StevenJoseph
StevenJoseph's JournalWhat Happens If the General Election Is Pushed past January 2021?
(Because the purpose of the Democratic Primaries is to choose a candidate for the General Election, I believe that a discussion of how delays in the Democratic Primaries might lead to one or more delays in the General Election is appropriate for this forum)
When individual states started talking about delaying their State Democratic Primaries to choose a nominee for President, and then actually started doing it, I was concerned. I was not so concerned about the delays themselves--I believe that the guy I like, Joe Biden, will win the nomination no matter how much the State Democratic Primaries are delayed. No, what concerned me was how a series of events might unfold:
1. Imagine that for the next few months, because the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to rage throughout our country unabated, that all of our State Democratic Primaries are delayed to at least June, and then at least after July 16, the current end of the Democratic National Convention.
2. Imagine that because of the delays in the Democratic State Primaries, the Democratic National Convention is pushed back a few months to September or October in order to allow the state primaries to finish before the Democratic National Convention.
3. Now imagine that before November, Republicans insist that the November Elections be pushed back in order to be sure that the primaries take place before the General Election. Just how far back can the General Election be pushed back? A new President is supposed to be inaugurated by the end of January. What exactly happens if, through one or more pushbacks in time, the General Election gets pushed back beyond the January 2021 inauguration date? Who exactly is President then? Let's look at several possibilities:
Scenario A: Let us assume that, as of the end of January, if no new election for President is held by then, Donald Trump and Mike Pence cease to be President and Vice President. If this is true, who would then be President? Succession should go next to the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, but Nancy Pelosi is also scheduled to get re-elected in November 2020. If a General Election is not held until after January, Speaker Pelosi's term will have expired, as well as every member of the U.S. House of Representatives, and about a third of the Senate, including Senate leader Mitch McConnell, who would normally succeed after the Speaker of the House Pelosi. Because of this possible scenario, I have a question: Can California hold their election for Nancy Pelosi, and in fact for all California U.S. House of Representatives members in November, even if the Republicans insist on no Presidential Election in November? Can the Democratic-leaning states around the country insist on their Congressional and Senate elections be held in November, even if the Republicans do not want the Presidential Election to happen in November? I ask this because in order for Nancy Pelosi to actually be Speaker of the House, she does need a majority in the House, which means that Democrats need enough states to hold the U.S. House of Representative elections before the end of January 2021 in order for Nancy Pelosi to hold a majority when Trump's and Pence's terms expire.
Also, can Nancy Pelosi maintain her majority if enough Red states do not hold their Congressional Elections? Can enough Blue states hold their Congressional elections in November separate from the Presidential Election to allow Nancy Pelosi to maintain her speakership?
Now, this whole discussion may seem academic to some people, except that some people are saying that we may be dealing with Coronavirus for 18 months, and except for the fact that Trump is barely lifting a finger to help end this pandemic. In addition, the fact that Rasmussen recently took a survey asking if voters actually supported a delay in the November presidential election. Rasmussen has been effectively operating as an arm of the Republican Party for years now, producing slanted surveys that always seem to grade Donald Trump higher than all of the other polls. If Rasmussen is asking questions about delaying the November elections, you can bet that the Republicans are thinking about it.
[link:https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/disease/25_are_ready_to_postpone_november_election|]
25% Are Ready to Postpone November Election
Thursday, March 19, 2020
One-in-four voters are prepared already to postpone the November presidential election – for the first time in U.S. history - if the coronavirus threat continues. Support is much higher for delaying upcoming primaries.
Scenario B: What if the Republicans argue that, because of the Coronavirus epidemic, and "because it is not fair to have Trump leave office without getting a chance for reelection" that Trump should simply remain in office until America gets around to having a Presidential election--even if that election is after January 2021? I could definitely see Republicans doing that. Will Republicans be able to both get a delay in the November elections and also manage to get Trump to remain in office past January even if his term has expired? How will we get Trump out of the White House if Republicans insist on this line of thought?
Scenario C: Here's something else to think about. What if one of the reasons that Trump is sitting on his ass so much and not doing much to help get out massive amounts of COVID-19 tests, and not forcing factories to make ventilators and masks, is that he hopes that a massive COVID-19 pandemic situation, still raging by November 2020, is his ticket to avoid getting defeated at the ballot box in November, and to stay in office past January? What if Trump actually has a huge motivation to *NOT* to fix the coronavirus pandemic because he thinks to let the pandemic rage will let him stay in office? What if the thing that most proves that Trump should be booted out of office, his nonaction on the pandemic, turns out to be the very thing that allows him to stay in office? Wouldn't that be ironic, don't ya think? Wouldn't that be horrific?
