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Sloumeau

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Member since: Thu Dec 1, 2016, 04:01 PM
Number of posts: 2,483

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SurveyUSA: Biden over Trump 52% to 39% 11/20-11/21

Link:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5128ee79-1b59-4146-bf80-54906bb24d4b

Overview of the survey:
6 High-Profile Democrats All Defeat Dented Donald Trump in General Election 'Today'

* Joe Biden defeats Trump today by 13 points, 52% to 39%, Biden's largest lead. Trump falls below 40% for the first time.
* Bernie Sanders defeats Trump today by 12 points, 52% to 40%. Trump's 40% vs Sanders is a new low, Sanders' 52% is a new high.
* Elizabeth Warren defeats Trump today by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Warren's 49% is a new high, Trump's 42% vs Warren is a new low.
* Pete Buttigieg defeats Trump today by 7 points, 48% to 41%. Trump led in August.
* Michael Bloomberg defeats Trump today by 6 points, 46% to 40%. This is the first SurveyUSA poll to pair the two.
* Kamala Harris defeats Trump today by 5 points, 47% to 42%. Trump and Harris tied in September; 42% is a new low.

* Among Protestants, Trump had led Biden by 17, now 4.
* Among voters "able to save for a rainy day," Trump had led Biden by 10, now trails by 2.
* Among white middle-class voters, Trump had led Biden by 12, now 3.
* Among upper-income voters, Trump has never trailed Biden, but today is down by 7.
* Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they are "making ends meet," Biden once led by 6, now leads by 15.
* In the Midwest, Biden once led Trump by 3, now leads Trump by 14.

* Among white middle-class voters, Trump had led Buttigieg by 19, now 5.
* Among seniors, Trump had led Buttigieg by 3, now trails by 7.
* Among voters "able to save for a rainy day," Trump had led Buttigieg by 18, now 2.
* Among voters who attend religious services regularly, Trump had led Buttigieg by 28, now 13.
* Among Protestants, Trump had led Buttigieg by 23, now by 7.
* Among voters with no strong feelings either way about abortion, Trump had led Buttigieg by 7, now trails by 8.
* Among whites, Trump had led Buttigieg by 16, now 5.
* Among suburban men, Trump had led Buttigieg by 18, now 4.

If Mike Pence were at the top of the GOP ticket today, Pence does better than Trump against Buttigieg and Bloomberg, runs even with Trump against Warren, and does worse than Trump against Biden, Sanders, and Harris.

Lots of people are thinking about Iowa and New Hampshire.

What is interesting is, Joe Biden is just not that worried about Iowa and New Hampshire. Why Is That?

First of all, he knows that he could lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and still win the Democratic Nomination. How does he know this? Well, let's look at a little graphic chart from an NPR.org article entitled, "How Predictive Are Iowa And New Hampshire?":

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

Here's the graphic chart from that article:

https://ibb.co/JqB9cT6

From the blue section of the chart, where the Democrats are, one can see that in 1992 Bill Clinton won neither Iowa or New Hampshire, but Bill Clinton did go on to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

So, how did Bill Clinton end up winning the Democratic Nomination? Bill Clinton did it the same way Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama did it. They all won the South. You see, Democratic Candidates who are strong in the South are basically strong for one reason--they have strong support among African Americans. African Americans, being just as smart as Caucasians, look for a candidate who has a track record of looking out for them. They are powerful enough in the Democratic Party to pick winners and losers, and they are hard-working and dedicated enough to make sure that he or she rises to the top.

Joe Biden has been averaging polling in first place nationally for a long time, as one can see from the RealClearPolitics.com 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination page here:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

However, Biden has not been at the top of the polls in Iowa or New Hampshire lately. Why is that? It's because a lot of his support is in other parts of the country, like the South.

Some candidates are pretty strong with Caucasians but don't do so well with African Americans. Some of them will do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. However, some of those same people may not do so well in the South. If things continue as they have been in the past, the person who wins the South will win the nomination. I'm betting that that person will be Joe Biden, and I'm betting that he will win the Democratic Nomination even if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire. I've got my fingers crossed.

Biden Still Has The Best Average Of The RCP 2020 Democratic Nomination Polls

From the RealClearPolitics.com website in the 2020 Democratic Nomination Polls section where they average the polls [link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html|] , we get the following image:

https://ibb.co/tPZKLvq

I'm still trying to learn how to embed pictures on DU.

Biden is still in good shape!

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