwing social-media stars who have been two of Trump’s biggest cheerleaders, after they promoted conspiracy theories and disinformation.

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April 25, 2020

New stats out for Sweden, coronavirus deaths, 87% are 70yo and up, 95% 60yo and up

this is straight from Folkhälsomyndigheten, the official Health agency

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

In the entire country, there have been 113 deaths under the age of 60, that is for the entire population under 60

under 40yo there have been 13 deaths total, for all age groups under 40

under 30yo, 5 deaths total, that is for all age groups under 30

under 20yo, zero deaths total (and almost all our schools under high school level have been open the whole time)


I am born in 1996, as is my wife. We have over 20 friends, all under 40, who have tested positive for antibodies, all but 4 had no idea they were even exposed, they had no symptoms, and most of them were tested over 2 or 3 weeks ago. The 4 who had symptoms said it was extremely mild. The 2 most paranoid people (FAR beyond us) we know just tested positive for antibodies and have broken self-isolation.

We are getting tested for antibodies on Monday, and if positive, we too are breaking self isolation. I know of less than ten people around our ages who are still self-isolating. We have no close friends here (other than some professors and my uni is closed, plus some co-workers, and my job is still remote for now) over 40. We have personally been in lockdown for over 2 months and enough is enough if we have the antibodies. If we are antibody positive, then self-isolation is useless anyway, when almost no one here under 60, 70 years old is doing it (other than high risk people with pre-existing conditions) and if we were exposed anyway (which is entirely possible no matter how careful you are, short of living on boat or on an island or in a hyper-remote location with zero outside contact or in level 4 type isolation chamber.) then it was useless in terms of avoiding exposure, and useless because, as stated before, no one is really doing it anyway.

avlidna means deaths

April 25, 2020

The Guardian: Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution

Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route enables infections at longer distances

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution

Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected. The work is preliminary and it is not yet known if the virus remains viable on pollution particles and in sufficient quantity to cause disease.

The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory.

Leonardo Setti at the University of Bologna in Italy, who led the work, said it was important to investigate if the virus could be carried more widely by air pollution. “I am a scientist and I am worried when I don’t know,” he said. “If we know, we can find a solution. But if we don’t know, we can only suffer the consequences.”

Two other research groups have suggested air pollution particles could help coronavirus travel further in the air. A statistical analysis by Setti’s team suggests higher levels of particle pollution could explain higher rates of infection in parts of northern Italy before a lockdown was imposed, an idea supported by another preliminary analysis. The region is one of the most polluted in Europe.

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April 25, 2020

Berlin's club scene takes on a new digital life through streaming

Berlin's Legendary Club Scene Goes Digital to Keep the Beat Alive

A tidal wave of live streams from Berlin’s most renowned techno DJs is providing the city’s soundtrack during quarantine.

https://www.thrillist.com/travel/nation/berlin-techno-club-scene-digital-live-streaming-coronavirus



An everyday journey across Berlin is set to a pulsing score: you'll hear electronic basslines in supermarkets, convenience stores (we call them spätis), and blaring from speakers on bicycles or in parks. You'll be minding your business one minute and suddenly -- boom! -- you're in a rave. But with the world on lockdown, everything's different. Even music. DJs aren’t hypnotizing hundreds at the city's iconic nightclubs, or busking with portable controllers for late-night subway stragglers. Even May Day -- Berlin's annual street party with open-air stages, mini-raves, and ground-floor apartment parties (window entrance only) -- is canceled.

Around the world, musicians and venues are taking to the cloud to broadcast performances, and Berliners are no different. A tidal wave of live streams is helping locals like me indulge in our daily soundtrack -- and giving global access to those who want to immerse themselves in our legendary club scene from afar. After all, Berlin is the world capital of techno thump. Why shouldn’t it reign supreme for “digital clubbing” too?



Techno is Berlin's musical lifeblood

Electronic music is everything in Berlin -- the rhythm interweaves with the city’s history. In the 1990s, after the Berlin Wall fell, underground techno raves in abandoned East German buildings symbolized a reunified Germany and newfound freedom for all. “The golden age [of the Berlin club scene] started around 2004 when tourism began, and it’s continuing today,” says Ellen Allien, a Berlin native and one of the world’s most renowned techno DJs.