GOP Rep. Diaz-Balart Positive for COVID-19
Rep. Diaz-Balart Becomes 1st Member Of Congress To Announce Positive COVID-19 Test
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart says he has tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the first member of Congress to announce he has contracted the novel coronavirus.
Diaz-Balart, 58, voted on the House floor as recently as early Saturday morning, when lawmakers passed a coronavirus relief package.
Diaz-Balart, a Republican who represents Florida's 25th Congressional District, which includes Miami-Dade County, said in a statement that on Saturday evening he developed symptoms, including a fever and a headache.
Still think it's a hoax, Trump?
Democratic Senators can make competent Presidents:
Democratic Senators who went on to be Presidents.
Harry S. Truman (MO) 1935–1945 1945–1953
John F. Kennedy (MA) 1953–1960 1961–1963
Lyndon B. Johnson (TX) 1949–1961 1963–1969
Barack Obama (IL) 2005–2008 2009–2017
Truman continued FDR's policies and supervised the end of World War II. His defeat of Dewey in 1948 allowed for the continued expansion of America's middle class.
Kennedy inspired the world, handled the Cuban Missle Crisis extremely well, and set America on course to put a man on the moon, all in under 3 years.
Johnson made the mistake of believing Republican nonsense about the "Domino Theory" and how the expansion of Communism must be stopped at all costs. Thus he threw America headlong into the horrible Vietnam War. Yet his domestic policies, including those of pushing for Civil Rights, including the Voting Rights Act, and his policies regarding the War on Poverty were truly great.
Obama rescued America from the Great Recession and gave us Obamacare.
Democratic Senators know how to get legislation through Congress. Those who go on to be Vice Presidents, also have a fundamental understanding of how the White House is supposed to work. I am very happy that our Democratic nominee will have so much Senate experience and 8 years of Vice President experience. He is the perfect antidote to a President who understands so little about how the government is supposed to work.
I don't need to fall in love with the Democratic Nominee. I just need him to do his freaking job. I may not have agreed with everything that every previous Democratic President who was a former Senator did, but every Democratic Senator who went on to become President at least knew how do to their freaking jobs, and none of them simply ignored a crisis or pretended that it would magically go away.
538.com: Biden Has 96% Chance Of Getting Enough Delegates Before Convention.
Bernie has a 0.4% chance of getting enough delegates before the Democratic Convention.
[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo|]
Just One Of The Reasons That I Love African Americans
On Saturday, February 29, 2020, the members of the Democratic Party of South Carolina had a choice to make. Should they vote for the White guy from New England with lots of big promises, or should they vote for the White guy from Delaware, a state that is 21% African American, who spent 36 years trying to make life better for Black Americans, and then spent eight years working with Barack Obama pushing through legislation like Obamacare? Saturday night, we got our answer. The African Americans of South Carolina chose the guy who spent decades forging alliances with Black America and working with Black America over the guy from New England with big promises.
This is just one of the reasons why I love African Americans. They may have the finest sense of who to vote for of anyone in the last 50 years. It was Black America who came out in droves to vote for Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. It was Black America who was most resistant to Reagan's idea that tax cuts would pay for themselves. Finally, it was Black America who never once even considered voting for Donald Trump.
The strength of the Democratic Party has always been rooted in the South. Originally, the Democratic Party was the Party of White racist slaveowners, whose evil sense of economics allowed them to justify holding African Americans in bondage. However, when African Americans wisely forged an alliance first with Robert Kennedy, then John F. Kennedy, and then Lyndon Johnson, the Democratic Party moved from representing the forces of evil in the South to the forces of liberty in the South. The Democratic Party moved from being a big part of the problem to a huge part of the solution, and it was Black America, especially in the South, that led the way.
Since then, African Americans have had to ask themselves over and over again, "Who in America will help us to move things forward? Who spends more time making big promises, and who is interested in actually rolling up their sleeves and doing the work that needs to be done?" On Saturday, Black America choose the person who has spent decades working with Black Americans trying to make things better over the guy who made big promises. This is the very heart of wisdom. We should have expected nothing less from Black Americans for this is what they have always done. They are leading the way again. Who among us will wisely follow?
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