HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Celerity » Journal
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next »

Celerity

Profile Information

Gender: Female
Hometown: London
Home country: USA/UK/Sweden
Current location: Stockholm, Sweden
Member since: Sun Jul 1, 2018, 07:25 PM
Number of posts: 12,637

Journal Archives

Amy Klobuchar & Pete Buttigieg endorsing Joe Biden: absolutely devastating news for Elizabeth Warren

Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg are endorsing Joe Biden the day before Super Tuesday
Both of those candidates have built constituencies that also love Elizabeth Warren
Their decision to endorse could throw a lot of support Warren was angling for in the direction of Biden.


https://www.businessinsider.com/klobuchar-and-buttigieg-endorsing-biden-is-devastating-for-warren-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Amy Klobuchar has ended her campaign, making her the third candidate in as many days to exit the 2020 Democratic primary after billionaire Tom Steyer and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg dropped following their disappointing results in the South Carolina primary.

Buttigieg and Steyer ended their campaigns ahead of Super Tuesday, the enormously consequential primary when approximately 35% of the entire national primary's delegates are awarded over the course of a single day. But they — at first — neglected to endorse, effectively allowing their backers to navigate the remainder of the primary without guidance from their preferred candidate. Klobuchar, however, decided to endorse former Vice President Joe Biden immediately after dropping out, and shortly after that announcement it was reported that Buttigieg too would be endorsing Biden.

For the past several months, Insider has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience poll to track the state of the 2020 Democratic primary field. You can download every poll here, down to the individual respondent data. (Read more about how the Insider Democratic primary tracker works here).

We've been asking respondents to select from the list of contenders who they would be satisfied with as nominee, allowing them to select as many as possible. This lets us figure out what the overlapping coalitions of the Democratic electorate look like, to see who's competing for the same delegates.

snip

much more at the link







The daily 538 cratering of Sanders continues unabated, on the verge of going sub 20% for 1991

He is on the verge of going sub 40% in terms of total pledged delegates as well, which is massive

as zero chance, even with a plurality (I do NOT think he will even have a plurality) he will get the nomination with 36%, 38% or less of the pledged delegates,

the maths (even if he rolls in with 45% ie, 1791) simply do not add up

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/







Here is a deep dive I did earlier:

Lets say Bernie has 1791 pledged delegates (45%) for the first ballot, where 1991 is needed.

It will then go to a second ballot, as there is zero chance that Biden can hit 1991 if Sanders has 1791, as that leaves only 197 delegates won by ALL the others, and there is no way a combined Pete (now out), Amy, Warren, and Bloomberg end up with a total of only 197, that will never happen. They will have hundred and hundreds more than that, but on the first ballot, they are locked in to vote for their candidate.


So, we move onto the 2nd ballot. At this point, the magic 1991 number now goes up to 2375, as now the Superdelegates can vote and are included.

If no one gets 1,991 votes on the first ballot, then things could get more complicated. This is the scenario people refer to when they use the phrase “contested convention” or “brokered convention.”

In this situation, there would be a second ballot. And on the second ballot, there are votes from two sets of delegates:

Votes from the 3,979 pledged delegates, who are allowed to support a different candidate on the second ballot if they so choose

An additional 771 votes from “automatic delegates,” commonly known as superdelegates

To win the nomination, a candidate still must earn a majority of the votes on a given ballot. In this case, that means she or he must amass more than 2,375 pledged and automatic delegates. (In the second and subsequent rounds, a few automatic delegates get only half votes; the D.N.C. says the magic number is 2,375.5, which this time is not rounded up.)

It is theoretically possible that the nomination process would extend through multiple ballots until one candidate hits the magic number (2,375.5) and prevails. One thing to keep in mind is that delegates do not need to stay with the candidate to whom they were originally allocated and can move around.



This all means Bernie needs to gain 584 MORE delegates. All the pledged delegates are now unlocked and can switch, plus the SD's can vote for whomever they desire. I do not see him getting more than 150-200 MAX (if that) of the SD's. Most are vehemently against him.

So he needs around 400 to 450 or so MORE.

Even if ALL of Warren's delegates go to Bernie (that will never happen), she will more than likely have only around 150 to 200 total delegates.

So he will STILL be 200 to 300 SHORT of 2375.

I do not see many of the other candidates' delegates going to Bernie (other than Warren's and not all of hers will), and Bernie MAY lose a few himself. His campaign and social media and far left sites have savagely attacked Pete, Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg for ages. There is a LOT of animosity there.

In fact, Bernie could roll in with 47%, or even 48% and the breakdown still works. Biden was now said he will contest at the convention even if Bernie has a plurality, and IF Bernie does end up with 45%, it will be next to impossible for Biden to end up with more than 37%, 38% or so, MAX, due to the others running. He likely would be in the low 30's.