The club scene is a serious economic driver, responsible for a whopping €1.48 billion in revenue. Seemingly every third tourist comes to Berlin to party. In the clubs, I’ve been lucky enough to encounter all kinds of colorful characters from all over the world, including a pair of techno-loving seniors with pink mohawks and a dad in a lime-green bikini top taking his daughter out for her first clubbing experience. No matter who you are, in Berlin's clubs you are free to be you. “[In Berlin], the people all dance differently, they all look different and not uniformed, you get all ages. A total mix from 16 to 60. You even get mothers and fathers [clubbing] with their kids. Girls can kiss girls. I have the feeling it’s freer [in Berlin],” Allien says.

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many streams later on in the article

April 24, 2020

The Makers Of Dettol & Lysol Have Warn People Not To Inject Themselves W/ Disinfectant As Suggested

By Donald Trump

"We must be clear that under no circumstance should our disinfectant products be administered into the human body."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/coronavirus-donald-trump-disinfectant-warning

The makers of Dettol have been forced to issue a press release telling people not to inject themselves with disinfectant — after US president Donald Trump suggested it could help kill the coronavirus. British firm Reckitt Benckiser (RB), which makes disinfectants Dettol and Lysol among other household products, said that "under no circumstance" should disinfectant be injected or ingested.

At his press conference on Thursday, Trump suggested scientists should investigate if they could inject the human body with disinfectants to kill the virus. "I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute," he said. "Is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that."

[link:http://|In a statement, RB said]:



Trump also suggested that scientists should look at how they could "hit the body" with ultraviolet light to treat patients for coronavirus. His comments at the White House briefing have sparked an outcry from the medical profession.

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https://twitter.com/drjudymelinek/status/1253478628223938560
https://twitter.com/DoctorJSpicer/status/1253471854993584135

April 23, 2020

Solidaristic, social and sensible--reflections on progressivism for today and when tomorrow comes

The future of social democracy has been a perennial debate but the coronavirus crisis has provided a shock: progressive politics will not be the same again.

The coronavirus crisis is a profoundly transformative experience. Hardly anyone (outside of epidemiologists) had predicted the catastrophe coming the way it did. Thousands of pages had been written about globalisation and modernity. A great many featured terrifying, doomsday scenarios. But what has happened has gone beyond anything ever imagined. Now there is no way of knowing how long this will all take, how many lives will be claimed and what kind of world will emerge. So resorting to comfortable intellectual templates by way of explanation would prove treacherous. It is time humbly to admit that not only will the world be different—and it will simply be impossible to pick up where we left off—but also it isn’t an option to revisit essays on previous crises and replace ‘economic’ with ‘coronavirus’. Never before has the saying ‘the future is unknown’ been more true.

Put to the test

If there is therefore a need to turn the page, there is also a need to understand what this confinement has done to ordinary lives. It has put individuals to the test. They have had to revise what they consider essential and inessential, in both materialistic and non-materialistic senses. It has put households too to the test, making individuals acquire a new closeness by default. Those within confinement together have had to learn a great deal about one another, while those at a distance have started communicating more frequently. Some perhaps have never called their parents and grandparents as often as during these days.

Moreover, a new kind of responsibility has been emerging within communities, whereby the younger would volunteer to bring groceries or go to the pharmacy for those elders, the first to be advised to stay home. And the courage and devotion of so many has made others realise superheroes live among them. These are not only the doctors and nurses but also the shop assistant in the grocery around the corner, the teacher from the nursery that wasn’t closed to provide care for those ensuring continuity of vital services, the refuse collector, the post-office clerks, the lorry drivers … With white flags hung on so many buildings and at 8 pm people opening their windows to cheer and applaud, a sense of gratitude, solidarity and a new admiration for others has been born. Paradoxically then, people may feel themselves closer as a result of the lockdown—more connected and more respectful towards other—than they have been in decades. This would, if sustained, be a reversal of years of atomisation of contemporary societies.

Issues foregrounded

Furthermore, confinement foregrounded issues that had been known and talked about at length, for at least two decades, but had not been given the priority they should. Appropriate elderly care, alongside the need to invest more and equip adequately institutions providing healthcare, is evidently top of the list. But it includes many other, less obvious, matters. Lockdown left many imprisoned, alone, within their own houses, questioning the adequacy of existing support mechanisms. For the impoverished, it raised again the question of what minimum standards are, especially when shops had to limit their offer to essential goods. The tragedy also exposed the absolute necessity to do more to fight children’s poverty, as nobody could guarantee during the lockdown that each and every child had even one warm meal a day.