That said, IF they all rally around Biden on the 2nd ballot, you could have a 45% to 47, 48% Bernie (in terms of actual voted on pledged delegates, although as stated above this is extremely unlikely that he gets anywhere near that many at all) having the nomination ripped away from him. IF that happens, the party will rip itself apart and Trump will surely win. We are headed into dangerous, treacherous waters. I REALLY hope Biden can somehow pass up Sanders in terms of a plurality, and even better, somehow hit 1991 (probably impossible unless Sanders collapses and ALL but Joe drop out ASAP.)

Bloomberg, the Eye of Sauron is on you, drop out now mate and endorse and indirectly fund Joe






First




THEN






More divisive claptrap from Meagan Day of the socialist (actual real socialist) pro-Bernie Jacobin

https://twitter.com/meaganmday/status/1234265877802934272

This is the same Meagan Day who kicked off the whole Warren pregnancy smear job that the RW cesspools picked up on and ran with


https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287303161#post18

here is the first RW source I could find, and ITS source is Bernie-bro-ette Meagan Day at Jacobin

This RW article came out October 2nd (and is cited on the same day by RW sites) and the Meagan Day tweet came out October 1, before the RW sites picked up on it.


https://jerylbier.blogspot.com/2019/10/elizabeth-warren-fired-from-teaching.html

Elizabeth Warren: Fired From Teaching Job For Being Pregnant, Or For Lacking Qualifications? Story Appears To Change

Editor's Note:

>Ed Morrissey of Hot Air found video of Warren's 2007 interview here. [added 10/7/19]

>Collin Anderson of the Washington Free Beacon found records of county records from the Riverdale Board of Education that directly contradict Warren's claims here. [added 10/7/19]

>Warren finally responded via CBS News on Monday, October 8, 5 days after this article was published. [added 10/8/19]

>Final note: Here's my editorial take on this issue.
---
Original article:

- October 02, 2019

During her presidential campaign, Elizabeth Warren often emphasizes education as well as equal opportunities for women in the workplace. Warren tells of her own experience as a young public school teacher, let go from a special needs teaching job by a male principal for being "visibly pregnant." This past May, Warren put it this way when discussing her early teaching career:
“I loved it, and I would probably still be doing it today but back in the day, before unions, the principal, by the time we got to the end of the first year, I was visibly pregnant,” she said. “And the principal did what principals did in those days: they wished you luck, showed you the door, and hired someone else for the job. And there went my dream.”

In an interview twelve years ago, however, Warren told a markedly different version of the circumstances around her termination from her teaching job. (A writer for Jacobin Magazine, Meagan Day, first noted the interview on Tuesday on Twitter. Day is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and is a Bernie Sanders supporter.)

snip

https://twitter.com/meaganmday/status/1179094207740313600

SNIP





https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287303161#post34

give it up, that 'blog post' is by a major RW writer and was used the SAME day by another major RW site, the odious Ben Shapiro's Daily Wire.

Bernie booster MEAGAN DAY SLUNG THE DIRT ON WARREN on October 1st, then the RW picked it up and was running with it the very next day, NOT, as you tried to falsely claim, starting on October 4th. The original source (until you show me an earlier one) WAS the Jacobin writer and also DSA member, Meagan Day.

The RW site says this tweet was the source in their article.





https://www.dailywire.com/news/warren-said-she-was-once-fired-for-being-pregnant-thats-not-what-she-said-before




The 'blogger' you are trying to dismiss is The Washington Examiner's Jeryl Bier





If you had followed my link you would have seen this already.

You are wrong, I am right. Until you show me a pre October 1st source for this RW-run-with smear, it is all on the Jacobin crowd via their writer Meagan Day, who kicked it all off.

Do you honestly think that the RW doesn't follow the extreme left's attack dogs?? The extreme left are a gold mine for smears and dirt on the other, non-Sanders Democratic candidates.



https://twitter.com/meaganmday/status/1179094207740313600

OCTOBER 1st



Bernie fishing for Pete voters, blaaaaaaa

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1234299309522325505

Pete speaking live now (Chasten is up first)

https://streamfare.net/msnbc_live_stream.html

538 just updated delegate projections, Bernie is plummeting, now under 25% chance to win outright

I think this might (not sure, but BS was higher earlier today) be the result of Pete dropping out

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/



Sad to see Pete drop out, but he did the right thing. I am now all on the Biden train, as we simply

must stop Sanders and then CRUSH Trump.

After Super Tuesday Klobuchar and Bloomberg absolutely need to drop out, as they both draw directly from Biden far more than anyone else now left and have zero path to winning.

I am so so proud of Pete, and he did his best to block Sanders in the first two crucial states, winning the most delegates in IA and tying Bernie in NH for delegates.

Go Joe!!!

Joe Biden — Donate via ActBlue

Democratic Underground for Joe

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/duforjoe

I am sending him some money and urge all to do the same!!!

WE CAN DO THIS!!!

Misfits - Night Of The Living Dead



Label:
Ruby Records ‎– JRR 804
Format:
Vinyl, LP, Album
Country:
US
Released:
Mar 1982
Genre:
Rock
Style:
Punk




Watford 3-0 Liverpool - Reds' unbeaten league run ended in stunning style



https://www.bbc.com/sport/live/football/50936081




Go to Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next »