Mental health and care for patients suffering from chronic disease—for whom human contact has a therapeutic relevance and who were from one day to another left to a potential decline—were also at issue. As was the quest to fight domestic violence: it pains even to think how much more suffering there has been in conditions of confinement. Finally, the continuing lack of provision in many places for same-sex marriage presented an incredibly cruel obstacle to partners remaining together in challenging moments in hospitals and elsewhere.

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April 23, 2020

The Smearing Of Joe Biden Part 2: Biden And The "Dementia" Conspiracy

We spoke to an actual neuroscientist who specializes in cognitive aging and asked for a professional opinion on Joe Biden's cognitive health.

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/the-smearing-of-joe-biden-part-2



I have watched two grandparents descend into clinically diagnosed, vascular dementia. Over the years, they began withdrawing from family life, became confused when doing simple tasks, developed acute anxiety, and could not effectively organize any aspect of their lives, including feeding and washing themselves. Dementia feels more like a death than anything else. It is a cruel, unstoppable process of erosion that chips away pieces of personality, drains vitality, and ends intimate relationships with everyone around the person suffering. A once vibrant, autonomous person becomes completely dependent on others and incapable of navigating social relationships. I remember having to come to terms with the fact that my grandmother, whom I was particularly close to, simply wasn’t “there” anymore. She looked and sounded like her for the most part, but she stopped remembering things about my life; whom I was dating (or now married to), what I was doing for work, and where I was living. When a friend or family member becomes incapable of giving back in a relationship, the loss is painful. My grandmother passed away recently, but in truth she hadn’t really been “there” for many years. From first hand experience, I know how serious dementia and other degenerative cognitive health conditions can be. They require expert diagnosis to be treated properly, and no one suffering should be put in any position of power or authority.

Joe Biden’s Cognitive Health

I have watched Joe Biden closely during this election cycle and have seen a clear decline in his energy levels and physical appearance. Biden occasionally loses track of thought, makes routines gaffes, and has stumbled in a few interviews where he appears to not be able to find the right words. At 77 years of age, Biden would be the oldest President in US history, and it is right to ask questions about his fitness to serve in office. Gaffes and stumbles aside, Biden has been overwhelmingly coherent during his time on the campaign trail. He has shown an ability to parse complex questions and give thoughtful answers, remember intricate policy details from decades ago, and debate intensively over several hours. I have no expertise in cognitive science or dementia, but there is nothing I see in Joe Biden that reminds me remotely of my grandparents — even in their early days of decline. Joe Biden is still very much Joe Biden. He is acutely aware of who he is, his surroundings, and other people. Thus when activists on the far left and far right began circulating rumors that Biden “has dementia”, I feared the worst: a new politically motivated conspiracy theory aiming to smear the former Vice President and scuttle his chances of winning the 2020 election.

Pro Trump Media Fuel The Conspiracy

The right’s attempts to diagnose Biden have been blatant, forgoing the term “cognitive decline” in many instances and outright accusing Biden of being senile, or having full blown dementia. Reported Politico:

The Far Left

While Bernie Sanders extremists like Matt Taibbi have called Biden a “corpse” and a “neurological glitch”, smears on the far left have generally been more subtle, but no less dishonest and equally scurrilous. In an astonishingly deceitful piece (even for him), Glenn Greenwald claimed “establishment Democrats” are responsible for the rumors about Biden’s “serious cognitive decline”. As evidence, he posts multiple links of politicians and commentators questioning whether Biden is up to the rigors of presidential campaigning. That includes Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan saying that some Democrats are concerned because “there’s sometimes a lack of clarity,” and Cory Booker wondering whether Biden has the ability to “carry the ball all the way to the end line without fumbling”. This, according to Greenwald, constitutes ironclad proof that Democrats secretly believe Biden is mentally incapacitated and incapable of functioning as a president. “It is visible to the naked eye that the 77-year-old six-term Senator and two-term Vice President is in serious cognitive decline,” wrote Greenwald. “Biden’s cognitive decline is visible to the naked eye and it is incredibly reckless and repressive to demand that it be suppressed,” he continued. His evidence for this “Orwellian”, nakedly self serving suppression? Anyone pointing out the very obvious fact that the attacks on Biden’s cognitive health are coordinated, and a couple of tweets from a former Julian Castro staffer and a fringe Democratic consultant asking people to stop spreading conspiracy theories:

https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1236770164764487688
https://twitter.com/finneyk/status/1236761422102695937

This, according to Greenwald is evidence of “Democratic operatives,” trying to “impose a ban on speaking ill of him while deceitfully pretending they and their clients never did so for fear that it could cost them future consulting or political gigs within the Biden-controlled Party.”

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much more at the link

April 23, 2020

Trump's Criminal Inaction Increased U.S. Coronavirus Deaths By 90 Percent

The president's idiocy and inaction has killed thousands of Americans, and he must be forced to pay for it.

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/trumps-criminal-inaction-increased



WASHINGTON, DC -- As some of you might have observed, I watch all of Donald Trump’s evening press conferences, or what I’ve been calling the “Trump Show.” I’m watching his Wednesday show as I write this and, so far, it’s about as successful as “Toonces the Cat” trying to drive a car. In fact, I’ve developed a ratings system on a scale of one-to-ten for each episode, ten being full crazy-eyed “Mad King cocaine ragegasm” and one being “somber, so somber, monotone Biff.” For what it’s worth, his April 4 Trump Show was the most recent ten score, while most have hovered in the six or seven range. Nevertheless, by now we’re all aware of Trump’s gambit with these things. Not only are his press conferences an opportunity for him to flood the zone with his gigantic pumpkin head, appearing across most news networks, and, for a while there, the broadcast networks, too, but it also allows him to fully control the news cycle.

Indeed, most of the political press stops what they’re doing to watch the Trump car fly off the ledge. With only a few exceptions Trump’s given both viewers and reporters fresh chaos to choke down during the dinner hour. One of the topics that Trump’s constantly circling back to -- you know, those mental glitches in which he gets caught up in repetitive verbal loops -- is the American death toll from COVID-19. When he does, he tends to do this thing where he talks about cutting the numbers in half until he arrives at the number of soldiers killed in the American Civil War, around 650,000. I have no blessed clue what he’s getting at here, but lately, once he pulls out of his verbal nosedives, he’s been landing on a death toll in the range of 50 to 60,000 Americans. At one point earlier this week, he twice mentioned, straight up, 50,000 deaths -- total. Considering we’re at around 45,000 deaths as of this writing, we’ll probably surpass 50,000 by Friday and 60,000 by the end of next week, with more deaths occurring thereafter.

or a while there, Trump was engaged in the “Scotty from Star Trek” strategy, deliberately overestimating the death toll so that when it ends up being lower than, say, one to two million, he looks like a hero. But now, he’s gravely underestimating the number, making himself look immensely foolish -- for the gazillionth time because Trump always makes things worse for Trump. But the impact of his underestimated number is that it reinforces his casual attitude toward the spread of the virus. Fewer deaths means lower risk. Whatever the death toll ends up being, Trump’s head-games with the numbers end up distracting from the reality that his own criminal inaction for upwards of a month managed to worsen the crisis by augmenting the death toll. A study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation determined that Trump’s slow-on-the-uptake response worsened the death toll by as much as 90 percent.

In other words, the death toll would’ve been 90 percent lower had Trump called for social distancing and other measures just two weeks earlier. Two weeks. One week earlier would’ve likewise meant a 60 percent reduction in deaths due to the coronavirus. Put another way, if Trump had acted one week sooner than he did, if he had acted on March 9, the projected death toll would’ve topped out at around 23,000. Two weeks sooner, on March 2, the date of the last public Trump rally, and the death toll would’ve been 6,000. Sadly, there’s no way to undo Thanos’s snap in real life -- there’s no way to bring back the tens of thousands of Americans who died due to Trump’s criminal negligence -- his hideous and unforgivable compulsion to protect the economy and therefore his re-election chances instead of taking responsible measures when it really mattered. Of course he’ll tell you he closed the “border” to China, but this one teeny-tiny decision was the least he could do without doing nothing. 40,000 Americans traveled from China to the United States after the ban, while most of the coronavirus cases originated with infected people traveling from Europe, not China.

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April 23, 2020

A New Supreme Court Justice Could Swing Criminal Justice Decisions In Washington

What G. Helen Whitener does next will shape whether Washington State moves in a more progressive direction.

https://theappeal.org/politicalreport/washington-new-justice-whitener/



Governor Jay Inslee made his third appointment to the Washington Supreme Court last week, elevating G. Helen Whitener, a judge on the Pierce County Superior Court. In joining a supreme court that has recently driven major criminal justice reform, and that is generally progressive but often divided, Whitener could determine how boldly it proceeds in years ahead. Whitener replaces Justice Charles Wiggins, who retired last month. To keep the seat, she has to run in the November general election and then again in 2022, when Wiggins’s term would have ended. Three other justices are up for re-election this fall as well.

Her appointment has drawn attention for boosting the representation of marginalized groups. She is a Black, gay, and disabled immigrant from Trinidad. With her appointment, Washington’s Supreme Court is the most diverse appellate court in the country. Whitener also adds range in terms of professional experience. She had been a trial court judge since 2015, and before that served as both a prosecutor and a criminal defense lawyer, including as a public defender in Pierce County’s Department of Assigned Counsel. The judiciary, including both state and federal courts, is littered with former prosecutors. Former defense lawyers, and public defenders in particular, are significantly underrepresented.

Mary Kay High, the chief deputy in that Pierce County office, noted that criminal defense is “not the typical path to the bench.” She believes Whitener’s diverse professional background will play a crucial role on a court with justices regarded as liberal but fiercely independent. As a superior court judge who previously represented people harmed by prosecutions, Whitener recognized how the criminal legal system’s punitive aspects can be unjust and counterproductive, setting people up to fail and remain trapped in the system. Last year, for instance, she said the fines and fees attached to criminal convictions “have accumulated at a ridiculous rate.” She stressed that judges have broad discretion over most fines and fees and should only impose such obligations when people can afford to pay, taking into account a person’s income and other financial obligations. “We can’t on one side say we’re helping people who are leaving our prison system, and then burden them with all of these fines,” she said.

In that same interview, she also advocated against incarcerating youth offenders for so-called status offenses, which only apply to children — like skipping school, running away from home, and underage drinking — echoing state advocates’ calls to treat kids like kids. She added, “these children are experiencing trauma of some sort, and incarceration is not the answer for dealing with that situation.” Washington, which had an exceptionally punitive system with regard to status offense detentions, adopted a law restricting them in 2019. Whitener brings this sensibility to a court that has been repeatedly at the forefront of criminal justice reform over the last decade—though often without unanimity, and with room to go further, creating opportunity for a new justice to push the court in an even more progressive direction.

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April 23, 2020

Dixie in the crosshairs: The South is likely to have America's highest death rate from covid-19

It has unusually unhealthy residents and few ICU beds

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/25/the-south-is-likely-to-have-americas-highest-death-rate-from-covid-19



America does not face one covid-19 crisis, but rather dozens of different ones. A few places have been walloped; others remain unscathed. So far, sars-cov-2 has claimed most of its victims in areas where it has spread the fastest. Lockdowns have geographically contained most outbreaks. However, once social distancing is relaxed, the virus will accelerate its spread, and could infect a majority of Americans. If that happens, the places it hits hardest may not be those it struck first. Instead, the vulnerability of local populations will determine its death toll in each region.

Covid-19’s true infection-fatality rate (ifr, the share of infected people who die) is unknown, because most carriers are not tested. However, testing is more common for people whose cases are bad enough to endanger their lives: in New York 67% of people with covid-19 on their death certificate had tested positive. If the share of people without grave symptoms who still get tested were similar everywhere, places with high case-fatality rates (cfrs)—the death rate among people testing positive—would be likely to have high ifrs as well.

In fact, testing practices vary widely. And given two states with the same rate of infections and deaths, one that tests only the severely ill will report a higher cfr than will one that tests more broadly. However, within any given state, testing protocols are likely to be more uniform. As a result, we have built a model to identify the traits shared by counties with cfrs far above or below their own state’s average—and predict which places not yet ravaged by the virus will suffer most if it arrives in earnest. Some factors that affect viral spread also predict the cfr. It tends to be higher in cities than in rural areas, and lower where social distancing, as measured by traffic to workplaces and transit stations, is greater. One explanation is that health-care quality drops when caseloads surge. Places with few intensive-care-unit (icu) beds also have high cfrs, bolstering this hypothesis.



However, demography is just as important. Places with older residents and more diabetes, heart disease and smoking have higher cfrs. Race and income also play a role. Counties with lots of poor or black people tend to have more health problems, less social distancing and fewer icu beds. Yet cfrs in such areas are even higher than you would expect from these factors alone. Together, these variables leave a geographic footprint. If covid-19 does infect most Americans, the highest death rates will probably not be in coastal cities—whose density is offset by young, healthy, well-off populations and good hospitals—but rather in poor, rural parts of the South and Appalachia with high rates of heart disease and diabetes. Worryingly, the three states that announced plans this week to relax their lockdowns (Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina) are all in this region. ■